BTC/USD - how not to be suprised.

Updated

Looking on different ideas i did notice something....... why so many analists (even the top ones) were suprised when BTC dropped on ~11700 ? Why most people though that we were in uptrend when we were not?

Before i started to analyze BTC i compared every exchange. I compared logarithmic and linear scales. I was looking for MOST accurate pattern that works for this coin. I didnt care about price, all i wanted is to make perfect draw to figure out BTC's next move.
Its funny what i found but.. USDT on Binance works best for me. Why? Maybe couse USDT takes BTC's price from every exchange and averages it? Maybe...

Look how clean and accurate this daily chart is. Look how accurate fib retracement level is.

Where are we now? Unfortunately 2 minutes before daily candle closed (I was there... watching for this moment) it was dragged down by bears to ~10600 level, just under 55FEMA/1D and under our huge resistance. This way today's daily candle can be named as "bulltrap candle". It looks like a shooting star for now, hope it will change. We are still in correction zone.

I hope i wont have to draw 4th green trend line.... coz it means 3k for us.

That's my first analyze published on TV. I Doubt u like it - its better to start with good news... :)

Stay tuned. This analyze will be updated.

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Since i posted my idea... lets look closer to daily and find the best scenario for us.

Lets say i'm BTC, i'm bullish and i want to figue out my best chance to crush that freaking wall... !!! I know i've been bulltrapped with yesterdays close. I know that i'm under 55FEMA, I was rejected few hours ago! My RSI is neutral.... What should i do now? What should i do now? Should i cry? Or.....

I know! I need a power, i need to gain momentum!
When can I geit it? When i'm oversold. Damn. Lets jump of that .682 Fibo (~9500lvl) once again and go through that resistance with full power when i dont have any smaller resistance on my way!

We'll see :) We are hovering in neutral zone for now.

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Ok. Since my friends are extremely bullish, here is extreme bullish scenario :)
If today's candle will close above wick of previous candle - around 10900USDT, we gonna see candlestick formation named "Three white soldiers". Its extremely bullish formation that can take us to the moon (next big resistance, even 13200 possible).

But watch out my friends! Bears will come, they come in the end of the day. Today's candle was dropped TWO minutes before close. We've got 4 hours and 9min to close that candle. Fingers crossed?:)

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Daily candle has just closed. Are we suprised? We knew what will happen 7 hours ago, right? We knew that bears will come in the end of the day.
I was carefully watching this daily candle and i noticed something great. On the last seconds it went up $30. Why is it important? Its body closed above yesterday's candle body. Does it make a difference? For me - It might...
We are bullish right now and we look for a breakout!
There is strong channel resistance at ~10k USDT, there is 0.618 fibo (~9500USDT that i mentioned before. We'll see. Thats no trading zone anyway.

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Lets make a small update, time to sell some good news. Remember yesterday's $30? As we can notice on 4H chart a new support has been made. We've got lovely downtrend rejection on 55MA/4H .

Last 4H candle closed as indecision candle but it's a first green 4H candle above our huge resistance, volume is still going up. Did we just woke up bears? Will 55MA/4H survive? Is is getting hot in here... ?
As usually... we'll see in 8 hours ;)

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Till we wait for our daily closed....,i've seen some drawings like this one. Do people really think that BTC and this market is so simple?? Do people really think that it will go straight to the moon? Do we analyze everyday's candle coz we cannot draw elliot wave with fib extension? Hmm... things to consider :)
Still i hope i'm wrong, i complicate things and we will see 15k in no time after some butterfly or elliot :))
I'll look for daily candles, i'll look for bulltraps. Bears want put us to the sleep and we cannot let them!

Take this picture as a funny one.

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me: Hellou Mr. Bitcoin! How You doin??
btc: I was fine, the whole day till....
me: Bears few minutes before day ended?
btc: How did you know? Damn Bears!
me: What you gonna do tomorrow my friend?
btc: Lets test some supports tomorrow! That would be great for my health! I wanna crush that 11100 wall!
me: See You tomorrow then!

We did open a new daily candle above 55MA/1D. We are still hovering in neutral zone with tiny tiny uptrend moves (6% today:D). We've got a big resistance on ~11100lvl (pink line). Volume is going down a litte bit.
Look at the green boxes. 1st one is our 55MA/1D candle, 2nd one is a place where 55MA/4H and our huge resistance (maybe huge support now?) meet. We might see it in action tomorrow. We need to break that 11100 line to reach 11700.

ps. This whole channel does look too good for me. I don't like it. Looks like a trap. Hope it's not a trap. Damn Bears, i know that you know that i know. We'll see tomorrow :)

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Also... we should consider our daily RSI. We will have to break some line realy soon 5 days max. The big question is.... which line we gonna break?

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Here is our 4H chart RSI. Today we've tested that channel. To be honest i was expecting it to break and test our supports but... Mr. Bitcoin refused to leave that channel. We'll see our daily candle in few hours.

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Lets have a closer look what happened today with Mr. Bitcoin.

1. The biggest problem with today's ride was that we started with 2 hour uptrend. What kind of problem? Psychological problem. People saw a shooting star and they started to sell... The daily candle would look much better during the day if we started with tiny downtrend.
2. We had a test of our 55MA/1H support. That was a beautiful bouce. It make us believe that 4H and 1D 55MA will work as good as this one.
3. In the end of the day.... You know the story. Its 6th day in a row where we close with red candle. Coincidence? I don't think so! (it's related to 1, its all about daily candle shape)

Finally we closed under 11100 (yesterday's daily candle wick). Nothing has changed so whats next? Probably hitting the same wall again. We'll see :)

ps. BTC dominance is growing. 41% right now.

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We had an extreme rally out here! 3 hours - 3,5%. That coused some of our favorite alts to drop of their supports. Our next resistance is 0.5fibo (press play button on the 1st draw :D)

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(sorry for spamming but...) Since people are concerned about BTC drop. Here's the technical data:
If we wont break our RSI channel we are good.
If this channel will break we've got many supports on our way since Mr. Bitcoin is crushing many resistance points right now.
Correction is expected as always but it's bulls time right now. U can notice that when bears struggle with daily candles.

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New support for our supports collection. Hope this one holds and new daily will open above it.

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0.5 fibo support is gone, Bears came to visit us early today. We are fighting to keep the clear uptrending channel.

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Bulls pulled up. There is a huge fight on 0.5 fibo line. Last time i was so exited when i saw Iguana vs Snakes (Planet Earth II)

We've got one hour to see that daily candle!

youtube.com/watch?v=Rv9hn4IGofM

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What a day! Bulls pulled up, the 4H candle closed as a hammer! Daily candle closed above 0.5 FIB! Thats the perfect scenario for bulls. Next target? 11700 then 12700.

U guys should see BTCUSDSHORTS chart today ;) Bears are running.

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Our 4H RSI channel was finally broken , we had a small corretion. 11200 (old resistance) works as a support now. We might use one more support before reaching new highs of this uptrend.

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Ok. Yesterday we saw a big fight. That was nice. But today..... that was crazy!! Have u noticed that pullback? We've made 3% in 2 hours. C'mon!

I was expecting to see some A B C pattern. I was waiting to test 10700 resistance tomorrow but now...... This is really really bullish right now. Look at that pullback on a daily. We closed about 0.5 fibo again!

Hard to say what can happen tomorrow....... we'll see....

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Hello Bitcoin lovers,

As i said before, i was expecting some retrace yesterday. Everything was fine till wave B (uptrend wave). Wave B was a lot higher than i expected - it shouldnt be like that.
It was... 1AM, i started thinking, making some draws and here's what i've got. I know i said before its crazy to follow that kind of idea but lets think about it again!

Lets look on it:
1. Wave 1 on my draw didnt start with 6k. Why? I was counting small waves on that spot. There Was some ABCDE before that. I know that everyone else got it too long and fib extension doesnt work.
2. Fib extension works great for this draw. Retracement of wave2 did hit golden pocket zone.
3. 0.618 fib extension is located ON THE SAME SPOT as 0.5 fibo for this whole draw.
4. 0.786 fib extension is in perfect spot - it is located on the Feb 28 high ($12000) - next resistance.
5. 1.0 fib extension is located on the 20.01 high ($12700) - another resistance.
6. Finally... wave 3 is always located somewhere between 1 ext and 1.618 ext. Guess what we've got? 0.382 with ~$13300.

I would love to see some constructive comments to prove that we are wrong in here :) I dont like this draw - its too perfect,its too possitive and we cannot be that possitive (hello Bears!).

Please DON'T FOLLOW that idea blindly. Thats just one of 1000 ideas in my head - we need more proof. Everything can happen.

ps. wave4 should go lower - i just dont want to draw it again (for now) :)

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Yeah... i expected the correction 2 days ago, not today...

I dont like that we did hit double top. If correction was 2days ago, we would be in the perfect shape to continue the ride but now we have to be cautious.

On the daily i draw some key support levels. There are a lot of them so there is no place to panic. It might be usefull for swing traders.

For now... we can jump back to 11400lvl (0.5 fibo) to fight back against 11700 or we will test 11000 supports. Time will tell...

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Bouned off trendline, supported by 55EMA. Will it hold? We'll see.

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I said that we need to test SOME supports. Not all of them!!
Press play button on the 1st chart. Looks like we did some important test today.

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No worries guys, not yet!
Daily candle crossed our trendline but stay calm. We need the whole body of candle to close under that trend line to confirm downtrend.
If we close tomorrow's daily candle above 9580... we are good.

Good sighs:
We did touch 0.65 fibo - the golden pocket - BTC loves to bounce of it. They daily RSI still looks good - its in neutral zone.

All the data says that we might be going up. As usually.... we'll see.

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Lets see our daily update. We had a HUGE recovery back to golden pocket zone BUT we also had rejection from our trendline. Looks like we are in the downtrend zone. We need to open above 9500 in next 2 days to get out of that zone!

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Daytraders.. here's some usefull info for You :)

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We are on the wall again. Fingers crossed guys. We need to cross that 9500 zone in the end of the day and we are good!

MichalDz

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