Hold on to short position at $37.7 and wait for trend to develop
Updated
3 scenarios for
1. (Up case) Up then Correction
- BTC can touch 40k (some technical shows that btc full reach for this wave is 48k, but I think it’s too stretch, especially now the approval window is behind us). After reaching this upper level, correction is due to happen
- BTC cycle also suggest that 28th Nov should be the peak for this current wave
2. (Flat case) Consolidate then Up
- BTC consolidate here around 37k - 35k above the MA200 and break out of the pattern to the upside
- 34k area is Point of Control (POC) shown in Visual Range Volume Profile (I couldn’t show on tradingview here as I haven’t update my account yet, but you can see on Binance BTC chart, enable Visual Range Volume Profile technical indicator)
- Volume Profile formed a B shape (one at 26k - 27K, one at 34k) so technically speaking it’s an uptrend continuous indicator
- In the case of ranging, the POC will act like a magnet so price can go to 34k, also the longer the price is trading within the value area the higher the chance it will visit the Value Area Low (VHL) at 33k
3. (Down case) Down then Up
- If broken below the area above, price will aim for area of 30k- 31k which has been retested. Below that is 25k - 26k but I doubt we ever get to here by Jan24, as people are still speculating on ETF approval
- Once bounce from the support level, price will carry on its bullish wave
What I think will happen
1. (Up case) Up then Correction
- BTC can touch 40k (some technical shows that btc full reach for this wave is 48k, but I think it’s too stretch, especially now the approval window is behind us). After reaching this upper level, correction is due to happen
- BTC cycle also suggest that 28th Nov should be the peak for this current wave
2. (Flat case) Consolidate then Up
- BTC consolidate here around 37k - 35k above the MA200 and break out of the pattern to the upside
- 34k area is Point of Control (POC) shown in Visual Range Volume Profile (I couldn’t show on tradingview here as I haven’t update my account yet, but you can see on Binance BTC chart, enable Visual Range Volume Profile technical indicator)
- Volume Profile formed a B shape (one at 26k - 27K, one at 34k) so technically speaking it’s an uptrend continuous indicator
- In the case of ranging, the POC will act like a magnet so price can go to 34k, also the longer the price is trading within the value area the higher the chance it will visit the Value Area Low (VHL) at 33k
3. (Down case) Down then Up
- If broken below the area above, price will aim for area of 30k- 31k which has been retested. Below that is 25k - 26k but I doubt we ever get to here by Jan24, as people are still speculating on ETF approval
- Once bounce from the support level, price will carry on its bullish wave
What I think will happen
- I hope for an early correction because I think it would be more healthy for the next wave, also because I’m biased that I want to buy into BTC at lower range
- But I think Scenario 2 is more likely (happening now)
- If Scenario 3 happen it will be a quick up and then down
Note
CZ stepped down as CEO of BinanceUltimately I think this is a good move for Binance and market overall: pay the fine, gain new clean slates for both the exchange and individual i.e. less likely more fuds in the future. This move also prep up the regulatory landscape in the US i.e. all exchanges are being complied, with this our chance for ETF is one step closer
Re market, I don’t think it is an one-off news, markets can just sake it off and rally i.e. at the end of the day, this is CEO of the largest crypto exchange. Since the correction is due anway, why don’t take advantage of this news and correct so we can go back up healthy
Re technical, a breakdown on ascending wedges has been formed on Daily and 4H charts. We should expect a retrace here and maybe it’s a slow bleed
Note
#7 Newsletter: Week 04.12.23 - 10.12.23- Inflation has cooled (FED give dovish sentiment re interest rate)
- The bond market has made a jump in its best month since 1985. Tradition markets are pumping (but SPX soon face key resistant level). The US Dollar is up against the resistance of the 200-day MA
- ETF news for January continues to speculate
BTC broke above 38.5k but currently stay below 40k. BTC is following scenario 2 after 3 weeks consolidation, 4th week may bring volatility
As said in the newsletter #6, this week finished analysing all 344 alts charts on Binance. Out of all,
- A huge proportion of the remaining is still in down trend with no valid patterns though in many cases these already increased +50% from bottom
- 133 coins are dogshit, so I expect the delist will carry on for many more times to refresh the slate for Binance
- Only 12 are qualified as “top priority” (mostly Layer 1/infra, AI, Gaming) and these are already popular among people: ARKM, BNB, ETH, ILV, IMX, INJ, LINK, MATIC, SOL, WLD, XRP, XTZ. So I expect coins which had spotlight will remain attractive and new coins will gain exposure too
- I also prepared a DCA plan for BTC for 3 scenarios: Down/Jan ETF/ March ETF, which all end up to be around 38k-39k average. (Saylor overall holdings is 174,530 BTC, averaging around $30,252 per coin)
Trade Ideas
- If I already had BTC, I will keep the position, it can be a potential 20% up move vs. 10% down move at this level.
- If I don’t have BTC, I wait for next move to develop before I get into BTC. I don’t get into Alts either, for the 10% easily downside risk, I would just rather hold BTC even at this level willing for +10% downside risk.
Note
#8 Newsletter: Week 04.12.23 - 10.12.23- Though I am mindful (secretly wishful) that market should correct, there is possibility that this will go further up beyond 48k e.g some analysis already stated talking about mega cycle to 100k before halving (is it a top signal?)
1. As suggested in my #2 newsletter post "The 4th Bull Run may come earlier than expected !", the bull market did come early. This 7 week rally remind me of the time when I was still market making for a prop trade company where we knew about futures approval 3 months before the official announcement.
2. BTC.D also followed as forecast, details in "BTC is building for an up move then likely correct" post
3. BTC price followed as forecast in this post too
- I now filter 244 coins to pick a portfolio allocation. Also prep a plan with detailed steps of how 21 ways to make money in this bull cycle (really amazed by how the space have developed with tools for DYOR since the last time I actively trade it in 2017 and 2020)
Trade Ideas
- No opportunity to get in BTC yet
- Looking at ETH or other major Alt as an alternative to catch up with BTC in case it goes further parabolic (most of ALT/BTC is still down under the MA, so this may provide a way to catch up)
Note
#9 Newsletter: Week 18.12.23 – 24.12.23Patience is key now
- SP500 and other tradtional markets broke above resistant
- No rate hike but in fact talk about 3 potential cuts in 2024
- A minor correction down to lower high (above 38k), but the closer it get to ETF day, the less magnitude the correction may be, it may turn out to be up-consolidate-up again till the major cycle correction.
- Likewise, several talk about the major cycle down leg happen from mid Jan
- ETF debatable whether it is a sell event
- ETH, BNB still not yet move, currently underperform with no real divergence. we still have chance to catch a run up on Q1/24
- Several alt coins on top list have been doing pullback for the last 2 week e.g RUNE, MKR, ILV ... end of Nov marked current resistant for several coins
Still busy next week, but I will make time to update a new bitcoin chart for new post.
Note
#10 Newsletter: Week 25.12.23 – 31.12.23Main Points ✍
- After 1 red week, previous week turn green again
- No major changes, just some alt take turn to break out
- Mkt is waiting for ETF news on early Jan
News
1. Not much happened, except for Hongkong authorities is now open for BTC ETF application
2. Solona flipped BNB to become the 4th largest coin
3. ETH Dencun upgrade was delayed from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024, about timing for a break out
It’s a waiting game now (at least for me)
Note
BTC hit +45k on speculation that ETF approval will be announced on Wednesday or Thursday (before 5th Jan 24). I would wait for the event to unfold before making a new chart for 2024re ALT market,
- many of those, which already pumped, stalled for the last 7 - 10 days and did correction
- some of which managed to do a follow up pump after correction/consolidation
- several other atls have managed to break out a bit. but the overall market is still building up patterns for break out
see you soon in our first newsletter of 2024
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.