Hi thanks for taking the time to read my analysis.
So what seemed like a strong bullish move to break through the major resistance zone has now found itself struggling to make a higher move.
Sure we have some wicks and a little candle body above the .618, but until we see either a strong move with volume or continued movement past this resistance area, I am unconvinced that we will see higher prices for now.
Like I had mentioned over a week ago in my ideas, there is a possibility that this entire move is replicating the 6k fractal on a smaller scale and we could see a similar but not identical double top formation.
Double-top here at a major resistance area will likely lead to a drop.
One other thing to note is basically every alt coin is in the red right now. Several have already hit their major resistances and have already starting falling.
I’m starting to think the delay of this drop is due to money leaving alts and into bitcoin then finally out of bitcoin into tether or fiat. If this is true, then a drop becomes even more likely.
In addition, I am also witnessing several divergences on the 4 hour, 6 hour, and even the 12 hour time frames. See indicators on chart above.
There is a divergence on the RSI, the OBV, and the CMF. In fact, there has been a divergence on the CMF since the first April high around 8.2k which is telling me an incoming drop is looming in the background.
I am going to stick to my original prediction I almost 2 weeks ago which calls for a rejection at the major resistance zone and a drop down to 8.4-8.5k range where the .382 sits.
If momentum keeps up with the drop, the next target is the major support area around 7.5-7.6k at the .236 fib level.
It’s much too soon to predict a drop going that far, but since I am also seeing big divergences on higher time frames (including a huge hidden bearish divergence…see below), it’s definitely a strong possibility.
For now, we need the price to stay under the last high where the price wicked to 9.8k. We need to see a strong drop with heavy volume to confirm any of the above indicators.
If the price continues to surge up, all of those divergences are useless and will no longer be divergences if they oscillate too high.
If you are already long, make sure you set your stop loss where you find appropriate for your type of trading. If you are out of the market, stay out until we get confirmation of breakout past the .618 fib. At which point a breakout of the major resistance zone will trigger a long order.
Key
S1 = Resistance-turned support trend line formed from Dec 2017 high (19.7k) through recent April 2018 highs
S2 = Resistance-turned-support trend line formed from the Dec 2017 high (19.7k) through Jan 2018 high (17k) to 11.7k reaction high.
S3 = Support trend line formed from Sept 2017 low (2.8k) through Feb 2018 low (6k) and beyond
S4 = Support trend line formed from Sept 2017 low (2.8k) through April 2018 lows
So what seemed like a strong bullish move to break through the major resistance zone has now found itself struggling to make a higher move.
Sure we have some wicks and a little candle body above the .618, but until we see either a strong move with volume or continued movement past this resistance area, I am unconvinced that we will see higher prices for now.
Like I had mentioned over a week ago in my ideas, there is a possibility that this entire move is replicating the 6k fractal on a smaller scale and we could see a similar but not identical double top formation.
Double-top here at a major resistance area will likely lead to a drop.
One other thing to note is basically every alt coin is in the red right now. Several have already hit their major resistances and have already starting falling.
I’m starting to think the delay of this drop is due to money leaving alts and into bitcoin then finally out of bitcoin into tether or fiat. If this is true, then a drop becomes even more likely.
In addition, I am also witnessing several divergences on the 4 hour, 6 hour, and even the 12 hour time frames. See indicators on chart above.
There is a divergence on the RSI, the OBV, and the CMF. In fact, there has been a divergence on the CMF since the first April high around 8.2k which is telling me an incoming drop is looming in the background.
I am going to stick to my original prediction I almost 2 weeks ago which calls for a rejection at the major resistance zone and a drop down to 8.4-8.5k range where the .382 sits.
If momentum keeps up with the drop, the next target is the major support area around 7.5-7.6k at the .236 fib level.
It’s much too soon to predict a drop going that far, but since I am also seeing big divergences on higher time frames (including a huge hidden bearish divergence…see below), it’s definitely a strong possibility.
For now, we need the price to stay under the last high where the price wicked to 9.8k. We need to see a strong drop with heavy volume to confirm any of the above indicators.
If the price continues to surge up, all of those divergences are useless and will no longer be divergences if they oscillate too high.
If you are already long, make sure you set your stop loss where you find appropriate for your type of trading. If you are out of the market, stay out until we get confirmation of breakout past the .618 fib. At which point a breakout of the major resistance zone will trigger a long order.
Key
S1 = Resistance-turned support trend line formed from Dec 2017 high (19.7k) through recent April 2018 highs
S2 = Resistance-turned-support trend line formed from the Dec 2017 high (19.7k) through Jan 2018 high (17k) to 11.7k reaction high.
S3 = Support trend line formed from Sept 2017 low (2.8k) through Feb 2018 low (6k) and beyond
S4 = Support trend line formed from Sept 2017 low (2.8k) through April 2018 lows
Note
Here are the hidden bearish divergences on the Daily time frame. Also take note of the fact that the 50MA hasn't crossed back up above the 200MA yet. It's so close to it but if this drop happens and they pull further away from each other, things will turn bearish very quickly (I used Bitfinex on this chart to better represent the 200MA compared to Binance). Note
The bulls just keep pushing this thing higher! They were finally able to successfully break the major resistance zone but we are now at the psychological barrier of $10k. Chances are pretty good the bulls will clear this with the next resistance at the .786 fib level (10.5k). However if they are unable to get past 10k, keep in mind those divergences above are all still in play. You won't be able to see them by clicking play on my chart, the indicators do not play forward with the play button. So make sure you mark up your charts like mine on the 4 hour time frame on these indicators so you can keep an eye on it yourself. Remember I made it clear that if these indicators push higher with the price, the divergences will be wiped out and will no longer be reliable. As I type this now, they are still fully in play so we must keep this in the back of our heads even as the bulls keep trying to push full steam ahead.Note
And finally, there is the first drop! Not sure how far the bulls are going to let this go, here is the butterfly advanced harmonic I posted the other day: 
Target 1 has been reached, let's see if it bounces here or continues its drop to the second target
Note
Price is back in the major resistance zone again. Keep your eye on 0.618 fib level around 9700, this is an area that will need to be broken for bullish momentum to continue. If it cannot break, look at my last update with the butterfly harmonic pattern and we should expect price to reach the 2nd target of that pattern (around 9.2k)Note
Okay finally bitcoin is falling like it's supposed to be! Still have some supports left to deal with before more downside. Right now the priceh as found support on the 0.5 fib level in confluence with the S1 Support line (see key above for more information on S1). That blue line I drew was a shorter term trend line that I meant to delete before publishing this idea, but regardless it is also acting as support now. If bearish momentum keeps up and we break these support levels, the next support is the .382 fib level around 8.4-8.5k area where I predicted it to fall weeks ago in an earlier idea. I am still sticking to that plan, and chances are higher now that we have dropped from that last supportNote
Nice bear flag is forming now. We could possibly see something like this play out: Price should stay below 9250ish for this to remain valid. Target for price drop is right around 8.8k which is our next strong support level
Note
Looking like it wants to keep dropping but that S1 trend line and the 0.5 fib level are holding up and providing strong support. The movement we saw upwards over the past 6 hours or so has meet resistance from the 200MA on the 2hr time frame. That is just under 9300, so if price breaks above this then the short-term is looking more bullish. On the flip side, if price breaks below the S1 trend line/0.5 fib level then it will most likely drop to 8.8k. I should've drawn a support for 8.8k when I made this chart because it has been a solid support and I think that will be the first place the price settles on before my 8.4-8.5k target (IF it drops more, of course).For now we remain patient, and allow the market to decide the direction we go. We will not force a trade here!
Note
Bitcoin had a strong bounce from the S1 support trend line overnight. The price even wicked down to S2 support line before bouncing. If the price fell below both trend lines, we would have seen a rapid selloff but for now it is providing support and both will remain areas to keep a close eye on if price falls back down today.
On the upside we see that the price is currently struggling to break the 200MA on the 2hr time frame. If price can break here, next resistance is 9.4k which is where the 200MA rests on 1hr time frame.
I don’t see these resistances as being too strong so there’s a good chance the price can break through both of these areas. The stronger resistance is at the R1 trend line right around 9600, this will be a critical area to watch.
There is a chance that 9k was bottom at least for the shorter term so keep that in mind if you are looking to short, but if price doesn’t break the R1 trend line then things will resume looking bearish. I will update as we get closer to that price range, could take a couple days or so.
Key
S1 = Resistance-turned support trend line formed from Dec 2017 high (19.7k) through 9.7k and 9.5k (April)
S2 = Support trend line formed from 8.5k (April) through recent reaction lows
R1 = Support-turned-resistance trend line formed from Sept 2017 low (2.8k) through Feb 2018 low (6k) and beyond
Note
Very short term outlook: Note
And here comes the dump! We blasted past the 2 targets on harmonic pattern above, but it did reverse right at the PRZ! The volume on this drop in such a short period of time is telling me this will drop a lot more. Currently, the 0.5 fib level is holding as support, if that breaks, below that is the S1 support line. I'll update later if anything else happensNote
Update: So despite the small rise in price from the 0.5 fib level yesterday, the price met resistance at the bottom of my major resistance zone as well as the 200MA (in orange).
A couple updates ago I said that if the price doesn’t break the R1 trend line above (in pink) then things would continue to look bearish for Bitcoin.
Now that we fell quite a bit today, the price seems to be finding a little bit of support around the S1 trend line. There could possibly be a small rally overnight, but I wouldn’t expect the price to get past the 0.5 fib and/or the S2 trend line.
When the bearish momentum continues, the minor support is at 8.8k and if that breaks down then the next support is at the .382 fib retrace (8.4/8.5k), which is an area I have been targeting for weeks and that still remains valid.
Key
S1 = Resistance-turned support trend line formed from Dec 2017 high (19.7k) through 9.7k and 9.5k (April)
S2 = Support trend line formed from 8.5k (April) through recent reaction lows
R1 = Support-turned-resistance trend line formed from Sept 2017 low (2.8k) through Feb 2018 low (6k) and beyond
Note
Wow we finally made it down to the .382 fib level!!! As many of my followers know, I have been calling for this target for 3 weeks now and here we are today :)
So this is an area that I was expecting to see a bounce, at least for the shorter term. But the market looks very weak, the price just fell under the 200MA support on the 4hr time frame and so far now I don’t see any clear signs of a reversal yet.
I am more of a swing trader in this market so I’m looking for the big reversals and so this was an area I expected to see a bounce if we did fall…but the severity of this drop is now making me question whether or not that will happen.
For now I am going to watch that .382 fib retrace and see how the price reacts to this area. I will be looking out for bullish divergences on the 1 hour time frame on RSI, CMF, and other indicators. Trying to catch a bottom here is very risky, and I am perfectly okay with re-entering the market after a big bounce even if I miss out on some profits. I’d much rather miss out on some profits, then catch a falling knife and lose money. So I’ll keep my eye out on this area and if I see strong reversal signals, I will create a new idea to reflect this.
If price continues to fall below the .382 fib retrace, the next support area is around 8k and support below that is at the green major support zone.
Note
Looks to be another bear flag forming. I don't see true strength in this at all, nearly every alt is still in the red too. I think this bear flag will break down, but for now watch that support! I am going to make a new idea soon, this one has too many updates and my fibs should be reversed since we are now falling down. I will try to get this out later today when I am back home at my computer!Note
Could possibly see something like this play out if bulls cannot push this out of the bear flag: Note
Well that worked out...right on time too! Price is falling hard and looks like its dropping below the .382 fib level. I'll have a new idea soon, I apologize for the delays. Note
Another drop possible if this breaks Note
And another successful bear flag followed through just after I posted the last update and it also bounced around the 8.2k region where I said to keep and eye on. We saw a small bounce from there overnight, but looks to be falling back down already. If 8.2k cannot provide a bounce again this time, we will see more downside and the major support zone will be the next area to watch out for. On the upside, 8.6k is the next resistance level.Note
It looks like bitcoin is weakening a bit right now. There’s a good chance the price is going to drop back down to re-test the S3 support line after failing to break R1 right around the .382 fib level. The S3 support line is also in line with the 0.5 fib retrace to help provide extra support as well if it does fall from here. If it doesn’t fall right now, the highest price it will hit is most likely 8,800 before falling.
S3 = Support trend line formed from reaction lows starting from April 13 through present.
R1 = Resistance trend line formed from Dec 2017 high (19.7k) through 9.7k and 9.5k (April)
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.