$BTC Bitcoin completing EW sequence

Updated

Its been argued among many holders and hopium that BTC's bear market has been completed (which could be true).
I remain skeptical, unless BTC cracks the 0.5 FIB level and then successfully retests the current low with a higher lower.
For the moment, I'm keeping my wave count as is, labelling the current low as a wave ((3)) with the current move up as a corrective rally wave ((4)), which typically retraces 0.236-0.382 but cannot retrace past the 0.5. If it does, then we favor the correction as completed, or its possible that a double correction could be in play with current move as a WXY connector to extend lower against the current low.
TIME WILL TELL.
For now, we trade what's available and count the waves according to the data that's been printed.

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POV:
Wave 4 retracement failed to reach 0.236:

0.236 retracement was reached from this level:

wave (5) ending wave ((3)) was calculated, target that was reached on 3 difference calculations:

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Favorable Count:

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EW count doesnt have to be 'perfect' just as long as it respects the rules and reaches the calculated targets without breaching past

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How can 1 monthly candle be 'the bottom' and carry a NEW bull run/market?
Should it not get few months of consolidation and building support to carry us into +100k ?
What's a big fancy luxurious house with a small weak skinny foundation?
That's a house most likely to collapse n break
Just a POV to think about

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Global Trendline was broken.
This could take few years to rebuild.
Local trendline shows price returning lower

Bounces are trendline are normal. What we see is price action bouncing and creating bulltrap before breaking down towards lower trendlines.
Patterns tend to repeat.

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These last few trendlines that are left, I refere to them as 'hopium lines'
hope and prey that they do not break
2 global trendlines that are done.
1 last major trendline from 2013 that's left as support, if it breaks, down we go

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another POV based on previous local tops
BTC tops may be in or very close
best to keep an eye on global financial markets as well

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IF its TRULEY bullish, can mimick previous pattern to continue pushing higher

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BTC wave 4 INVALIDATION
Bitcoin has retraced past the 0.5 FIB which means the move up can not be counted as a wave 4 bearish rally.
The only other bearish counts that we can consider at this point is that the move down from 69k to 15.8k was wave 1 and the current move up is the wave 2 (ABC) corrective rally which *can* extend up to maximum 0.786 fib (57.5k)
or
the current move up is a double correction through a WXY connector.
Both of these 2 bearish counts right now are probability-wise LESS likely to be the correct count (possible but least likely).

Personally I don't believe the corrective bear market is 'over' or that the low is in, but until the market provides us more data to favor this, we have to interpret the market data for what it is and NOT what we believe/want.

So we'll keep that in mind moving forward, but we're adjusting the wave count to reflect the data based on validation points.

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Wave 1 in progress, similar to previous wave 4 count, is close to completing its sequence.
Wave 2 (correction) can retrace up to 0.786 the move.
Considering how long wave 1 is taking to complete, we can anticipate that wave 2 will take as long if not longer.
We can also anticipate lots of trading action that we'll be looking to trade in between the bounces (long and short) to accumulate more coins.
I will also anticipate similar bulltrap into bear trap ending to wave 2 (similar to covid crash)

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an alternative corrective BEAR count, a triple correction to correct 3 different sequences (The 5 waves started from Dec 2018 low. The 5 wave cycle overall and the 5 cycles that started on day 1).
This makes 3 different degrees of 5 wave structures while the Nov 2022 69k high counts as the 5th cycle for Bitcoin to complete its 1st ever SUPERCYCLE.
Its just theory based on EW principles, and I can easily be incorrect about labelling it. Either way, we wont know until its too late.
So in the bull case if this is truely the 1st wave, then wave 2 will correct and most likely take over a year to complete with successful a retest of the low (a true "higher-low" similar to the covid crash low against the 2018 low).

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EW count of entire BTC history since it first began trading publicly.
Its the BLX chart which was referred to as "Brave New Coin", this is the original BTC chart that many don't know about. Still looking to find older charts that show sub 1c price action prior to July 2010

CryptoHolix

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