Start of decline: Below 97821.58
Updated
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The Market Cap chart will be updated again when a new candle is created.
I think the gap increase of USDT, USDC is a trace of funds flowing in.
The increase in BTC dominance means that funds are concentrated on BTC.
You cannot predict the rise and fall of BTC with BTC dominance.
The rise in USDT dominance is likely to be reflected in the decline of the coin market.
The start of the decline in the coin market is expected to begin when it rises above 4.97 and is maintained.
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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)
The point to watch is whether the StochRSI indicator shows a downward trend from the 100 point or whether it switches to a state where StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
Since the StochRSI indicator is a lagging indicator, you can know the exact value when a new candle is created.
However, if there is a change in the value of the StochRSI indicator when a movement occurs, it means that an important point has been passed.
In that sense, the fact that the StochRSI indicator is maintained at the 100 point despite the current price decline means that an important point has not been passed.
However, there may be fluctuations in the StochRSI indicator value when a new candle is created while the price is falling.
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(1D chart)
The HA-High indicator is expected to be created at 101947.24.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can be supported near 101947.24.
If not, it falls and shows resistance near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator or 97821.58, there is a possibility of meeting the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
Therefore, before meeting the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart, you should check whether it is supported near 87.8K-89K or whether the HA-Low indicator or BW(0) indicator is newly created.
If the HA-Low indicator or BW(0) indicator is generated, it is important to see if there is support in the vicinity.
If the HA-Low indicator is generated, it is expected that the current wave will end and a movement to create a new wave will begin.
The start of the decline is expected to start when it falls below 97821.58.
The volatility period is around December 27 (maximum December 26-28).
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
In the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
As you can see from the LOG chart, the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the upward trend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the upward wave.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the upward trend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you to decide how to view and respond to this.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
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Note
#BTCUSDT.P
The key is whether it can rise above 101938.08.
To do so, the point to watch is whether it can rise above 97944.4-98921.4.
If it fails to rise above 97944.4-98921.4, it is possible that it will touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
Before meeting the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart,
1st: 91.9K-93.5K
2nd: 87.7K-88.6K
We need to check whether it is supported and rising near the 1st and 2nd above.
Note
#BTCUSDT
Since the BW auxiliary indicator is maintained above the 50 point, we can see that the upward strength is still strong.
#ETHUSDT
Since the BW auxiliary indicator has fallen below the 50 point, we can see that the downward strength is getting stronger.
Since the positions of the BW auxiliary indicators for BTC and ETH are different, if BTC shows a slight downward trend, ETH is likely to show a larger downward trend.
However, since BTC is still showing a stronger upward trend, I think it is likely to fluctuate up and down even if it falls.
Therefore, we need to check the values of the BW indicator and StochRSI indicator when a new candle was created on the 1D chart.
Since the StochRSI indicator is curr
Trade active
#BTCUSDT
As the price falls, the StochRSI indicator is showing a decline from the 100 point.
The point to watch is whether it falls to around the 50 point when a new candle is created.
I think a rapid decline in the StochRSI indicator can be a sign of rapid recovery.
Note
Since BTC has not yet shown a bottom signal, caution is required when trading.
Even if the altcoin itself shows a bottom signal, if BTC does not show a bottom signal, it is highly likely that it will eventually fall, so investment weight adjustments are required and split trading should be used.
Note
#BTCUSDT
The key is whether it can rise above 101947.24.
To do so, the point of observation is whether it can rise above 97821.58-98892.0.
There are several movements that can be seen as a bottom signal.
In the case of BTC, it is currently in a state of rebound after a vertical decline, so in order to turn from this form to an upward trend, it must rise above at least 97821.58-98892.0 and show support.
If not, it is likely to show a gradual decline again.
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Looking at the Mom indicator, the Momentum indicator shows a rise above the 0 point, so it is a buying period.
However, since it has not yet risen above the Signal indicator, it is difficult to say that an upward trend has begun.
Since there is a divergence in the Momentum indicator, the DMI indicator was added to confirm this.
The line of the DMI indicator corresponds to the ADX indicator, and the color indicates the correlation between +D and -D.
Orange means +D > -D.
Aqua means +D < -D.
Therefore, when the ADX indicator shows an upward trend,
- If it is expressed in Orange, it means that the upward strength is getting stronger.
- If it is expressed in Aqua, it means that the downward strength is getting stronger.
If the ADX indicator shows a downward trend or is expressed in black, it is not interpreted.
Note
#BTCUSDT
It is showing an upward breakout of the 97821.58-98892.0 section.
The key is whether it can receive support near 98892.0 and rise above 101947.24.
If it receives support near 97821.58-98892.0, it is highly likely to rise further.
However, it must break out of the high point boundary section of 101947.24-106133.74 to continue the upward wave.
Since there is no movement called the bottom section, the current movement can be seen as sideways or creating a pull back pattern.
Looking at my chart, it can be seen that the movement to create the bottom section has begun when the HA-Low indicator is touched.
Note
It can be used on all time frame charts and the interpretation is the same.
When the Momentum indicator rises above the Signal indicator, if the BW(0) indicator is created and shows support, it is a time to buy (LONG).
When the Momentum indicator rises above the 0 point, if the HA-Low indicator is created and shows support, it is a time to buy.
When the BW(0) indicator and the HA-Low indicator are created and rise and then fall again, if the color of the ADX line is expressed in Aqua and the Momentum indicator is located below the 0 point, it is a time to sell (SHORT).
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When the Momentum indicator falls below the Signal indicator, if the BW(100) indicator is generated and shows resistance, it is a sell (SHORT) time.
When the Momentum indicator falls below the 0 point, if the HA-High indicator is generated and shows resistance, it is a sell (SHORT) time.
When the BW(100) indicator and HA-High indicator are generated and fall and then rise again, if the color of the ADX line is expressed in orange and the Momentum indicator is located above the 0 point, it is a buy (LONG) time.
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The BW(0) and HA-Low indicators start the movement to create a bottom section by indicating the low point boundary section.
In other words, since the current wave is initialized, a movement to create a new wave will be shown.
However, since it is a low point boundary section, if it falls below that section, there is a possibility of a stepwise decline, so investment weight adjustment is necessary.
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BW(100), HA-High indicators indicate a high point boundary section, so if it rises based on this section, there is a possibility of a stepwise upward trend.
However, since it is located in the high point section, investment weight adjustment is necessary when entering for the first time.
Meeting the BW(100), HA-High indicators means that the current wave will be initialized and a movement to create a new wave will be shown.
Note
USDT is a stable coin used worldwide.
USDC is still a stable coin used a lot in the United States.
That's why the movements are bound to be different.
Therefore, I think that USDT funds have more influence on the coin market than USDC funds.
What we need to pay attention to is whether USDT maintains an upward trend while creating a gap.
If USDT creates a gap and shows a downward trend, the coin market is likely to show a downward trend.
Currently, USDC is showing a gap up, but USDT is showing a gap down.
The rise in BTC dominance means that funds are concentrated toward BTC.
Therefore, if BTC dominance rises, altcoins are likely to gradually move sideways or show a downward trend.
On the other hand, if BTC dominance falls, it means that funds are being concentrated in altcoins, so altcoins are likely to gradually move sideways or show an upward trend.
In order for an altcoin bull market to begin, BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and remain there or show a downward trend.
In particular, if it rises above 62.47, altcoins are expected to show a huge decline.
In any case, USDT dominance must fall for the coin market to show an upward trend.
If USDT dominance rises and BTC dominance also rises, the coin market will show an overall downward trend.
The point to watch is whether USDT dominance can meet resistance near 4.31 and fall below 3.92.
If not, and it rises above 4.97, the coin market is likely to show a sharp decline.
This may lead to the start of a downward trend in the coin market.
If it meets resistance near 4.31 and falls, the final target point is expected to be around 2.84.
After that, it is expected that the coin market will enter a downward trend as USDT dominance shows a sharp rise.
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From a long-term perspective, the upward trend in the coin market is expected to continue until 2025, and the downward trend in the coin market is expected to begin in 2026.
Therefore, even if the coin market falls this time, I think it will show an upward trend that surpasses the current high.
Note
#BTCUSDT
When BTC shows a 3% fluctuation range, altcoins show a larger fluctuation range.
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At this time, what we should pay attention to is where the support and resistance are.
For example, if you look at the ENAUSDT.P chart, it shows a decline of about -14%, but it is located near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator.
In the end, you can see that it is currently moving sideways.
On the other hand, there are coins (tokens) that have fallen near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
The M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is important from a long-term perspective.
If it falls below the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart, there is a possibility that it will enter a long-term downtrend.
Therefore, if it is supported near the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart and rises, it is a time to buy from a long-term perspective.
If it falls below the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart this time and does not rise, it is recommended to wait until it rises above the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart.
If it rises below the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart and changes to a state where the M-Signal of the 1D chart > the M-Signal of the 1M chart, it is an aggressive buying period.
You can start buying in earnest when it is supported near the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart.
In this way, it is necessary to check the change in the trend of altcoins and have a corresponding response strategy.
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