I can have all my opinions about how this low can't be the HTF HL but who am I to say this? I should keep it in the back of my mind but I shouldn't let it hinder me from entering new trades/investments.
I spent too much time speculating on how I think it should look instead of just keeping it simple and just think about how it looks in the moment. It cost me missing the up-move from ~85k-100k.
I think of trading vs investing, LTF trades vs HTF trend while I should just scrap the HTF trend as this causes me to go on a speculation trip and I lose track of what's in front of me in the moment.
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What I think is in front of me right now:
Let's start with that MS is king. This up-move is caused by the fact that price got above the structure of 29 March-5 April, without any significant PA. It just got above it and stayed above it and pushed out above it.
That's enough evidence to me that I shouldn't necessarily wait for a big SFP, on the 15min TF or 1D. Or that I shouldn't wait for a big 15min engulfing candle. This is just proof as price has pushed all the way back to 100k.
Then,
The blue box was the resistance and the level below it (95k spike) was the main level. The top of this level was maximal resistance. Here I expected (=speculated) that price would be capped and go back to 74k. I expected price to close above the level but that the new structure formed around the level would provide a short (like a SFP and then a MSB).
But this didn't happen. Price pushed above the resistance. So that's how it now is: there's no resistance. Just like in april when price got above the 29 March-5 April structure with main level of structure being the high of 4 April.
And then to add: in current structure price has closed above the main level of that structure on the 1D: the high of 12 May. This is good.
Also: there's no 15min SFP at the current highs and the MSB failed (price pushed back up).
Also: there's a clean level for the long SFP: 12 May low.
Conclusion: if price breaks down from here without going back to these highs, price could be capped at the long SFP-level of 100k. And given the (I think) fact that there's no resistance and MS is king, this is the right level to enter the long in spot BTC.
So that's what I'm going to do. Might enter the trade too (perps) if price indeed SFP's this level.
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If price doesn't hold the 100k level, I don't think price can drop further than the 74k low so that's the potential downside (I don't sell spot if there's no short setup) I keep in mind.
I spent too much time speculating on how I think it should look instead of just keeping it simple and just think about how it looks in the moment. It cost me missing the up-move from ~85k-100k.
I think of trading vs investing, LTF trades vs HTF trend while I should just scrap the HTF trend as this causes me to go on a speculation trip and I lose track of what's in front of me in the moment.
-------------------------------
What I think is in front of me right now:
Let's start with that MS is king. This up-move is caused by the fact that price got above the structure of 29 March-5 April, without any significant PA. It just got above it and stayed above it and pushed out above it.
That's enough evidence to me that I shouldn't necessarily wait for a big SFP, on the 15min TF or 1D. Or that I shouldn't wait for a big 15min engulfing candle. This is just proof as price has pushed all the way back to 100k.
Then,
The blue box was the resistance and the level below it (95k spike) was the main level. The top of this level was maximal resistance. Here I expected (=speculated) that price would be capped and go back to 74k. I expected price to close above the level but that the new structure formed around the level would provide a short (like a SFP and then a MSB).
But this didn't happen. Price pushed above the resistance. So that's how it now is: there's no resistance. Just like in april when price got above the 29 March-5 April structure with main level of structure being the high of 4 April.
And then to add: in current structure price has closed above the main level of that structure on the 1D: the high of 12 May. This is good.
Also: there's no 15min SFP at the current highs and the MSB failed (price pushed back up).
Also: there's a clean level for the long SFP: 12 May low.
Conclusion: if price breaks down from here without going back to these highs, price could be capped at the long SFP-level of 100k. And given the (I think) fact that there's no resistance and MS is king, this is the right level to enter the long in spot BTC.
So that's what I'm going to do. Might enter the trade too (perps) if price indeed SFP's this level.
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If price doesn't hold the 100k level, I don't think price can drop further than the 74k low so that's the potential downside (I don't sell spot if there's no short setup) I keep in mind.
Note
Price made a new ATH but all PA looks normal to me, just consolidating upwards. Still have my limit orders set.Trade active
Not the best reaction to the level tbh. 1D candle close above would be welcome.Note
We got the 1D candle close above and price now also pushed above the whole structure which preceeded the downmove to my entry. I now think there's no more resistance to the ATH so this is looking really good.Besides spot I also entered a 1R long trade on spot entry level. Now that I think there isn't any resistance anymore I don't expect price to come back to my entry. This means that this entry (the lowest low around my entry to be exact) now becomes the new SL and I'll enter a new long with this SL (still keeping it 1R as a whole). Long entry will be highest high of 8 June (I think we will get it but not guaranteed).
Note
Actually, I just entered just now.I state there's no resistance, so this means I should be in the long setup. That's a thing I'm sure of. What I'm not sure of is that I get price to go back down to my entry or not. The difference between current price and entry limit order is not that big. Then I shouldn't risk missing my entry.
Whenever you get your 'green light' you should just enter the trade and not wait for some kind of pullback as the pullback is not guaranteed but your green light in your opinion do is guaranteed. it's a shame missing the trade because price just continues going up while you knew you should've been in the trade.
Note
Sold for little profit (100-104k). What a letdown.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.