BTCUSDT : a retracement would mean bullish EW count
Updated
Hi guys,
I think its time to start a new post about BTC TA.
New week, new data. While MACD 1D seems to form a bearish crossover and EW count & fibo seems to indicate that 9.8k was a 5th wave, it would mean for me that we are still in the bullish MACD 1D spectrum and this would lead to a bullish morphology on the macro chart like we see here. Working with fibonacci propotion on a bullish market is one of the first 1 rule of a good method that people should apply since the efficacity of it is higher than in a bearish market.
If you followed my last BTC posts, i was starting to see higher probabilities of a bullish run at 6.6k. Then we started applying the EW impulse wave method on the intermediary time frame chart with a target between 10.1k-10.4k. The things is, as you can see, i cvoluntarily putted the MA200 on my precedent post because the indicators are still good on our price range. The price stopped at 9.8k right on the MA200, as i dont refute maybe a last try of a minimal uptrend on the very short term, the probability that we engaged the retracement pattern grow higher and higher since the morphology of the waves are bearish :
1)
2)
That being said, when you working with EW & fibo and want to find reversal zone you need to look for a sharp retracement (fast and deep, not extended in time too much : ABC, sometimes ABCDE) finshing at fibo 0.618 (shorter time frame seems to have these propotion) or 0.328 (longer time frame tend to have this proportion) to find wave 1-2. As i may call for higher porbability for a retracement 7.8k, it would mean for me that we are at the start of a bigger bullish pattern.
Respecting this form and propotion (retracement at 7.8K, correlating with MA 300 and support trend) would mean for us that we can buy massively and enjoy a sustained bullish run after this reversal zone. Going for higher high would force me to re-work the probability and the scenario, but for now this one that i post seems to lead. I expect when we will sustain under 9.1k the retracement would move very fast toward the projected buy zone in virtually no time. On the other hand, higher highs would mean for me a bearish formation on the longer time frame, but again, if BTC dont follow this pathway i will update this post.
I think its time to start a new post about BTC TA.
New week, new data. While MACD 1D seems to form a bearish crossover and EW count & fibo seems to indicate that 9.8k was a 5th wave, it would mean for me that we are still in the bullish MACD 1D spectrum and this would lead to a bullish morphology on the macro chart like we see here. Working with fibonacci propotion on a bullish market is one of the first 1 rule of a good method that people should apply since the efficacity of it is higher than in a bearish market.
If you followed my last BTC posts, i was starting to see higher probabilities of a bullish run at 6.6k. Then we started applying the EW impulse wave method on the intermediary time frame chart with a target between 10.1k-10.4k. The things is, as you can see, i cvoluntarily putted the MA200 on my precedent post because the indicators are still good on our price range. The price stopped at 9.8k right on the MA200, as i dont refute maybe a last try of a minimal uptrend on the very short term, the probability that we engaged the retracement pattern grow higher and higher since the morphology of the waves are bearish :
1)
2)
That being said, when you working with EW & fibo and want to find reversal zone you need to look for a sharp retracement (fast and deep, not extended in time too much : ABC, sometimes ABCDE) finshing at fibo 0.618 (shorter time frame seems to have these propotion) or 0.328 (longer time frame tend to have this proportion) to find wave 1-2. As i may call for higher porbability for a retracement 7.8k, it would mean for me that we are at the start of a bigger bullish pattern.
Respecting this form and propotion (retracement at 7.8K, correlating with MA 300 and support trend) would mean for us that we can buy massively and enjoy a sustained bullish run after this reversal zone. Going for higher high would force me to re-work the probability and the scenario, but for now this one that i post seems to lead. I expect when we will sustain under 9.1k the retracement would move very fast toward the projected buy zone in virtually no time. On the other hand, higher highs would mean for me a bearish formation on the longer time frame, but again, if BTC dont follow this pathway i will update this post.
Note
testing the support for now. My guest is that if price sustain below 9.1k for a certain period of time we are going to meete 8k in virtually no time.Note
Note
support line broken. i think i can go to sleep without waking up to a surprise : Note
and here this is why i say 'under 9.1k we can go to 8k in virtually no time'. breaking the upper cloud make high probability to touch to the bottom of the cloud (you can see MA300 as target reference): Note
crossover of the macd 1d would mean at least -10% : watch the daily. cya later, going to school !
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the funny part. counting the wave : Note
New data, clearer wave count. im still bearish on this one. by looking at the 4h chart /MAcd and the morphology of the waves : Will be out of the town, celebrating my graduation of the first 5 years! not too stressed to not look at the chart honestly
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very simple 1-5 for major 1 then ABC retracement for wave 2.more details in this one :
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with new data im now that bearish. BTC bounced on the fibo 0.618 and consolidated there. low probability to break it.Subject to a new review work projection. Cya tomorrow
Note
*im now not that bearish* Cya tomorrow = will wait for more data
Trade closed manually
Trade closed: target reached
Reviewed target : 15k. I call bulish. Eill post my hidden work when i get back home.
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