📊 BTC/USDT – Cautiously Bullish with Breakout Potential
Binance Spot | 15-Minute Chart | 16 May 2025
🔎 Market Bias: Bullish
📈 Target Zone: $104,500–$105,000
🛡️ Key Risk: Failure to hold above $103,800 → potential drop to $103,200
🧩 Key Price Levels
Support Zones:
$103,800 – psychological + prior swing low
$103,200 – EMA-13 confluence
$102,900 – 15 May demand spike
Resistance Zones:
$104,300 – recent local high
$104,800 – 1.5x ATR extension
$105,000 – major liquidity pool
📐 Technical Setup
MACD: Bullish crossover confirmed (positive histogram)
RSI: 62.8 – neutral-bullish, no overbought yet
Price Structure: Breakout from descending wedge, forming higher highs/lows
ATR: 172.87 – elevated volatility, favors breakout setups
EMA-13 > EMA-26: Confirms short-term uptrend
🏦 Macro & Quant Notes
Institutional interest remains elevated (S. Korea pension fund)
On-chain data points to $105,000 as a short liquidation cluster
✅ Trade Plan
Entry: Long above $104,100 with volume confirmation
Stop-Loss: Tight below $103,750
Take-Profit:
First TP: $104,800
Full TP: $105,000
Optional: Exit if RSI >75
⚠️ Risk Advisory
Use max 5x leverage due to ATR volatility
Watch for MiCA headlines or Fed comments
Note:
Volume confirmation needed near $104,100
Watch RSI overbought >70 for exit near TP
Macro risk: MiCA / Fed near chart bottom
Binance Spot | 15-Minute Chart | 16 May 2025
🔎 Market Bias: Bullish
📈 Target Zone: $104,500–$105,000
🛡️ Key Risk: Failure to hold above $103,800 → potential drop to $103,200
🧩 Key Price Levels
Support Zones:
$103,800 – psychological + prior swing low
$103,200 – EMA-13 confluence
$102,900 – 15 May demand spike
Resistance Zones:
$104,300 – recent local high
$104,800 – 1.5x ATR extension
$105,000 – major liquidity pool
📐 Technical Setup
MACD: Bullish crossover confirmed (positive histogram)
RSI: 62.8 – neutral-bullish, no overbought yet
Price Structure: Breakout from descending wedge, forming higher highs/lows
ATR: 172.87 – elevated volatility, favors breakout setups
EMA-13 > EMA-26: Confirms short-term uptrend
🏦 Macro & Quant Notes
Institutional interest remains elevated (S. Korea pension fund)
On-chain data points to $105,000 as a short liquidation cluster
✅ Trade Plan
Entry: Long above $104,100 with volume confirmation
Stop-Loss: Tight below $103,750
Take-Profit:
First TP: $104,800
Full TP: $105,000
Optional: Exit if RSI >75
⚠️ Risk Advisory
Use max 5x leverage due to ATR volatility
Watch for MiCA headlines or Fed comments
Note:
Volume confirmation needed near $104,100
Watch RSI overbought >70 for exit near TP
Macro risk: MiCA / Fed near chart bottom
Trade active
✅ Price hasn't broken the invalidation level , support zone.✅ The bias (bullish) and structure (higher lows, breakout potential) remain intact.
Trade closed: target reached
📍 Update – Trade Outcome✅ Price reached First Take-Profit target at $104,800
🎯 Strategy played out as expected with bullish continuation after support at $103,800 held.
🟢 MACD remains bullish, RSI near 70 — trend still active for those targeting $105,000 (TP2).
📊 Volume increased moderately, supporting the breakout move.
I have closed my position at TP1 ($104,800) to secure profits.
Other traders can choose to hold for TP2 ($105,000) if comfortable with current risk.
🛑 No invalidation triggered.
📈 Setup remains active for those still in the trade.
Note
📍 Final Update – Trade Closed (TP2 Reached)📈 BTC/USDT hit $105,200 — 🎯 Second Take-Profit (TP2: $105,000) successfully reached.
✅ Full trade plan executed:
Entry: Above $104,100
TP1: $104,800 (partial close)
TP2: $105,000 (final target hit)
📊 MACD remains bullish, RSI >75 — indicating potential exhaustion; ideal zone to secure profits.
🔒 Position fully closed — Textbook trend continuation after support at $103,800 held.
📌 For new setups, consider waiting for consolidation or a fresh breakout signal.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.