Entering the sphere of influence of BTC halving
Updated
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(USDT chart)
(USDC chart)
The stablecoin that has a great influence on the coin market is USDT.
USDC is believed to have a short-term impact on the coin market.
Currently, as funds begin to flow into USDC, BTC is moving to renew its all-time high (ATH).
Therefore, we need to create a trading strategy based on the belief that the coin market will continue its upward trend until USDT or USDC continues to show a decrease in the gap and shows an outflow of funds.
(USDT.D chart)
As USDT dominance falls below 4.97, the coin market is expected to enter a bull market.
However, we will have to look at the movement of BTC dominance to determine what kind of bull market this will be.
(BTC.D chart)
For a major bull market to begin, it is likely to begin with a rise in the 55.01-62.47 range or higher and then a decline below 50.
A major bull market refers to a bull market in which most coins (tokens) renew their new highs (ATH).
Accordingly, there is a possibility that altcoins will rise significantly from the time they begin to decline around 55.01-62.47.
If that happens, BTC's movement will slow down and naturally move sideways.
-------------------------------------------------- -
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
BTC is located near Fibonacci 1 (61338.93).
If it does not fall below 59053.55, I think there is a good chance that the upward trend will continue.
However, since the StochRSI indicator is located at the highest point of the overbought range, its rise may be limited.
(BTCUSD 1M chart)
Accordingly, looking at the BTCUSD INDEX chart provided by TradingView, it is expected that there will be difficulty breaking through the range between the left Fibonacci ratio 1 (61383.23) and the right Fibonacci ratio 3.618 (65056.39).
Similar to the BTCUSDT chart, a drop below 59103.77 is likely to lead to further declines.
1st: Left Fibonacci Ratio 3 (54512.93)
2nd: Right Fibonacci ratio 0.618 (44234.54) ~ Left Fibonacci ratio 2.618 (47995.77)
You need to check if you receive support near the 1st and 2nd levels above.
Judging from previous movements, the longest time the StochRSI indicator has stayed at the peak of the overbought zone is about 2 months, so it is possible that the StochRSI indicator will remain at the peak of the overbought zone until up to March.
If not, and the StochRSI indicator shows a downward turn, you should look for ways to counter the decline.
(1W chart)
I believe that the 59053.55 point, which is the point explained in the 1M chart, corresponds to psychological support and resistance points.
Therefore, if resistance is seen at the 59053.55 point, there is a high possibility that selling pressure will increase and lead to a further decline.
However, the area where the current upward trend is broken is 0.786 (51743.19) ~ 53256.64.
If it falls below this range and enters the rising channel, it is expected to eventually touch around 44200-47600, near the bottom of the rising channel.
At this time, if it is supported and rises around 44200-47600, a rally toward around 1.618 (89050.0) is expected to begin.
If the StochRSI indicator touches the highest point of the overbought range, there is a possibility that the indicator will show a large decline even with a small decline.
Therefore, when the StochRSI indicator shows such a decline, it is important to know where support or resistance is found.
(1D chart)
This period of volatility runs until March 2nd.
However, since the next volatility period is around March 10th, this volatility period may be extended until March 11th, so we need to set support and resistance points in the big picture and respond accordingly.
Have a good time.
thank you
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- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting area, you should check the movement when this area is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-----------------
If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click “Boost”.
Have a good day.
-------------------------------------
(USDT chart)
(USDC chart)
The stablecoin that has a great influence on the coin market is USDT.
USDC is believed to have a short-term impact on the coin market.
Currently, as funds begin to flow into USDC, BTC is moving to renew its all-time high (ATH).
Therefore, we need to create a trading strategy based on the belief that the coin market will continue its upward trend until USDT or USDC continues to show a decrease in the gap and shows an outflow of funds.
(USDT.D chart)
As USDT dominance falls below 4.97, the coin market is expected to enter a bull market.
However, we will have to look at the movement of BTC dominance to determine what kind of bull market this will be.
(BTC.D chart)
For a major bull market to begin, it is likely to begin with a rise in the 55.01-62.47 range or higher and then a decline below 50.
A major bull market refers to a bull market in which most coins (tokens) renew their new highs (ATH).
Accordingly, there is a possibility that altcoins will rise significantly from the time they begin to decline around 55.01-62.47.
If that happens, BTC's movement will slow down and naturally move sideways.
-------------------------------------------------- -
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
BTC is located near Fibonacci 1 (61338.93).
If it does not fall below 59053.55, I think there is a good chance that the upward trend will continue.
However, since the StochRSI indicator is located at the highest point of the overbought range, its rise may be limited.
(BTCUSD 1M chart)
Accordingly, looking at the BTCUSD INDEX chart provided by TradingView, it is expected that there will be difficulty breaking through the range between the left Fibonacci ratio 1 (61383.23) and the right Fibonacci ratio 3.618 (65056.39).
Similar to the BTCUSDT chart, a drop below 59103.77 is likely to lead to further declines.
1st: Left Fibonacci Ratio 3 (54512.93)
2nd: Right Fibonacci ratio 0.618 (44234.54) ~ Left Fibonacci ratio 2.618 (47995.77)
You need to check if you receive support near the 1st and 2nd levels above.
Judging from previous movements, the longest time the StochRSI indicator has stayed at the peak of the overbought zone is about 2 months, so it is possible that the StochRSI indicator will remain at the peak of the overbought zone until up to March.
If not, and the StochRSI indicator shows a downward turn, you should look for ways to counter the decline.
(1W chart)
I believe that the 59053.55 point, which is the point explained in the 1M chart, corresponds to psychological support and resistance points.
Therefore, if resistance is seen at the 59053.55 point, there is a high possibility that selling pressure will increase and lead to a further decline.
However, the area where the current upward trend is broken is 0.786 (51743.19) ~ 53256.64.
If it falls below this range and enters the rising channel, it is expected to eventually touch around 44200-47600, near the bottom of the rising channel.
At this time, if it is supported and rises around 44200-47600, a rally toward around 1.618 (89050.0) is expected to begin.
If the StochRSI indicator touches the highest point of the overbought range, there is a possibility that the indicator will show a large decline even with a small decline.
Therefore, when the StochRSI indicator shows such a decline, it is important to know where support or resistance is found.
(1D chart)
This period of volatility runs until March 2nd.
However, since the next volatility period is around March 10th, this volatility period may be extended until March 11th, so we need to set support and resistance points in the big picture and respond accordingly.
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting area, you should check the movement when this area is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-----------------
Note
(summary)Resistance: 63660.11-66401.82
Support: 59053.55-61338.93
The key is which direction you deviate from among the above sections.
Note
(1M charts)The StochRSI indicator appears to have maintained the highest point in the overbought range.
(1D chart)
The StochRSI indicator shows a downward trend.
Accordingly, failure to renew the previous high is likely to lead to a further decline.
However, if the price remains near the Fibonacci ratio 1 (61338.93) until the StochRSI indicator turns upward, there is a possibility that it will lead to a larger rise.
Therefore, for now, we need to check for support around the Fibonacci ratio 1 (61338.93).
Since the transition between StochRSI < StochRSI EMA is likely to lead to a decline, volatility is expected to occur as StochRSI and StochRSI EMA meet within a few days.
Note
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)This is the last day of this period of volatility.
If it fails to rise above 63660.11, it is likely to lead to a further decline.
At this time,
1st: Fibonacci ratio 1 (61338.93)
2nd: 59053.55-59370.07
You need to check if you receive support near the 1st and 2nd levels above.
If the price rises above 63660.11 and maintains, it is expected to lead to an upward movement to around 66401.82.
The next period of volatility will be around March 10 (March 9-11).
(BTC.D 1M chart)
If BTC dominance does not fall below 50, altcoins may fall significantly even with a small drop in BTC, so caution is required.
Note
Coins (tokens) may rise a lot, so you may be tempted to buy more.
If you have a buying standard that fits your trading strategy, you can buy according to that standard.
If there is no purchase standard, please check whether you can purchase the standard using the method below.
(based on spot transaction)
1. When touching near 5EMA > HA 5EMA or HA 5EMA and rising
2. When showing support near M-Signal > S-Signal
3. When the HA-High, HA-Low indicator or the box section of the HA-High, HA-Low indicator breaks upward.
4. When it breaks the upper line of the Price Channel indicator and shows support.
5. When there is an upward trend, when the candle on the 1D chart is a downward candle.
The stop loss point selection based on the above criteria can be determined as follows.
If you purchased based on number 1,
This is when the price falls below 5EMA < HA 5EMA or HA 5EMA and shows resistance.
However, since the original principle is to buy when it breaks above 5EMA or HA 5EMA, it can actually be used for short-term trading (day trading).
If you purchased based on number 2,
This is when M-Signal < S-Signal and resistance appears below the M-Signal indicator.
If you purchased based on number 3,
If you fail to break above the upper point of the box of the HA-High indicator or HA-Low indicator,
1st: Split sale when the drop falls below the HA-High or HA-Low indicator
Secondary: Stop loss when the price falls below the bottom point of the box of the HA-High or HA-Low indicator and shows resistance.
If you buy near the HA-High indicator or HA-Low indicator, you take a stop loss when the price falls below the bottom point of the box of the HA-High indicator or HA-Low indicator and shows resistance.
If you purchased based on number 4,
This is when the price falls below the upper line of the Price Channel indicator and shows resistance.
If you purchased based on number 5,
This is when the price falls below the previous low.
Please use the above criteria as a reference to create a purchasing standard that suits you.
Note
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)As StochRSI < StochRSI EMA is converted, the possibility of continuing the downtrend is increasing.
Accordingly,
1st: Fibonacci ratio 1 (61338.93)
2nd: 59053.55-59370.07
You need to check if you receive support near the first and second levels above.
(BTCKRW 1D chart)
For the first time on the BTC chart, the upper line of the Price Channel indicator was created on the current candle.
Accordingly, when a candle is created tomorrow, if the upper line of the Price Channel indicator creates a horizontal line, the key is whether it can rise above that horizontal line.
If not, and it shows resistance, it is expected to fall to around the Fibonacci ratio of 1.13 (82666000).
If it leads to a decline like this, it may touch the HA 5EMA or MS-Signal indicators and rise, so you need to think about a response plan.
Additionally, if the decline continues and a new HA-High indicator appears to be created, whether or not there is support near the HA-High indicator becomes an important issue.
Note
The upper line of the Price Channel indicator is currently forming on a candle, showing a downward trend.
Accordingly, it appears that a new HA-High indicator is being created.
If the HA-HIgh indicator is created at the 83000000 point, the key is whether it can be supported around this point.
In order for an upward trend to begin, the price must eventually rise above the rising line of the Price Channel indicator.
There is no sign of a new HA-High indicator being created on the BTCUSDT chart yet.
However, if it falls below the Fibonacci ratio 1 (61338.93), it may appear that the HA-High indicator is about to be created, so we need to watch the trend carefully.
Note
(question)You said that the uptrend will end when it falls below 59k, but I would like to know if the uptrend here refers to the alt circulation pumping until yesterday, or the overall alt rise or the general rise.
(answer)
If it falls below 59K, there is a possibility of a short-term downtrend.
However, looking at the big picture, the starting point for the decline is 53256.64.
For this decline to become a real decline, it must fall below 44200-47600.
Otherwise, there is a high possibility that a depression will occur and a major bull market will begin.
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