Bitcoin / TetherUSShort
The two most likely short/mid-term bearish scenarios
Zoom out.
As long as we close the yearly green (29k) this will set us up for bullish continuation in 2022.
There are so many reasons to be bullish, the largest of which is an upgrade to the bitcoin blockchain called Taproot which is due out in November. After the last major btc upgrade (Segwit) the price sailed upward several times its value in a matter of months.
In the meantime, odds are that we will probably have some sort of final major shakeout, similar to what happened shortly after the release of Segwit (and right before the parabolic rise of bitcoin).
The alt market continues to be overheated due to a loading phase in which retail has been granted unprecedented access to crypto. To me this is bearish; although the loading phase is indicative of a developing market, many coins are still several hundred of times their value from back in March 2020; it seems that a macro low swing point may have to be carved out in order to reset the market for the next great run.
We also have a possibility of 200k bitcoin flooding the market soon, if and when the almost decade-long court battle with Mt. Gox finally gets resolved.
finance.yahoo.com/news/britcoin-millionaires-mt-gox-case-japan-153624083-230116218.html
The counterpoint to the bearish view would be that the market is maturing so there is less chance of a pump-and-dump occurring on bitcoin, incredibly bullish things are regularly happening and if you don't invest now you will miss out.
Well, that may be the case, but we are trading in an entirely new, much higher range and on less volume. Ultimately I want to buy on a super high volume bottom, not a low volume institutional one that is supposed to hold because they tell you so (like the 6k 'iron wall' of 2018). I lose nothing but a potential opportunity by waiting this out - and possibly gain a much greater opportunity in the process.
Finally, the world's markets are in a tenuous position; nothing will escape the shockwaves that occur once the avalanche begins. No matter which way we push in the short-term, I remain relatively positive that we are going to see a sub-30k bitcoin before we ever see a 65k+ bitcoin.
So, for these reasons I am currently playing this like a triangle which breaks down before exploding higher early next year. If the triangle gets broken to the upside and my stop loss gets hit however, I may flip bullish until we touch the top trendline above 60k, which would happen in a month to month-in-a-half.
Or I may just wait out the market until the top target is reached and short again at the top.
Either way, that triple bottom at 30k is made to be broken.
TLDR: Play the macro, the future is bright but the dump will happen first, be patient.
Outsmarting the market usually involves doing the opposite of the majority.
As long as we close the yearly green (29k) this will set us up for bullish continuation in 2022.
There are so many reasons to be bullish, the largest of which is an upgrade to the bitcoin blockchain called Taproot which is due out in November. After the last major btc upgrade (Segwit) the price sailed upward several times its value in a matter of months.
In the meantime, odds are that we will probably have some sort of final major shakeout, similar to what happened shortly after the release of Segwit (and right before the parabolic rise of bitcoin).
The alt market continues to be overheated due to a loading phase in which retail has been granted unprecedented access to crypto. To me this is bearish; although the loading phase is indicative of a developing market, many coins are still several hundred of times their value from back in March 2020; it seems that a macro low swing point may have to be carved out in order to reset the market for the next great run.
We also have a possibility of 200k bitcoin flooding the market soon, if and when the almost decade-long court battle with Mt. Gox finally gets resolved.
finance.yahoo.com/news/britcoin-millionaires-mt-gox-case-japan-153624083-230116218.html
The counterpoint to the bearish view would be that the market is maturing so there is less chance of a pump-and-dump occurring on bitcoin, incredibly bullish things are regularly happening and if you don't invest now you will miss out.
Well, that may be the case, but we are trading in an entirely new, much higher range and on less volume. Ultimately I want to buy on a super high volume bottom, not a low volume institutional one that is supposed to hold because they tell you so (like the 6k 'iron wall' of 2018). I lose nothing but a potential opportunity by waiting this out - and possibly gain a much greater opportunity in the process.
Finally, the world's markets are in a tenuous position; nothing will escape the shockwaves that occur once the avalanche begins. No matter which way we push in the short-term, I remain relatively positive that we are going to see a sub-30k bitcoin before we ever see a 65k+ bitcoin.
So, for these reasons I am currently playing this like a triangle which breaks down before exploding higher early next year. If the triangle gets broken to the upside and my stop loss gets hit however, I may flip bullish until we touch the top trendline above 60k, which would happen in a month to month-in-a-half.
Or I may just wait out the market until the top target is reached and short again at the top.
Either way, that triple bottom at 30k is made to be broken.
TLDR: Play the macro, the future is bright but the dump will happen first, be patient.
Outsmarting the market usually involves doing the opposite of the majority.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.