Since the actual Core CPI will be released in two hours, we can estimate its potential outcome based on recent trends, market expectations, and economic conditions.
Estimate for Core CPI (January 2025):
Previous Core CPI: 0.2%
Forecasted Core CPI: 0.3%
Recent CPI Trend: Headline CPI has been rising, with shelter and energy prices showing continued upward momentum.
Market Sentiment: Treasury yields are consolidating above 4.5%, indicating expectations of persistent inflation pressures.
Given the rising shelter costs and strong labor market conditions, the actual Core CPI may come in at 0.3% or slightly higher (0.3%-0.4%). If it exceeds 0.3%, it could be bullish for the USD, as it would suggest stickier inflation and reduce expectations for early Fed rate cuts.