Redistribution The Evil Twin
Updated
Hi all,
I've added 2 redistribution scenarios to my analysis. As you can see accumulation and redistribution structures on Phase B are almost identical. The only change here is the labelings and exit of the trading ranges.
Here are the facts that support redistribution
1- Volume decreases on rallies and increases on reactions!!! It should have been the exact oppsite if we were in accumulation.
2- As a rule of thumb continuation is more likely than reversal, so after distribution, redistribution is more likely than accumulation.
3- Bitcoin is weaker than the market. Right now everything is green except Bitcoin.
Validation, Validation, Validation:
The red circles are my validation points:
1- Break below monthly support at 29641.48 = redistribution
- Else, accumulation continues
2- Break above trend line (a series of lower highs) and accumulation is validated.
- Else, go to 1 :)
If you followed my earlier posts, you know i've exited at 40k and i'm in a nice 20% profit in terms of purchasing power. I was thinking of entering a new long position at $29.650, however i'll pass because i know redistribution is sudden and comes as a surprise with a quick action. I'm not risking it.
So, i'm looking for confirmations. Right now the only thing that doesn't confirm redistribution is the amount of fuel in the tank, meaning the horizontal counts on the p&f charts. It's still 13 columns, translating to
39K potential. Given the price is at 32k, it can't go below zero :)))
However, this doesn't mean it won't go below 29k. $19.695 and $13.888 are the two destinations of previous ATH's.
But, there's one more destination: 26k
This is based on the initial distribution count on Bruce Frasers May 14 analysis. You know there's huge fuel in the tank and i find this option the most likable :)
My ideal scenario would be a spring down to 26k and then to 100k
Can help but think bullish.
I would like to remind you that bear traps are common at the bottom of the trading range, just like bull traps at the top.
Trade safe!
I've added 2 redistribution scenarios to my analysis. As you can see accumulation and redistribution structures on Phase B are almost identical. The only change here is the labelings and exit of the trading ranges.
Here are the facts that support redistribution
1- Volume decreases on rallies and increases on reactions!!! It should have been the exact oppsite if we were in accumulation.
2- As a rule of thumb continuation is more likely than reversal, so after distribution, redistribution is more likely than accumulation.
3- Bitcoin is weaker than the market. Right now everything is green except Bitcoin.
Validation, Validation, Validation:
The red circles are my validation points:
1- Break below monthly support at 29641.48 = redistribution
- Else, accumulation continues
2- Break above trend line (a series of lower highs) and accumulation is validated.
- Else, go to 1 :)
If you followed my earlier posts, you know i've exited at 40k and i'm in a nice 20% profit in terms of purchasing power. I was thinking of entering a new long position at $29.650, however i'll pass because i know redistribution is sudden and comes as a surprise with a quick action. I'm not risking it.
So, i'm looking for confirmations. Right now the only thing that doesn't confirm redistribution is the amount of fuel in the tank, meaning the horizontal counts on the p&f charts. It's still 13 columns, translating to
39K potential. Given the price is at 32k, it can't go below zero :)))However, this doesn't mean it won't go below 29k. $19.695 and $13.888 are the two destinations of previous ATH's.
But, there's one more destination: 26k
This is based on the initial distribution count on Bruce Frasers May 14 analysis. You know there's huge fuel in the tank and i find this option the most likable :)
My ideal scenario would be a spring down to 26k and then to 100k
Can help but think bullish.
I would like to remind you that bear traps are common at the bottom of the trading range, just like bull traps at the top.
Trade safe!
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