(Weekly expected flow) Volatility period: Around April 22
Updated
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It appears that the fund flow in the coin market is maintaining an upward trend.
However, BTC dominance and USDT dominance are showing an increase.
The key question is whether BTC dominance can be resisted and decline in the 55.01-62.47 range and whether USDT dominance can be maintained below 4.95 or maintain a downward trend.
If that happens, the coin market is expected to see a major uptrend.
A major bull market refers to a bull market in which most coins (tokens) renew their new highs (ATH).
---------------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
If it closes near the second section, it appears that a new HA-High indicator will be created.
If that happens, the key is whether there will be support near the newly created HA-High indicator.
(1W chart)
This drop shows that a new HA-High indicator is about to be created.
Accordingly, if a new HA-High indicator is created, the key is whether it can be supported and rise around it.
59053.55, the 64K point is the box-top point of the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, if possible, it is important to be able to support and rise around 59053.55-64K.
If this is not the case and it falls below 56K, the selling force is expected to intensify.
I think the reason the current fluctuation range is greater than the section your finger is pointing at is because it is located in the section where the new high (ATH) was updated.
Therefore, if these sideways continue, it will eventually touch an important upward channel.
At this time, it seems likely that this year's trend will be determined by whether or not it can rise along an important upward channel.
Therefore, the movement starting from the week of April 29th through the week of July 29th is expected to be very significant.
In terms of the overall flow, the 42K-43K section is an important section.
However, if it falls below 53256.64, there is a high possibility that it will turn into a downward trend, so you need to think about a response plan.
(1D chart)
The key is whether it can receive support above the newly formed downward trend line and above 64K and rise above 70231.38.
However, if it falls along the newly created downward trend line, a new HA-Low indicator is expected to be created in the near future.
If a new HA-Low indicator is created, an important factor is whether it receives support around it.
The time to buy is when the BW indicator levels out and then rises, and when the StochRSI indicator rises from the oversold range and forms StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
thus,
1. When the BW indicator is level and moves sideways,
2. When the StochRSI indicator rises from the oversold range and shows StochRSI > StochRSI EMA,
Buying when only one of the conditions 1 and 2 above are satisfied is an aggressive purchase and requires a quick response, so caution is required when trading.
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(BTCUSDT.P 1D chart)
I think it showed more fluctuations than the movement on the BTCUSDT chart.
As such, it is believed that the current market leadership is achieved through futures trading.
Therefore, you need a trading strategy to maintain the number of coins (tokens) you own.
Since the rebound is more than 8%, it is likely that forced liquidation will occur in both directions, so it is considered an awkward position to start trading.
Therefore, as mentioned earlier on the BTCUSDT 1D chart, I think it is necessary to check the movement of the BW indicator and StochRSI indicator and the movement at the support and resistance points drawn on the chart.
Have a good time.
thank you
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- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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-------------------------------------
It appears that the fund flow in the coin market is maintaining an upward trend.
However, BTC dominance and USDT dominance are showing an increase.
The key question is whether BTC dominance can be resisted and decline in the 55.01-62.47 range and whether USDT dominance can be maintained below 4.95 or maintain a downward trend.
If that happens, the coin market is expected to see a major uptrend.
A major bull market refers to a bull market in which most coins (tokens) renew their new highs (ATH).
---------------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
If it closes near the second section, it appears that a new HA-High indicator will be created.
If that happens, the key is whether there will be support near the newly created HA-High indicator.
(1W chart)
This drop shows that a new HA-High indicator is about to be created.
Accordingly, if a new HA-High indicator is created, the key is whether it can be supported and rise around it.
59053.55, the 64K point is the box-top point of the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, if possible, it is important to be able to support and rise around 59053.55-64K.
If this is not the case and it falls below 56K, the selling force is expected to intensify.
I think the reason the current fluctuation range is greater than the section your finger is pointing at is because it is located in the section where the new high (ATH) was updated.
Therefore, if these sideways continue, it will eventually touch an important upward channel.
At this time, it seems likely that this year's trend will be determined by whether or not it can rise along an important upward channel.
Therefore, the movement starting from the week of April 29th through the week of July 29th is expected to be very significant.
In terms of the overall flow, the 42K-43K section is an important section.
However, if it falls below 53256.64, there is a high possibility that it will turn into a downward trend, so you need to think about a response plan.
(1D chart)
The key is whether it can receive support above the newly formed downward trend line and above 64K and rise above 70231.38.
However, if it falls along the newly created downward trend line, a new HA-Low indicator is expected to be created in the near future.
If a new HA-Low indicator is created, an important factor is whether it receives support around it.
The time to buy is when the BW indicator levels out and then rises, and when the StochRSI indicator rises from the oversold range and forms StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
thus,
1. When the BW indicator is level and moves sideways,
2. When the StochRSI indicator rises from the oversold range and shows StochRSI > StochRSI EMA,
Buying when only one of the conditions 1 and 2 above are satisfied is an aggressive purchase and requires a quick response, so caution is required when trading.
-------------------------------------------------- ----
(BTCUSDT.P 1D chart)
I think it showed more fluctuations than the movement on the BTCUSDT chart.
As such, it is believed that the current market leadership is achieved through futures trading.
Therefore, you need a trading strategy to maintain the number of coins (tokens) you own.
Since the rebound is more than 8%, it is likely that forced liquidation will occur in both directions, so it is considered an awkward position to start trading.
Therefore, as mentioned earlier on the BTCUSDT 1D chart, I think it is necessary to check the movement of the BW indicator and StochRSI indicator and the movement at the support and resistance points drawn on the chart.
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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Note
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)The BW indicator is not leveling off and is showing a downward trend.
(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
The BW indicator has leveled off.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can receive support and rise around 3025.27.
Note
(BTCUSDT.P 1D chart)It has fallen like this, but you are not trying to enter a new market with a SHORT position, are you?
(1h chart)
If you look at the low time frame chart, you may accumulate SHORT positions whenever the price rises because it is thought that you can enter into SHORT positions when the price rebounds.
However, it is currently located near an important point (69K), so it is important to check whether it is supported at this point.
While checking for support, if the MS-Signal indicator falls and touches it, if it fails to rise above the MS-Signal indicator, you can enter into a SHORT position.
The next important point is around 59K, forming a support zone spanning 56K-61K.
Therefore, rather than trying to enter a SHORT position, it is important to check whether the conditions for entering a LONG position are met.
Note
Despite the decline in the coin market, funds are showing an inflow.
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The key is whether the BW indicator becomes horizontal around 64K and can be supported and rise near that horizontal point.
Additionally, you should check whether a new HA-Low indicator is created.
Important support and resistance points are
1. 59K (56K-61K)
2. 65233.64 (the point where the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is newly created)
3. 69K-70231.38
You need to check whether you can receive support and rise from the three points or sections above.
In the end, the last time to buy is when the StochRSI indicator rises from the oversold range and StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, and the upward trend is likely to begin when it rises above the MS-Signal indicator.
Therefore, until then, you can respond quickly by increasing the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profits or lowering the investment proportion and slowly start purchasing in installments.
In any case, the first task is whether the BW indicator is level.
(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
The BW indicator was created around 3025.27.
Therefore, the key is whether it receives support and rises around 3025.27.
The 3025.27-3321.30 area corresponds to an important support and resistance area.
Accordingly, there is a high possibility that an upward trend will begin when the price rises above 3321.30 and is maintained.
The time to buy is when the StochRSI indicator rises from the oversold range and StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
However, since the BW indicator forms a horizontal line, it is important to check whether there is support based on the horizontal point.
If not, you need to be careful when trading because there is a high possibility that it will pretend to rise and then fall again.
Note
The criteria for creating a trading strategy should be those that suit each individual.And, you should try to trade according to those standards as much as possible.
It cannot be said that the standard for starting a transaction is right or wrong, and it is important to start trading in accordance with the standard as much as possible.
There is no need to worry about what various communities say is right or wrong.
Even if my trading strategy goes in the opposite direction, if I have created a trading strategy in advance and proceeded with the transaction accordingly, it will be a satisfactory transaction.
If you get used to this response, you will eventually be able to earn steady profits.
If you suffer a loss by trading based on someone else's opinion, it is because the party who made the transaction reacted incorrectly.
Therefore, even if you trade with reference to other people's opinions, you must have a response strategy that suits your investment style.
If you do not have standards for a response strategy that suits you, you should not proceed with the transaction itself.
This is because passing responsibility for a failed transaction to someone else will not help you improve your trading skills.
Rather, you must be careful because you are likely to suffer continuous losses by not being able to properly understand your psychological state.
Note
(BTCUSDT 1W chart)A new box section for the HA-High indicator has been created.
The key is whether it can receive support and rise near the newly created HA-High indicator point of 65233.64.
However, since the box section has just been created, you need to check whether it deviates from the previous box section.
Looking at the 'BW-' indicators that make up the BW indicator, only the BW-StochRSI indicator appears to have fallen below 50.
Therefore, if the price remains above the MS-High indicator, it is expected to continue its upward trend.
Therefore, if it falls, you need to check if it can rise with support around 59370.07.
If it falls below 53256.64, there is a possibility that it will fall to around 42K.
However, it is necessary to check whether the HA-Low indicator is generated.
(1D chart)
So, you can see that currently is not the time to trade.
To start trading
- Support is confirmed around 65233.64-66401.82.
- This is when support is confirmed around 59370.07-60660.57.
However, since the horizontal point of the BW indicator is formed in the 65233.64-66401.82 range, trading is currently possible when it rises to 65233.64-66401.82.
Therefore, aggressive buying is possible when it is supported and rises around 59370.07-60660.57.
Aggressive buying means buying from a short-term trading (day trading) perspective, where you have to make a profit by selling when the price appears to be falling if you make a profit after buying.
If you make an aggressive purchase, you must remember to sell while the price is rising.
How to realize profit
- Selling 100% for cash profit and
- A method of selling the amount equal to the purchase principal to increase the number of coins corresponding to profit.
You can sell by choosing one of the two methods above.
I think that increasing the number of coins corresponding to profit means increasing the number of coins with an average purchase price of 0, which is an appropriate method for mid- to long-term investment.
As the number of coins with an average purchase price of 0 increases, the average purchase price at the start of a transaction is lowered, which lowers the psychological burden of the transaction, thereby increasing the likelihood of successful trading.
Note
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)We have updated it earlier for your understanding of the current trend.
The 64K point is the upper point of the box of the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart, so if the price holds above this point, it is expected to eventually show an upward trend.
The upper section of the box of the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is the 59053.55-64K section, so I think there is a high possibility that a strong buying trend will occur as trading volume increases as it approaches the 59053.55 point.
Since the bottom line of the Price Channel indicator appears to have been created around 64K, the key is whether it can be supported and rise around 64K until around April 22nd, the next volatility period.
When the Price Channel indicator reaches a level, you need to check whether the price is maintained above that level.
Even if it receives support and rises around 64K, the upward trend will begin only when it rises above the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart.
Therefore, we need to step by step check whether the price is maintained by rising above the HA-High indicator and MS-Signal indicator of the 1W chart and come up with a response plan.
As an individual investor, it is not easy to know the fund flow in the coin market.
However, I think that you can briefly understand the flow of funds by checking the movements of representative stable coins such as USDT and USDC.
I believe that the rise in the gap between USDT and USDC is a sign of new funds flowing into the coin market.
I believe that the movements of USDT and USDC candles are traces of funds generated through transactions.
Therefore, if the gap between USDT and USDC continues to rise, I think it is highly likely that the coin market will continue its upward trend.
Even if the flow of funds is good, there is a possibility that the funds flowing into the actual coin market may not immediately lead to an upward trend.
I think it is time to buy when funds have been injected like this but the coin market is not showing an upward trend.
However, as individual investors have limited funds, it is difficult to purchase whenever the price falls, so individual investors have no choice but to purchase when the price shows an upward movement.
Therefore, when the price is below the MS-Signal indicator and the MS-Signal indicator shows a downward sign, it is recommended to split the purchase when it breaks upward through important support and resistance points.
In other words, it is recommended to buy when the candle on the 1D chart is a rising candle.
It is recommended to buy when the price is above the MS-Signal indicator and the MS-Signal indicator shows signs of upward movement, and when it shows support at important support and resistance points.
In other words, it is recommended to buy when the candle on the 1D chart is a downward candle.
What I mentioned above is one of the buying methods, so you need to judge and respond according to the situation.
Note
(USDT.D 1M chart)If USDT dominance rises above 4.97, the coin market is likely to plummet, so you need to keep a close eye on it.
If it rises above 4.97, there is a possibility that it will rise to around 0.618, which is the Fibonacci ratio point.
And, it is expected to determine direction again around 0.618.
(BTC.D 1M chart)
In order for the coin market to face a major uptrend,
- USDT and USDC must show an upward trend in the gap.
- BTC dominance must meet resistance in the 55.01-62.47 range and show a downward trend.
- USDT dominance must remain below 4.97 or show a downward trend.
If BTC dominance rises above 62.47, it is expected that there will be so much fear that there will be talk that the coin market is ruined(?).
If this happens, most altcoins are expected to fall near or below their listing prices, so caution is required when trading.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
The coin market is expected to continue its upward trend until 2025.
However, in order for a bull market to begin along with altcoins, BTC dominance must fall below 50.
If not, there is a possibility that a bull market will continue with only BTC and ETH rising.
BTC is expected to rise by over 100K by 2025.
Note
(USDT.D 1M chart)The key is whether USDT dominance can meet resistance around 4.97 and decline.
If this fails and it rises, the coin market is expected to see a significant decline.
At this time, we need to check if USDT dominance can be resisted around 0.618.
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
If you look at the StochRSI indicator of the TS - BW secondary indicator near where the finger is pointing, you can see that it has fallen significantly as StochRSI < StochRSI EMA.
It is also necessary to check whether the current movement will show the same movement as the previous movement.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can receive support and rise in the second section, 59K (56K-61K).
If not, there is a possibility that it will fall to around 42283.58, where the volume profile section is formed.
Therefore, it can be seen that a strong support zone has been formed around the third section.
Because it is a 1M chart, you cannot check the movement of the StochRSI indicator.
Therefore, a response strategy must be created depending on whether there is support in the second section.
(1W chart)
On the 1W chart, the important period is from the week before and after April 29th to the week before and after July 29th.
At this time, the key is whether it can rise along the important upward channel.
If it falls below the important rising channel, it may fall into the third section as explained in the 1M chart.
(1D chart)
As I mentioned in today's explanation of the OPUSDT chart, there is a big difference whether the HA-Low indicator is generated or not when there is a downtrend.
The creation of the HA-Low indicator means that a low point has begun to form, so there is a high possibility of forming a bottom.
Therefore, if a new HA-Low indicator is created around 59K (56K-61K), it will form a bottom section even if it shows a downward trend.
Therefore, if it shows support when the HA-Low indicator is created, it is time to buy in installments.
Note
(BTCUSDT.P 1D chart)The 59100-64300 section corresponds to the upper section of the box on the 1M chart.
Accordingly, if it is supported and rises around 59100-64300, it is highly likely that the upward trend will continue.
However, from a short-term perspective, it is highly likely that the upward trend will continue only if the price rises above the HA-High indicator and MS-Signal indicator on the 1D chart and is maintained.
Therefore, from the current point of view, we can see that it must rise above 70320.3 to continue the upward trend.
If the StochRSI indicator rises from the oversold zone and StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, it is time to buy, depending on whether there is support at the support and resistance points.
(With the current settings of the StochRSI indicator, the oversold range is up to 30.)
Considering the above, it is highly likely that it is time to buy until it shows support around the 64300-65310 range.
The first split selling period will be around 70320.3, the HA-High indicator point on the 1D chart.
The M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart has risen to around 57K.
Accordingly, it can be supported and rise in the 59K (56K-61K) range and maintain an upward trend from a mid- to long-term perspective.
If the price falls without support near 64300-65310, it is likely to fall below 59K, so you should think about a response plan.
(1h chart)
In order to show an uptrend, the price must rise above the 5EMA and M-Signal indicators on the 1D chart to hold.
Accordingly, if it does not rise, it is possible to enter a SHORT position.
If 5EMA on the 1D chart > M-Signal on the 1D chart, there is a high possibility of a big uptrend.
Therefore, it is possible to enter a LONG position.
If the HA-Low indicator is touched and rises, it means that a low point has been formed.
This is also true for the 1h chart.
If it touches the HA-Low indicator and falls, it is likely to show a stepwise decline.
However, this stepwise decline is likely to play a role in creating a bottom section.
Note
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)The HA RSI indicator has risen above 70 and has risen into the overbought range.
When this month closes with a bearish candle, it is necessary to check whether the HA RSI indicator falls into the overbought range.
If the HA RSI indicator falls from the overbought range, there is a high possibility that a new HA-High indicator will be created.
If the HA-High indicator is generated while maintaining the price in the second section, the second section will become an even more important section.
If a new HA-High indicator appears to be forming in May, the key is whether it can be supported and rise around that area.
If you were unable to sell in installments when it fell in the first section, you will need to sell in installments when it fell in the second section.
However, if the HA-High indicator mentioned above is generated, the time when it shows resistance around it is the time for split selling.
The reason why you need to sell in installments is because it may fall near the 3rd range.
If there is a decline in the secondary zone or the newly created HA-High indicator, the first likely rebound is around the HA 5EMA.
At this time, if it falls below HA 5EMA and HA 5EMA turns into a downward trend, it is time to sell in installments.
Therefore, there are several opportunities ahead to either preserve profits or reduce losses.
Currently, StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, but due to this decline, StochRSI < StochRSI EMA may occur next month.
Then you need to sell in minimal installments to stabilize your psychological state.
The 59053.55-64000 section corresponds to the upper section of the box of the HA-High indicator.
Therefore, if it receives support and rises in this area, it is expected to continue its upward trend.
(1W chart)
On the 1W chart, the key is whether it can rise along an important rising channel.
(1D chart)
The volatility period is April 21-23.
Therefore, you need to check which direction the price deviates from the 59053.55-64000 range to maintain the price.
The channel consisting of the newly created trend line forms an expansion channel.
Therefore, we need to check whether a downward channel is formed when the StochRSI indicator rises to the overbought range.
If the StochRSI indicator fails to enter the overbought zone and falls back to the oversold zone, it is important to maintain the price above the newly created downward trend line.
If the price falls below the newly created downward trend line and maintains the price, it is highly likely that a further decline will eventually occur.
However, if the price falls to around 59053.55 and maintains the price, there is a possibility that a new HA-Low indicator will be created, so the key at this time is whether it can be supported and rise near the HA-Low indicator.
I explained it at length, but in the end, the key is whether you can receive support around 59K (56K-61K).
Note
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)The key is whether it can receive support and rise in the 64K-65233.64 range.
If not, you should check if you can find support around 59K (56K-61K).
The current trend line has transitioned from an upward trend to an expansion trend.
If the StochRSI indicator enters the overbought zone and then declines, a new trend line will be created, so you need to check what form the trend will take.
To determine whether an expansionary trend is switching to a downward trend, you need to check the movement of the StochRSI indicator when it rises into the overbought zone.
In order to create a new upward trend after breaking through the above flow, it is expected that the price must rise above 66401.82 and maintain the price.
At this time, the upward trend is expected to begin only when the HA-High indicator rises above.
If this is not the case and it falls after resistance around 64K-65233.64, it is expected to create a downward trend.
We need to check whether it can receive support and rise around 59K (56K-61K).
If it falls below 56K, it is important to receive support near the first and second levels and whether it can rise.
Note
#XRPUSDT#ADAUSDT
#SOLUSDT
#DOTUSDT
#TRXUSDT
#AVAXUSDT
#ATOMUSDT
#ALGOUSDT
#KLAYUSDT
#LINKUSDT
#OPUSDT
#WEMIXUSDT
These are coins that are expanding the coin ecosystem for which HA-Low indicators have been created or are showing signs of being created.
If the price is supported by the HA-Low indicator and rises above the MS-Signal indicator to maintain the price, it is time to buy.
If this is not the case and it declines, there is a high possibility of a cascading decline, so you need to think about a response plan.
USDC is showing a large gap increase.
Accordingly, we can see that a lot of funds are flowing through USDC.
Therefore, the above listed coins should be checked to see how they move around the HA-Low indicator.
The volatility period for BTC is April 21-23.
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