On the weekly timeframe, over the next month I'm looking to see if BTC will have consecutive candle closes above or below 18.9K. Confirming that key level as support or resistance
If we get a close above, looking to get a bullish retest to confirm more upside.
Watch the 200 Moving Average on the 12HR timeframe for bullish retests.
If we get a close below, we can define the current movement as a bearish retest and watch for next support levels tested before more downside.
Again we can use the 200 Moving average on the 12HR timeframe to see if we get a bearish retest at that level/lose support all together.
My personal thoughts are that we will confirm this level as resistance, we may get some wicks above on the weekly timeframe, I'll be watching the 200 MA on the 1D and 12HR to either confirm or invalidated my bearishness.
Trade idea: Catch Rejection off of 18.9K - 19.5K, ideally you want to wait for a bearish confirmation to enter shorts, not trying to predict the initial rejection.
Safe Entry: Bearish Retest on 4HR/12HR timeframe around 18.9K with 200 MA overhead as resistance
Bearish Targets: 18.2K - 17.8K Range, 17K
Bearish targets can extend to under 16K if BTC continues to lose support and confirm it as overhead resistance.