Based on the current market structure, it's possible that BTC might drop to the $95 level, but there are also arguments against it. Here's a balanced analysis:
Arguments For a Drop to $95:
1. Historical price action: BTC has previously shown a tendency to retest broken support levels, which could lead to a drop to $95.
2. Fibonacci retracement: A pullback to the $95 level would represent a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent uptrend.
3. Selling pressure: If the $100 demand floor fails to hold, it could trigger a cascade of sell orders, potentially pushing the price down to $95.
Arguments Against a Drop to $95:
1. Strong demand: The $100 demand floor has been a significant support level, and buyers may continue to defend it.
2. Bullish momentum: The recent uptrend has been strong, and a drop to $95 might be too deep, given the current momentum.
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