Over the last week we've seen a lot of optimism in our markets, but are we getting faked out?
Please refer to the charts below, there is no technical analysis whatsoever on the chart posted above.
It is worth noting that SPY has shown signs of relief and earnings are not as bad as anticipated... With that being said a relief bounce was expected, but have we met our end regarding BTCUSDT
We previously witnessed Bitcoin break it's bearish market structure and head to the upside, however it has once again broken that same structure on the HTF and began showing bearish signals.
Bitcoin had been dancing in it's previous range above 22,500 which was considered bullish. Here you can see the break down of that range and it's points of confluence on the 15 minute chart.
Chart-
As you can tell we've broken down through that range low, and now it's time to pay attention to the previous ranges from last week on the 4h HTF.
Here's that labeled chart, I'll go into detail after...
Chart-
This timeframe is where your focus needs to be...
As you can see last week we broke out of Bearish Market structure on the 4H (Why Optimism is high), however we have now broken back down through that MBS level. We look to head down here if we begin breaking those previous resistances which are now support from last weeks ranges. I expect Bitcoin to find some support through the value area but if you are a positional trader your main focus should be on major areas of confluence.
Remember, we can't predict the market, but we can find points of confluence and observe which direction price action takes from the levels.
We have major confluence at 20,300 and here's why...
This is the middle of our range, and Equilibrium found using the .5 level on the Fibonacci tool. This level is also very powerful in the fact that the , middle of our range finds confluence with our point of control, found using the Volume profile tool.
I plan to watch this area closely to make trade decisions if we begin to head towards it.
However this level could become irrelevant if we decide to reclaim the recent range above 22,500, only time will tell.
it's best to watch the high and low points of these ranges to conclude an overall market sediment, however for now am no longer bullish since Bitcoin has returned to last weeks range.
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