Sunday Dump. Retrace or Deeper Correction?
Updated
Hi guys, this is a follow up on the chart I published about a week ago, in that I made an observation for 8500 as possible bottom before the next leg up and an invalidation if it went lower.
Here is a follow up on that observation.
The BTC price somehow briefly rallied the past week amidst the global stocks panic with price tentatively rising above 8500 (as it briefly touched the liquidity zone at 8400) upto 9200. The relief rally however didn't sustain enough momentum as shown in the volume representing the price action of March 1 upto present relative to the previous volumes from the 6400 to 10500 rally.
A lot of high leverage liquidations in both the longs and shorts at 9000 to 9200 has me conclude (the meaningful movement in volume is mainly by whales or market makers/institutional investors dictating the price action) that momentum for a long above 9200 is not yet sustainable.
Amidst the coronavirus outbreak and the race for safe haven assets (with gold showing decent rally) I was personally leaning for a bullish movement since I was expecting an influx of cash from fund managers into crypto. And I thought I was validated with the sudden rally of alts and bitcoin 2 days ago, but ALAS! current price action had me exit my long and wait for some key levels before placing another position. At the end of the day, the price action and technical analysis dictates my trade and not personal sentiment.
So the following are some key levels and chart patterns I'm seting my eyes on at D1:
1. There is no clear Trend Structure yet with a widening wedge downward. Bearish scenario short term is still in play imho.
2. 8500 is the .50 fib level from the 6400 to 10500 rally, a key support level
3. 8000 is the .618 fib level from 6400 to 10500, a price below this would invalidate my medium term long (2 weeks)
4. 7800 to 7900 is .618 support level from 3900 to 13900 rally, so the 7800 to 8000 is a price zone that is the long term support for the 14k level.
A break below this will make me adjust my bullish expectations for the upcoming halving.
5. If price remains above 8000 for the next week then I will be expecting an accumulation phase. I would also be keeping an eye on news events.
6. If price remains above 8500 then a swing up to 9000 can occur which may form a potential double top with resistance at 9200 (bearish scenario mid term) or if price breaks above 9200, then 9400 is next target, which may allow resumption of bullish trend to 14k in confluence with the halving narrative this May 2020.
Last Note: The Coronavirus is just starting to unfold in the US and Italy and soon central and Western Europe. This is a Black Swan event. The ensuing panic can cause irrational decisions (imho nobody eats bitcoin) and trigger a race for liquidity and long term hedge on ESTABLISHED SAFE HAVEN ASSETS like Gold and Silver. Safe Trades All.
Here is a follow up on that observation.
The BTC price somehow briefly rallied the past week amidst the global stocks panic with price tentatively rising above 8500 (as it briefly touched the liquidity zone at 8400) upto 9200. The relief rally however didn't sustain enough momentum as shown in the volume representing the price action of March 1 upto present relative to the previous volumes from the 6400 to 10500 rally.
A lot of high leverage liquidations in both the longs and shorts at 9000 to 9200 has me conclude (the meaningful movement in volume is mainly by whales or market makers/institutional investors dictating the price action) that momentum for a long above 9200 is not yet sustainable.
Amidst the coronavirus outbreak and the race for safe haven assets (with gold showing decent rally) I was personally leaning for a bullish movement since I was expecting an influx of cash from fund managers into crypto. And I thought I was validated with the sudden rally of alts and bitcoin 2 days ago, but ALAS! current price action had me exit my long and wait for some key levels before placing another position. At the end of the day, the price action and technical analysis dictates my trade and not personal sentiment.
So the following are some key levels and chart patterns I'm seting my eyes on at D1:
1. There is no clear Trend Structure yet with a widening wedge downward. Bearish scenario short term is still in play imho.
2. 8500 is the .50 fib level from the 6400 to 10500 rally, a key support level
3. 8000 is the .618 fib level from 6400 to 10500, a price below this would invalidate my medium term long (2 weeks)
4. 7800 to 7900 is .618 support level from 3900 to 13900 rally, so the 7800 to 8000 is a price zone that is the long term support for the 14k level.
A break below this will make me adjust my bullish expectations for the upcoming halving.
5. If price remains above 8000 for the next week then I will be expecting an accumulation phase. I would also be keeping an eye on news events.
6. If price remains above 8500 then a swing up to 9000 can occur which may form a potential double top with resistance at 9200 (bearish scenario mid term) or if price breaks above 9200, then 9400 is next target, which may allow resumption of bullish trend to 14k in confluence with the halving narrative this May 2020.
Last Note: The Coronavirus is just starting to unfold in the US and Italy and soon central and Western Europe. This is a Black Swan event. The ensuing panic can cause irrational decisions (imho nobody eats bitcoin) and trigger a race for liquidity and long term hedge on ESTABLISHED SAFE HAVEN ASSETS like Gold and Silver. Safe Trades All.
Note
I've shorted at 8700 after the accumulation sorted out. my algo just saved me the wait and potential heartache. im keeping my tp set to 8200 and with further continuation of a downward trend i'll be leaning to short till 8000. safe trades all 🙏Note
8170 seemed to be the bottom although D1 candle at UTC still got 7 more hours to go before closing. i tp at 8200, although my indicators still show momentum downward. overall im happy from the 8700 to 8200 short.next stop is the CME gap at 8500. as of writing price action is forming a V and price is going to 8300.
we may wick to 8500 before continuing the downtrend or continue upward to 9000.
either way, my trade set up was only until 8200 to 8000.
right now on the sideline watching the price action unfold and waiting for the next opportunity to present itself. till then, safe trades all 🙏
Note
Hey guys, Bloody Sunday well into Monday. Indeed, price has gone down faster in BTC and other alts. BTC is slowly going to touch the Weekly Low, and ETH soon will break MA daily.7800 seems to be holding, but my indicators show no sign of slowing momentum.
IF 7800 fails as support, 7700 then 7500 are next. Needless to say, breaking the .618 historical support from the 3900 to 13900 rally doesnt bode well for a new ATH foe the upcoming halving.
But we are in the midst of a Black Swan event, and i think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the markets.
The OPEC + 1 talks in Vienna did not pan out, Saudi is vowing to open its taps prompting a big drop in the Oil Futures. But cheap oil may not even be enough to generate steam to counter this plunge.
Reassurances from the government will provide relief bounces but until Coronavirus is controlled, I'm afraid we may yet to see bottom in all assets (except of course Gold, Silver, and Bonds). Safe trades all 🙏
Note
Hey guys, IHS spotted at H4 BTC chart as of time of writing. invalidation is at 7725, volume still needs to pick up. 9060 cme gap waiting.
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