BTC/USD Secondary trend. Channel. Pivot zones. 18 08 2023

Updated

Logarithm. Time frame 3 days.

Uptrend channel. Pivot zones in it from the reaction of key local support/resistance levels. The price now after the impulse of decrease by -13% from the reversal zone is in the potential of forming a local descending channel.

This entire price range of the secondary trend channel from the position of the next cycle and distribution zone is 1 accumulation zone. That is, conditionally, “very cheap”, no matter how expensive/cheap it may seem at the moment of local trend development.

Trading volume.

Note the trading volume for this entire period from June 2022 to now. Since March 2023 the volume is “super downgraded”, i.e. from the exit from the accumulation zone. Clearly, the big market participants do not want to sell, and on the contrary, after buying they withdraw everything to cold storage of bitcoin and into “hibernation” until the next bull cycle, which is logical.

This is how it looks on the linear.

Part of the main trend and a given secondary trend (channel) in it. Time frame 1 month. Conditional triangle (meaning).

BTC/USD Main trend (part). Forming potential. Triangle

BTC/USD Main trend (part). Potential to form a triangle

Main trend Linear. cycles.

BTC/USD Secondary Trend Cycles and Halvings

Note

price further consolidates in the lower zone of the channel, after the dump on 18 08 2023 at -13.825%, thus forming a local triangle formation, like after the dump on 13 03 2020. This is similar on most altcoins, but with more volatility due to lower liquidity.

Local % on exit (exit and consolidation) from this zone is shown. Also shown are key support and resistance zones in the secondary trend.

Note

The most likely scenario is a slight decline along the channel (negative/positive FUD of small strength) and growth to its resistance. Then a decline and strong growth.

We need to realize that now the reversal zone/dump stop is about +47% from the breakout of the local accumulation zone (2 months, extra). Maximum +82% (not the lows).

Most importantly, if you've been following the spoofing on the exchanges, you've noticed where large orders are standing for the crush (don't want to sell naturally). Consequently, it does not matter where the price can fail in the channel zone locally (the zones are highlighted in gray), it is important at what prices will be sold, what can be redeemed, but not in this intermediate (the bulk of the volume) so-called cycle.

Note

Local trend. Price squeeze zone. Sideways after dump 10 days. The price is squeezed for the second day at $26,000 and is held by orders in the spread on liquid exchanges. There is a probability of impulse from this zone to the zone of short shorts stops 27300. Maximum local movement to 28390.11 (low probability) if a positive news FUD plays out before the SEC's response to ETF-BTC filings.

Local. The momentum zone to short the local area. Probably will pull up the news background now or on the US GDP report (stock market reaction and mapping to crypto).

There is very little time left until early September. Events (news game) and their timing, which will certainly affect the price and trend direction of BTC and the market as a whole are marked on the chart.

Note

Expected, logical impulse from the price squeeze zone due to shorts #StopLoss currently +6.3%

Emphasizing the interconnected posts. Read and watch carefully. Observe risk management in trading.

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Time Frame 4 hours. Local work. Everything is shown on the chart. The price was lowered to the crossing of the meridian of the big ascending channel (its center) and support 26054. Probably will come up with a little later "news" for another local wave up for a set of shorts, perhaps all the way to 28,000, just above the previous impulse (a probability that is decided by the situation, not "according to plan").

Globally, we follow the more likely scenario shown in the idea earlier with a blue marker, zone 23600, possible slippage in the moment, but not below 20,000 at this point in time, otherwise the channel will break, the price will be difficult to pull out (but, remember that global events do not care about all this - the trigger is the events in China in the fall).

Before the BTC halving is capitulation. Trend reversal and entry into a real bull cycle of BTC (not as "bullish" as many expect - "first run") will occur with a high probability when the spot ETF - BTC to all "giants" will be approved under the schedule, first of all the Trigger may be Black Rock. The dates of the news localized dump/dump are known in advance. Special attention to the time zone of October 17.

News for the local dump at the moment (there is no FUD news stream yet) - Spot ETF-btc consideration of applications, as expected, was logically postponed to October 17th. After the negative, there will be a local positive news. Therefore, observe risk management. Don't risk your BTC for a small price move.

Medium-term, and even more so globally, they will let everyone earn money because global digitalization is underway .. Provided that you do not have unnecessary senseless body movements in the market and violations of risk management.

Note

Prolonged jamming of the Price after a decline in a super narrow range of volatility. Everyone is waiting for a further fall. Stop Losses to shorts are accumulating.

Big probability, as before, said impulse for final removal of shorts and liquidity gathering. Two local targets are shown. Alts will also shoot and by a higher % depending on the reaction and launch of positive fud in the moment. After the impulse, a strong price decline and negative fud is very likely. Use the stops. They will be short in this case.

Note

Local work. Nothing has not changed during the week, as well as before all liquid exchanges jammed the price in a narrow range near the zone of $26,054 level. Everything is actual, as well as before.

Note

After removing the stop loss locally yesterday by a small % back to the price squeeze zone of 26,054. Everything is as before. Impulse to the short zone (where you need to be careful), or what is less likely from this long-term zone of clamping the realization of a downward flag. In the voice I will explain what to what for 6 days and what will be further.

Note

price has reached by squeeze the resistance level of long-term price squeeze range $27300 (1 local long target) +8.21%. From it locally on the small time frame now there is a pullback. The price is lowered back to the 32-day squeeze zone. But, above the 26500 resistance. Important support/resistance zones are shown on the chart on which the development of the local trend depends with arrows and percentages from them. More globally look in the idea itself on a larger time frame by pressing the "play" button on the chart.

Note

+8.18% to the zone of the level 28390.11 (exact price on binance squeezed 28580). The price is in the local ascending channel, from its resistance pullback. Local zones are circled on the price chart. More global price movements, not this "sawing" look in the trading idea itself.

Note that all these levels were set a long time ago in advance (many months ago) and not all of them are quite according to TA, or rather with a small addition. Who sees it is good, who doesn't - it's okay. Observe risk and mani management in trading, do not work with large shoulders, especially on futures. Preferably work in spot. Then you will understand everything.

Note

Local work. Be careful who trades locally, the price at the meridian of the local ascending channel. There may be a spill over, to its dynamic formation support, from this zone. Important resistance zone 28390.11 Local interest to key reversal zones shown.

Note

Local work. The first local target of shorting -3.27% has been reached to the level of 27,300. The local ascending channel is broken, the price is under its support. Now the second important reversal zone is the intersection of the meridian of the more global channel and the support level 26506.26. The breakout of this zone will give a rapid drop in price (-6.66% from the level of 27,300 or even lower) and on the contrary an upward impulse if this zone is held. To understand the essence and why this zone is so important for medium-term trend development, see the larger time frame (or the original trading idea).

Let me remind you that tomorrow is October 13, the last decision date for the SEC to appeal the Grayscale case. Hence, by the benefit of the moment and "fabulous news" will make the denouement.

Note

The zone of 26506.26 was held. Breakout of local descending and strong impulse due to accumulated huge short positions. The target from 27300 to 28580 is taken +5.84% Impulse to the zone of resistance level 29526.51.

News background. SEC Won't appeal court ruling on Grayscale Bitcoin ETF.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffarth reported that talks between Grayscale and the SEC will begin next week and the regulator will likely issue a new response within the next 2 weeks (#psychology confusion, uncertainty),

James Seyffarth also said that ProShares will launch the Short #ETH Strategy ETF, which will begin trading on October 16 (2 days from now). SEC accelerates approval of all Ethereum futures ETFs.

Note that 13 10 was the deadline, but it's no longer a deadline😁. Will be pulling the "rubber" and overplaying their advantage in the moment. As a rule, all crypto news should be read backwards🧠. Only sometimes at the beginning of local trend reversal to connect the crowd as fuel (confirmation of expectations) they can be conditionally true.

Note

The SEC approved iShares' spot BTC ETF (possibly a FUD fake), but momentum into the short zone is made on this news.

Note

+15.72% from the price reversal zone on 13 10. We have almost reached the level of, 31327 (from which we reversed twice last time). This “level” is nothing but the support zone of the former bull cycle distribution zone.

In fact, we are locally and medium-term following the most positive scenario (no breakout of the meridian of the big ascending channel and price growth from it, indicated by the dotted bold line). After the exposure of the ETF fake ETF repeat the price movement, at the moment a little higher. This is a positive sign, as is the fact that price is now above the 29500 weekly candle of the August local "dump" (draining from the second top from the local distribution zone).

Not breaking through this zone 31,327- triple top and price decline, to start locally to 28580, which is the support zone of the local channel. The next local zone to stop the decline is the same meridian of the big channel (dynamic support), prices are different +- depending on the time of reaching it. Also remember that there can be an impulse false breakout.

Breakout of this zone 31,327 and consolidation—after a sideways consolidation, rapid price growth to the resistance of the big channel 34 - 36660.35. The maximum extremely positive scenario is the entry into the zone of the former distribution closer to the average reset price of 40582.81

If this happens, a full-fledged so-called #altseason will begin

Note

Described above on a weekly time frame

Note

as an addition so visualize the two 2020-2021 distribution zones and this price movement from accumulation #1 end of 2022 and understand where price is now on that scale.

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18 hours after the last update, the momentum from the support 29525.61 (marked in red) to the dynamic resistance zone of the big ascending channel +17%.

The price fixed by large orders at the moment by the algorithm of liquid top exchanges +- in these values. This represents 33.10% from the 26506.26 reversal level and the 23700 exit (indicated in yellow). The 237 "level" ( i.e. 23700) has been present since the idea was published, publication of course on 18 08

Or 39.69% (exactly according to the binance magnet) of the minimum reversal level of this trend 25237 (marked in purple color, that is the minimums of this trend). Marked it 1 09 2023.

Went for the most bullish scenario (green initial marker at publication. Everything is very nicely done by the market maker, right almost copying 2015 (2019-2020 similarity is also there). Someone will say that it is the same behavior of people, that is, market psychology makes the same patterns. I agree with that, but partially. Directed in the same way, that's why it's the same. The crowd is not the basis of the movement. The crowd is fuel no more. This is very evident if you follow the "three line" news nonsense (you don't need that for trading, the chart conventionally accounts for everything). I doubt 2014 -2015 on low liquid crypto used an "algorithm", although quite possible, but more no's than e's (stocks over 20 years if you trace). Most likely certain trend patterns are taken as a basis (gold, oil, liquid stocks, or temporary previous periods if the asset in the past and the asset now) When they (this fractality, and that it will be exactly "as it should be") is noticed by the majority - PR, yes, here it is, the "golden grail", we caught (the crowd) "God by the beard" - all bummer. How to protect ourselves from various kinds of surprises was said and written earlier, I will not repeat myself. Profit on the markets and reason.

Note

About so-called elementary codes, I show them (meaning and display on price charts), but this is as an addition, so that you understand what they are. Perhaps it will interest you and you will want to learn something more important than "speculation codes" (they are not such) and it will give you an impetus to "learn the impossible" for the "sleepers". It's hardly a positive realization, although in the beginning it certainly is. There is as is.

Re-read carefully before the last paragraph of the previous post, this is also this topic with codes. Especially locally. I am very clear from the position of technical analysis (TA), the basis is the key reversal zones and the logic of "more and less probable price movement", in other words the risk/profit ratio from the reversal zones, i.e. #management. Both locally (time-consuming, I don't always have time to update) and medium-term and global, so that a person had a clear idea of the development of price movement in trends and what to expect in certain time intervals.

I assure you that to earn constantly on the markets (any) you do not need anything else! It also excludes the position of "vangovanie" and guessing "where it will go". Let it go wherever you want (risk/profit, understanding #turn zones, #trends #cycles (in what scale you work and what you expect in a certain period of time). The main thing is that you should understand it and be ready for more or less probable scenario of price movement development (calculated ahead) according to your experience and mind.

It is not logical in a short time period to wait for the distribution target of the end of 2024 -2025, it is not logical. Pardon me for being blunt. But, that's exactly what #DumbMoney (the basis of market profits) is doing. Stay relevant, it's clear that once a year a stick (one in 13,000) shoots, but hoping for that probability is extremely foolish. Be different, who are in the minority.

Trading is simple, don't complicate simple things. That's what most people do, that's where all the trader's woes come from.

How to protect yourself from all kinds of surprises was said and written earlier, I will not repeat myself. Profit on the markets and have a good mind.

Note

after 12 days. The price is squeezed under the resistance of the ascending channel. I've written everything out and shown schematically and what the point is on the chart.

BTC is a projection of the altcoin market locally, remember this, but the goals in % ratio are absolutely different in favor of altcoins, the lower the liquidity and capitalization, the greater the % at the moment of a conditional clear beforehand denouement.

Trade active

Tomorrow 9 11 (now only 15:15 in New York) there is a possible impulse (realization of the rising flag) to start, for example to the zone 38) on BTC or in the near future.

🟠If this happens (clone fractal 2 of BTC cycle, beginning of the “participation” phase), it can have a positive effect on the alt season (continuation), especially mid-liquidity, closer to low liquidity, which have not had trend reversal impulses yet, or they were not at a significant %. It is possible to re-enter trades if after strong impulses there is a significant pullback and the price decline is held, i.e. there will be a continuation of the uptrend development.

RISK MANAGEMENT

⚠️remember, about HYIP garbage and various "memes-technologies", the lower the hype (sell at any price, move to create interest, hype, "sense of lost profit") the greater the profit in the moment (took profit and forgot about the phantom). Always on such "useful for the crowd" crypto wrappers on big profits, limit your potential losses, even if you do not believe it because of zombie news in the media in "three lines" and reviews of bloggers-"traders".

Always protect your profit (part or all of your position according to your risk management, especially if it is substantial regardless of trend direction. The ideal tool for this is a banal stop loss. It is more rational to use OCO orders like on binance (take profit + stop at the same time).

Trade closed: target reached

momentum +5.56% to the level of 38000.58 9 11 New York. At the moment it acts as a false breakout (into the stop-loss zone of short positions). Many alts shot up to a higher % by an order of magnitude, and merged partially on the pullback, which is logical (retracement-positive-negative-liquidity).

If it will consolidate above 36660.35 - continuation of price growth and powerful dump of all alts will continue (except for liquid "heavy", i.e. "will not overtake the market").

If there will be no consolidation - then the entrance to the former zone and consolidation.

Note

19 11 2023

Note

Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Rising channel. The chart shows key support/resistance levels for working in a local trend.

Code zone 273 or synchronization specifically with the price of $27,300 - this is the main key break zone of the downward trend. We are now in the zone of the previous distribution of the 2020-2021 cycle.

SpartaBTC

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