Short

Bitcoin Heading To New Lows?

Updated

Volatility has dropped to near historic lows and BTC is breaking out of the bottom of this triangle. We are likely to see a big move down coming very soon as volatility tends to rapidly increase after reaching its low point. If Wave-e is retraced faster than it was formed that means we've probably ended Wave-D and are going to see Wave-E taking BTC down to around 10k by the end of the year or early next year.

Based on the time target for Wave-D it's very likely it has ended now. There are also strong momentum divergences, price action indicators, and moving averages indicating we should see a big move down soon. Fundamental and Macroeconomic factors are also bearish.

If this retracement of wave-e continues slowly then we may see a wave-f and wave-g before the larger wave-D is finished, but long-term remains similar in that we won't see a real bull market for almost 2 years.

Note

Long-term forecasts and targets posted here:

Bitcoin Long-Term Forecast: $10k in 2024, <$6K in 2025

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As mentioned previously, it is possible we are forming a wave-f and wave-g before the larger wave-D/X is finished. If this is the case then we are probably going to grind sideways for the rest of the year and possibly make one very minor new high at the peak of wave-g, before getting a much larger decline.

Since support has held so far, I suspect this is going to be the case. So unless we get a clear break down of support, we should assume that this will retest the highs later this year, and it's a good idea to take some profit on our shorts now and re-open at a higher price.

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While there is still a good chance we could see sideways/up for the rest of the year, I am still short here albeit with a tighter stop loss.

Based on momentum indicators, moving averages, Elliott Wave, and the general 'look and feel' of price action it seems like crypto is preparing for an imminent break down to the next level of support.

Assuming we break down from this range, the next level of support for BTC is the 61.8% retracement around the psychological 20k level. I suspect after we hit that level we'll see a decent sized bounce, possibly as high as , before we make the next move lower.

So around 20k I will look to hedge my short swaps position with long at-the-money call options. This will allow me to continue to profit from my shorts if the price drops lower than 20k less the premium paid for the options, but will also hedge my short position if price goes back to or higher.

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After the failed breakdown, it seems like support will hold and we will get a wave-g (and probably wave-h and wave-i after that) as forecasted before. Some alts could go much higher during this final phase of the bull market.

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