Bitcoin 4hr analysis 3/4/2021
Good morning again ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to my daily look into the ups and downs of Bitcoin. Today I have the 4hr pulled up once again mainly because it is meshing with my trading setup so well at the moment. There is quite a bit going on with the 4hr time frame and I will touch on the direction I believe we are heading next. So pull up a chair and grab a coffee and lets get this party started!!
So yesterday when I did my analysis things looked a lot better. We had just broke out of the 4hr cloud and looked to be on our way to another possible pump... We retook the 4hr 50 MA (Orange line) and the 4hr cloud (albeit briefly) *The cloud is the green/red amorphous shape that the candles are currently stuck inside of. This is typical behavior when the candles are inside the cloud. Consolidation. Right now we have plenty of support below us in the range of 45500 (200 MA {Blue line}) all the way up to the 4hr 50 MA (orange line) The 50 MA I just mentioned is also stuck inside the cloud for the time being and since we are above the indicator on the chart all hope is not lost.
48500 seems to be a strong area of support. I laid my cursor upon this price and see that it has acted as support and resistance numerous times over the recent weeks. So if this holds we definitely have another shot at breaking up from this mess. But I would not necessarily hold my breath too long waiting for this to pass. The market is quite unpredictable, even though I do try my best every day to give you an idea of what is coming nobody is perfect. Except Mr Perfect of course :) This is the reason I always bring up using stop losses. Dont be the guy that claims you are impervious to the dips. You are not. Use risk management or you will end up REKT. Its only a matter of time.
I drew an ascending trend line that began at our test of the 4hr 200 MA (blue line) End of February and it looks like we fell through the ascending support of the trend therefore by all logic the trend is lost. Although it was a short lived trend it is evident we lost the support of the ascending trend line. What is next? Perhaps we still go up? Im not remortgaging my home to invest but I will say Bitcoin has a mind of its own so dont assume too much. BTC may just surprise you. If we do drop I see a lot of support between 45k and 48k. I mentioned that earlier but I want to tell you all the support here: The 4hr 50 MA (orange line) is @ 48k and just below that we have the bottom border of the 4hr cloud and that sits at around 47k at the moment, we also have the 200 MA (blue line) around 45700. Then just below that we have the support at 42k which should not be ignored. We did top out there in January therefore traders are likely looking there for support. But WTFDIK???
I tried to help the noobs a bit with this analysis by being quite descriptive when I describe the indicators Im using. (telling you the color of the lines and prices they are at) I think doing stuff like this is helpful to the noobs and I hope it helped you learn a thing or 2. Right now since we are inside of the 4hr cloud things may look a little overcast. Cloudy outside. And that may be the truth. But I will save my bearish moans for when we lose the real line in the sand (IMO) the daily 50 MA. The daily 50 MA is at 48k so if that holds all hope is not lost. If we do lose the support of the daily 50 MA traders may look at it as a "writing on the wall" event and decide to cash in. Only time will tell for sure though. In the mean time make good choices my friends!!! And always remember WTFDIK???
TLDR: (Thank you to whoever told me to hold shift while creating a regular line. It does make it straight!!!) The bulls are sleeping in today so watch out for that. We are still above a lot of support so not all hope is lost. 42k is the real line in the sand but losing the daily 50 MA could kick start a bear run IMO.
So yesterday when I did my analysis things looked a lot better. We had just broke out of the 4hr cloud and looked to be on our way to another possible pump... We retook the 4hr 50 MA (Orange line) and the 4hr cloud (albeit briefly) *The cloud is the green/red amorphous shape that the candles are currently stuck inside of. This is typical behavior when the candles are inside the cloud. Consolidation. Right now we have plenty of support below us in the range of 45500 (200 MA {Blue line}) all the way up to the 4hr 50 MA (orange line) The 50 MA I just mentioned is also stuck inside the cloud for the time being and since we are above the indicator on the chart all hope is not lost.
48500 seems to be a strong area of support. I laid my cursor upon this price and see that it has acted as support and resistance numerous times over the recent weeks. So if this holds we definitely have another shot at breaking up from this mess. But I would not necessarily hold my breath too long waiting for this to pass. The market is quite unpredictable, even though I do try my best every day to give you an idea of what is coming nobody is perfect. Except Mr Perfect of course :) This is the reason I always bring up using stop losses. Dont be the guy that claims you are impervious to the dips. You are not. Use risk management or you will end up REKT. Its only a matter of time.
I drew an ascending trend line that began at our test of the 4hr 200 MA (blue line) End of February and it looks like we fell through the ascending support of the trend therefore by all logic the trend is lost. Although it was a short lived trend it is evident we lost the support of the ascending trend line. What is next? Perhaps we still go up? Im not remortgaging my home to invest but I will say Bitcoin has a mind of its own so dont assume too much. BTC may just surprise you. If we do drop I see a lot of support between 45k and 48k. I mentioned that earlier but I want to tell you all the support here: The 4hr 50 MA (orange line) is @ 48k and just below that we have the bottom border of the 4hr cloud and that sits at around 47k at the moment, we also have the 200 MA (blue line) around 45700. Then just below that we have the support at 42k which should not be ignored. We did top out there in January therefore traders are likely looking there for support. But WTFDIK???
I tried to help the noobs a bit with this analysis by being quite descriptive when I describe the indicators Im using. (telling you the color of the lines and prices they are at) I think doing stuff like this is helpful to the noobs and I hope it helped you learn a thing or 2. Right now since we are inside of the 4hr cloud things may look a little overcast. Cloudy outside. And that may be the truth. But I will save my bearish moans for when we lose the real line in the sand (IMO) the daily 50 MA. The daily 50 MA is at 48k so if that holds all hope is not lost. If we do lose the support of the daily 50 MA traders may look at it as a "writing on the wall" event and decide to cash in. Only time will tell for sure though. In the mean time make good choices my friends!!! And always remember WTFDIK???
TLDR: (Thank you to whoever told me to hold shift while creating a regular line. It does make it straight!!!) The bulls are sleeping in today so watch out for that. We are still above a lot of support so not all hope is lost. 42k is the real line in the sand but losing the daily 50 MA could kick start a bear run IMO.
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