Okay so the cost to mine 1 btc for the average user in china is approximately 7600 as of yesterday, but the difficulty adjusted 7% up so i reckon that we should take some profit at 8130 ish. i really think this can go higher.
sure theres miners elsewhere in the world who can mine for cheaper, but generally speaking the majority of the hash is in china, so the majority of coins being minted have a base cost of 7600 ISH
that being said... Into the halving we will see new equipment from bitmain being released (which im sure they are already using) and it will be capable of mining bitcoin at around 10,000 per coin AFTER the halvening. assuming the unit itself costs 2000 dollars and you are to use it for 2-2.5 years.
are we going to see miner capitulation? or are we going to see the price rise as the hashrate increases and minimum cost per coin increases?
draw your own conclusions. Nobody knows for sure.