Here we go again ! - BTCUSDT ANALYSIS
Updated
Conclusion since the last analysis : we are always waiting for buying volumes and like I said in the few past analysis (attached to this one), if we don't find some buying volumes we will go deeper to find some.
So, we didn't find buying volumes and it's kinda frustrating because the setup was pretty to have a good signal : exhaust of volumes, buying pressure, majors levels and a nice start of short U-Turn. Unfortunetly the closing candle of the US session was murderous, we didn't had buying volume .... so we go deeper with selling volumes. Did it change something for us ? Absolutly not ! I said "lower it is better it is" in the yellow area (because the biggest level is the bottom of the area) and when I spoke about volumes at the first stop I said that I was expecting the same reaction on the bottom. And here we are ! We have volumes again, we have a selling exhaust again, we have buying pressure again, we have levels again, so .... we wait buying volumes again ! And I prefer to specify : the down channel isn't reintegrated, we are always on it.
Wyckoff pattern is hard to navigate, like I already explain, it's an emotional pattern, we search extreme fear to take the most of profit of the market. And until we didn't break the spring pattern there is no reason for me to change my vision of the future evolution.
I remind : "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions". If you change your mind before the end of your strategy, you don't applicate what you learned for.
What happen if we go deeper ?
In fact, in my strategy it's the last level to considerate the spring pattern, and so, the wyckoff accumulation pattern. If we see a selling volume breaking the pin, it's the end of the pattern and I will look for the next setup to target.
I said in one of my past analysis : "even if we go lower than the yellow area, don't forget that we are on support until $39,500 and we are not in bear market until $28,200" and it's always the case so there will be other opportunities.
I also want to remind : 0 entry on market since my first analysis about this pattern (9 days ago). Some beginner which trade with emotions have probably already took 3-4 positions .... and 3-4 stop loss. I said PATIENCE, WAIT, you win money by not loosing it. So just continue to do it until you have a clean signal in your strategy.
PS : Apologize for my english, I do my best. Don't forget to like, follow or even comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue !
So, we didn't find buying volumes and it's kinda frustrating because the setup was pretty to have a good signal : exhaust of volumes, buying pressure, majors levels and a nice start of short U-Turn. Unfortunetly the closing candle of the US session was murderous, we didn't had buying volume .... so we go deeper with selling volumes. Did it change something for us ? Absolutly not ! I said "lower it is better it is" in the yellow area (because the biggest level is the bottom of the area) and when I spoke about volumes at the first stop I said that I was expecting the same reaction on the bottom. And here we are ! We have volumes again, we have a selling exhaust again, we have buying pressure again, we have levels again, so .... we wait buying volumes again ! And I prefer to specify : the down channel isn't reintegrated, we are always on it.
Wyckoff pattern is hard to navigate, like I already explain, it's an emotional pattern, we search extreme fear to take the most of profit of the market. And until we didn't break the spring pattern there is no reason for me to change my vision of the future evolution.
I remind : "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions". If you change your mind before the end of your strategy, you don't applicate what you learned for.
What happen if we go deeper ?
In fact, in my strategy it's the last level to considerate the spring pattern, and so, the wyckoff accumulation pattern. If we see a selling volume breaking the pin, it's the end of the pattern and I will look for the next setup to target.
I said in one of my past analysis : "even if we go lower than the yellow area, don't forget that we are on support until $39,500 and we are not in bear market until $28,200" and it's always the case so there will be other opportunities.
I also want to remind : 0 entry on market since my first analysis about this pattern (9 days ago). Some beginner which trade with emotions have probably already took 3-4 positions .... and 3-4 stop loss. I said PATIENCE, WAIT, you win money by not loosing it. So just continue to do it until you have a clean signal in your strategy.
PS : Apologize for my english, I do my best. Don't forget to like, follow or even comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue !
Note
SO, it pass a long time and we are always lateralizing on the bottom of the area. It's not in favor of buyers, I really don't like the candle which actually made the lowest point. It's not a selling volume, there is buying pressure in it, selling pressure also, kind of a big doji. I don't expect any entry on this setup anymore. I hope price will go lower to target new pattern for entry. If it's not the case and go up with buying volume, I will wait the support lines of Wyckoff accumulation pattern (around $46,000) to see reaction on it and see if it could bring us to, at least, $52,000.
PS : If you was in the short daily setup I made the 29th of december, you can seriously think to pass breakeven, it made half of the target already, and we are on the support area that I put forward. Half of the money you do is the money you don't lose.
Note
This is more this type of pattern we was waiting for on the spring area. Unfortunately, not on the 1 hour timeframe, not after lateralizing and not as deep.It's just show you a short U-Turn pattern with buying volume out of it.
This isn't a signal here but it can bring a nice mouvement of consolidation but it's not what I'm searching here on a 1 hour timeframe.
It could be a low on daily timeframe if we do a nice bull day but we will see that in the next few days.
Note
Another nice setup here, we see a lateralization without selling volume ending by a selling exhaust, a nice pin in the imbalance area and the reject of it, followed by a buying volume. So it is a nice setup again, why it isn't a signal of entry ? We don't have a downtrend before it, exactly the same reason why I wouldn't take the down signal of the 29th december (you can find it in my past idea). I try to have all stars aligned to be sure to have the most of success target probability.The goal of a signal like that is to go 66% of the time around $44,000 not 33% of the time, another 33% breakeven on $43,000 and last 33% with loss at $41,200.
Here again : "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions".
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