16/09/24 Weekly outlook
Last weeks high: $60,638.89
Last weeks low: $54,371.86
Midpoint: 57,505.38
Bitcoins price action mirrored that of the week that proceeded it, with a steady climb from the start of the week, peaking on Friday close, witha weekend sell off to end the week. Looking at the chart the Midpoint needs to hold if there is a chance of continuing the rally beyond $60,000. I could see price action being nervy until the FOMC in midweek.
Last week we saw BTC go through multiple news events such as CPI, PPI in the US but also the ECB rate cut decision. The European central bank cut the interest rate from 4.25% to 3.65%, a cut of 60bps.
This news has flown under the radar in my opinion, not many people are reporting on it could play a part in the FEDs decision on Wednesday. So far the rate cut looks to be a 25bps reduction from 5.50% to 5.25%. That leaves the US significantly higher than Europe and so in theory Europe would have the opportunity to be more risk-on than America as credit is cheaper.
I would think that the US wouldn't like this and would seek to do something about it, that something would be a bigger cut, a 50bps cut closer to the ECB would bring the US more inline. Naturally this being the beginning of the rate cut cycle it's a marathon not a sprint and although the ECB started out strong the cuts may taper off sooner than the US, that's a whole different story but for this week this is the big focus.
Last weeks low: $54,371.86
Midpoint: 57,505.38
Bitcoins price action mirrored that of the week that proceeded it, with a steady climb from the start of the week, peaking on Friday close, witha weekend sell off to end the week. Looking at the chart the Midpoint needs to hold if there is a chance of continuing the rally beyond $60,000. I could see price action being nervy until the FOMC in midweek.
Last week we saw BTC go through multiple news events such as CPI, PPI in the US but also the ECB rate cut decision. The European central bank cut the interest rate from 4.25% to 3.65%, a cut of 60bps.
This news has flown under the radar in my opinion, not many people are reporting on it could play a part in the FEDs decision on Wednesday. So far the rate cut looks to be a 25bps reduction from 5.50% to 5.25%. That leaves the US significantly higher than Europe and so in theory Europe would have the opportunity to be more risk-on than America as credit is cheaper.
I would think that the US wouldn't like this and would seek to do something about it, that something would be a bigger cut, a 50bps cut closer to the ECB would bring the US more inline. Naturally this being the beginning of the rate cut cycle it's a marathon not a sprint and although the ECB started out strong the cuts may taper off sooner than the US, that's a whole different story but for this week this is the big focus.
Note
BTC arriving at the midpoint sooner than expected, to me this is a very key level.
I'd like to see a sweep and reclaim with strength, any prolonged time spent at this area is bad, accumulation just above the midpoint would worry me.
Note
Midpoint holds for now, 0.75 needs a quick flip to continue.
Note
Broken through the 4H 200EMA, will it hold?
FOMC in less than 36 hours. I could see a slow grind up towards weekly high before the interest rate decision is given.
Note
about 4 hours out from FOMC
Swing fail on the range high after being rejected at the FVG. Interesting next 24 hours ahead.
Note
Second tap of the red Orderblock zone after the FOMC decision.
Still no luck to get through it as yet but I do think the volatility will last a while before we get any obvious direction.
Note
The midpoint proved to be the key level, since then BTC has been steadily climbing.
The most interesting thing is despite BTCs climb, altcoins have outperformed it this week showing strength returning to altcoins. Could this be the start of another leg up in the Bullrun?
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