BTC / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES
Updated
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
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| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |
In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the >
BTCUSDT <- We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months.
- As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below.
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
- The "Higher Low" of June 2021 has been contested since mid-April this year and could be confirmed as support or resistance with the upcoming weekly close.
- Prior to the 2017 price rally, the bottom of the existing overarching uptrend channel was formed, at whose mid-trend line (resistance) we are currently located.
- Additionally, price is holding at the upper resistance line of the downtrend channel, which was formed at the last peak and has so far proven to be a significant directional guide.
- If this downtrend channel is broken and confirmed, we could see the USD 40,000 approach.
- The momentum indicators in the weekly TFs and higher are not meaningful; however, one can notice a small bearish divergence in the daily TFs, which argues against the aforementioned scenario.
- It is necessary to wait and evaluate the weekly closes neutrally, so that in the current noise of news, one does not rely on an erroneous assessment.
Z- You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one -Z
| ZielIstDieAutarkie |
If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.
Thank you and happy trading!Z
Note
1-MONTH - INTERVAL2-WEEK - INTERVAL
1-WEEK - INTERVAL
1-DAY - INTERVAL
Note
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle to close.
= despite this, the candle body has "ENGULFED" the old weekly candle.
> The "CLOSE" occurred below the HH of 2021 (28805.00 USD), which now serves as support.
> The price made another attempt to break out of the MTF downtrend channel, which it failed to do.
> The MTF trend channel midline of the lower uptrend channel, continues to serve as a resistance stad and achieved several reactions in the past.
> As a strong resistance, the "Higher Low" of 2022 (32917.17 USD), will come into play and will most likely trigger a Significant reaction.
The following "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the downward movement is still pending to be worked off:
= 0.618 - 0.65 (27272.30 - 27055.97 USD)
= 0.328 (27111.85 USD)
The following "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the upward movement is still to be worked off.
= 0.618 - 0.65 (30534.04 - 30967.10 USD)
= 0.75 - 0.786 (30967.10 - 31086.27 USD)
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" below continues to serve as support.
> The MA (20, 50, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 100) - serve as resistance.
> The MACD indicator confirms the indecision of the market.
> The RSI indicator confirms the indecision of the market.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
OVERVIEW
Note
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH> The candle formed a "BEARISH ENGULFING"
= this indicates a continuation of the sell-off.
> The "CLOSING PRICE" occurred within the HTF sideways trend channel, whose upper trendline was confirmed as resistance last week.
> We are experiencing additional resistance from the broken lower uptrend channel, whose middle trendline served as resistance and the candle now closed outside the trend channel.
> The next HTF support is the brown outlined trend line, which served as support several times in the past.
> If this fails to withstand selling pressure, in the "Worst - Case" the HH of 2017 (19798.68 USDT) represents a very strong support.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (25111.79 USDT) | 0.618 + 0.65 (23543.19 - 23179.38) | 1.618 (21266.08 USDT)
- MA | 50 (23863.00 USDT)
- POI | 21500.00; 22500.00 & 23500.00
- MSB | MTF = ATH/17 (19798.68)
RESISTANCES
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (27174.53 USDT)
- MA | 5; 8; 20; 100; 200 (27500.00 USDT)
- MSB | MTF = HH/21 (28805.00 USDT)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator has confirmed its bearish cross, which is the beginning of rising negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 30% line, confirming bearish momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Note
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.
> The "CLOSE" occurred outside the HTF lower bullish trend channel, whose lower trendline is confirmed as resistance.
> The next HTF support is the brown outlined trend line, which served as support several times in the past.
> Should this fail to withstand selling pressure, in the "Worst - Case" the HH of 2017 (19798.68 USDT) represents a very strong support.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (25111.79 USDT) | 0.618 + 0.65 (23543.19 - 23179.38) | 1.618 (21266.08 USDT)
- MA | 50 (23867.00 USDT)
- POI | 21500.00; 22500.00 & 23500.00
- MSB | MTF = ATH/17 (19798.68)
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (27174.53 USDT)
- MA | 5; 8; 20; 100; 200 (27500.00 - 28800.00 USDT)
- MSB | MTF = HH/21 (28805.00 USDT)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator has extended its bearish cross to a full movement, which means the beginning for further, falling momentum.
- The RSI indicator has the 30% line and has not changed.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Note
BITCOIN created another DOJI, which mirrors only the indecisiveness of the market.Because of this movement, all the levels from the previous update are the same.
The only thing that changed is the MA-Resistance area, which has gone down.
Note
MONTH - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH> The candle did not form a highlighting formation
= note that the shadow and wick of the candle have almost the same length.
> The candle confirmed the HTF downtrend channel as resistance and the price fell after the confirmation.
> The Higher Low from 2021 (28805.00) failed to hold as resistance and is now serving as resistance for the market.
> The candle closed above the 0.328 FIB (25111.79) despite all the negativity, which should be seen as the first Strong Support.
1 MONTH = 1 WEEK x Four (Price Action)
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