The BTC Project 2019, Phase 02, Edition 01
Updated
NOTE: I called the title PHASE 02, as I'm assuming Phase 01 of the BTC (upward trend on this wave) is completed.
Also the projected paths I have inserted are not to be assumed straight and direct price drops, one would assume it will zig zag all the way to the point like a elliot wave or its sub motions waves.
After identifying that BAT pattern, and with a double top, I expected the trend downwards.
If the BAT pattern holds true, it will go back to the channel to continue the April trend.
Observations:
I noted a bearish divergence in the 1 hrly and why the drop.
4 Hrly candle sticks have been engulfed by the recent rejection as a double top, even though it was stopped in the 7800, I still feel many people don't feel comfortable going in.
(as i type, i see it dropping)
I have a few options in the chart, each stage requires confirmation.
Assumptions:
Wave 5 completed as per blue lines.
Scenario 1:
BAT pattern takes us to the bottom of a supposedly wide symmetrical triangle (Marked in black lines)
Support or target is C.
If its stopped at around the 7000 to 72000 range finding support, then the ABCDE pattern (purple is invalid).
And therefore a continuation of the pennant channel.
Scenario 2:
BAT pattern holds true to its form and it takes us down to point C, where we find support at the 6300 range or so.
Then I see the ABCDE pattern taking place.
For now, I believe we are going towards a much needed correction where many have their buy orders ready.
BAT Pattern
Further related details:
BTC Dominance chart:
Also the projected paths I have inserted are not to be assumed straight and direct price drops, one would assume it will zig zag all the way to the point like a elliot wave or its sub motions waves.
After identifying that BAT pattern, and with a double top, I expected the trend downwards.
If the BAT pattern holds true, it will go back to the channel to continue the April trend.
Observations:
I noted a bearish divergence in the 1 hrly and why the drop.
4 Hrly candle sticks have been engulfed by the recent rejection as a double top, even though it was stopped in the 7800, I still feel many people don't feel comfortable going in.
(as i type, i see it dropping)
I have a few options in the chart, each stage requires confirmation.
Assumptions:
Wave 5 completed as per blue lines.
Scenario 1:
BAT pattern takes us to the bottom of a supposedly wide symmetrical triangle (Marked in black lines)
Support or target is C.
If its stopped at around the 7000 to 72000 range finding support, then the ABCDE pattern (purple is invalid).
And therefore a continuation of the pennant channel.
Scenario 2:
BAT pattern holds true to its form and it takes us down to point C, where we find support at the 6300 range or so.
Then I see the ABCDE pattern taking place.
For now, I believe we are going towards a much needed correction where many have their buy orders ready.
BAT Pattern
Further related details:
BTC Dominance chart:
Note
Some correction in the wording:Scenario 1:
BAT pattern takes us to the bottom of a supposedly wide symmetrical triangle (Marked in black lines)
Support or target is C.
If its stopped at around the 7000 to 72000 range finding support, then the ABCDE pattern (purple is valid).
And therefore a continuation of the pennant channel.
Scenario 2:
BAT pattern holds true to its form and it takes us down further than the black support line, it makes the pennant and the purble line path, INVALID.
Trade active
In the short time, based on the EMA, support lines, fib.4 red candle sticks on the 4 Hrly
10 EMA is resistance
20 EMA flattened out
price staying above the 0.318 fib, after bouncing of the 0.5 fib
Target1 reached for a BAT pattern.
RSI pointing downwards\momentum
200 EMA acting as support\entry to buy in line with the potential pennant, yet to be proven.
Conclusion: WAIT for better signs. Eg. Green candle above the 20 EMA
Note
Note
or this.Note
A number of possibilities?Trade active
Back to the basics:In the 4 hrly chart,
We have the 20 MA being touched often. and we have a rising 200 MA.
We have candle sticks that are going sideways, like its consolidating.
What annoys me is the tripple top.
I will remove the patterns from this analysis, as they are objective.
We have still HH and LH in the daily but with a double top.
We don't have anything giving us a definite answer except each time it drops, its bought back up but without strong follow through.
RSI is dropping on the daily but it might be low enough to say buy in and if this happens while the price goes sideways, then we can see a new high.
Either we are going to see the bulls tire out, where the shorts just keep taking from the top, after the drop...sooner or later, this will drop the price. Volume is still good but it seems we are running out of steam and time.
Trade closed manually
Upon further study, as I'm interested in learning from the lessons of the past, I have gone back to the 2015/2016 bottom breakout and tried to align some of the key levels with ours today, I have put this chart based on a number of assumptions and similarities to then. Note, I am not fixed on any charts I present, only doing them in order to learn to read the charts by going back after the event. Also I'm not saying that the past has anything to do with the present as the dynamics are all different. Having said that, what else do we have to go on with. This is the fun and challenging bit. I will post this chart below in a new post outlining my assumptions and reasoning behind it. Note
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This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
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