Last weeks high: $85,306.40
Last weeks low: $76,622.98
Midpoint: $80,964.69
It's FOMC week again! Last week it was CPI week and inflation numbers came in under forecast signaling the Tradfi market sell-off and implementation of tariffs have at least had a positive impact on the consumer price index, a 2.8% print 0.1% lower than forecast. As this relates to FOMC the forecast is a non mover with interest rates staying at 4.5%.
However this does not necessarily mean that FOMC will be a non event in terms of the markets, volatility is always expected and with a suspected Trump insider opening a $380m 40x short position on BTC with a liquidation price of $86,600. I expect this price to be hit at some point this week purely because CT is targeting this account that has had a perfect 8/8 trade record to stop hunt it, I think FOMC could proved the volatility to do it.
The general structure of BTC as a whole despite this stop hunt narrative is bearish, after losing $91k support and a retest confirming the level as new resistance structurally it makes sense to revisit
73K to retest it as support. This would be horrible for the broader altcoin market that has suffered greatly so far this year but it would eliminate the need to fill the FVG in the future.
This week I am keeping a close eye on that stop hunt and FOMC as I feel that will dictate if we retest $91K or $73K.
Last weeks low: $76,622.98
Midpoint: $80,964.69
It's FOMC week again! Last week it was CPI week and inflation numbers came in under forecast signaling the Tradfi market sell-off and implementation of tariffs have at least had a positive impact on the consumer price index, a 2.8% print 0.1% lower than forecast. As this relates to FOMC the forecast is a non mover with interest rates staying at 4.5%.
However this does not necessarily mean that FOMC will be a non event in terms of the markets, volatility is always expected and with a suspected Trump insider opening a $380m 40x short position on BTC with a liquidation price of $86,600. I expect this price to be hit at some point this week purely because CT is targeting this account that has had a perfect 8/8 trade record to stop hunt it, I think FOMC could proved the volatility to do it.
The general structure of BTC as a whole despite this stop hunt narrative is bearish, after losing $91k support and a retest confirming the level as new resistance structurally it makes sense to revisit
73K to retest it as support. This would be horrible for the broader altcoin market that has suffered greatly so far this year but it would eliminate the need to fill the FVG in the future. This week I am keeping a close eye on that stop hunt and FOMC as I feel that will dictate if we retest $91K or $73K.
Note
Weekly high breakthrough after front running the midpoint retest. Very strong price action however the 4H 200 EMA is major resistance and currently stands at $87,800. A move above this with acceptance would be significant and a clears the way to a $91K retest. If price rejects off the 4H 200 EMA once again then the trend remains bearish and $73,000 is still on the cards.
Note
As the week draws to a close the trading range has tightened significantly compared to last week, this price action reminds me of the PA before crashing from $96K. A compression of the trading range usually leads to an expansion in either direction.The bullish target would still be $91K and bearish target would be $73k. I had hoped that BTC would not spent this much time at this level, the reluctance for buyers to come in at this level does lean towards another leg down IMO and the SFP on the weekly high does compound this feeling. I would feel much more bullish if the Weekly high was reclaimed but until then this is my feeling.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.