Bitcoin / TetherUSShort
🔥🔪 Pattern "Cap" | Gravitational waves
Updated
📣 Hello everyone!
I bring to your attention my long-term trading idea for Bitcoin. The idea is based on the theory of wave price fluctuations and physics. Price movement with variable acceleration generates gravitational waves, lines of force form extrema.
Also, in this trading idea, to make it easier to understand, for the first time I introduce a long-term bearish pattern, which I simply called “CAP”. You are unlikely to find anything like this in books, since this is my personal term. It vaguely resembles a round top, but the internal structure is completely different.
1️⃣ Technique:
🔹 Fibonacci ratios are not observed throughout the entire uptrend
🔹 With great difficulty, you can highlight a stretched impulse wave, neglecting all possible standards.
🔹 Alternation between waves 2-4 is not observed.
After conducting a deep analysis of the entire upward trend from November 2022 from the point of view of the classical VTE, I came to the conclusion that it has not been applicable to the BTC price chart for the last year and is not working as it should.
You can try to pull the classic Elliot onto this trend as much as you like, but you will always have much more alternative scenarios than you would like.
There is one simple logical explanation for this - the Bitcoin chart has evolved and moved away from classical technical analysis over the past year, in particular from the generally accepted Fibonacci ratios and the classical Elliott wave theory. Everything is done in order to confuse traders as much as possible and as few people as possible make money on this instrument, and on the cryptocurrency market as a whole.
👉 Conclusion: I believe that all the upward movement, the entire growth of BTC from November 2022 DOES NOT HAVE AN IMPULSE STRUCTURE, which means that this entire movement automatically becomes a correction, so that there is nothing inside. This is extremely important.
2️⃣ Fundamentally
I am a technician and in 95% of cases I consider the price chart first. Only some strong fundamental sudden events can unexpectedly hurt; everything else is already on the schedule.
So, making such a prediction in anticipation of the BTC halving in 2024, I thought about what could happen so that the Bitcoin price does not update its ATH and collapses to $10,000? - After all, after the start of a movement, the fundamental is magically located on the technical picture, and it can be anything that you didn’t even suspect before, and neither did I, when making a trading idea. I've been through this dozens, if not hundreds of times over the past 7 years in crypto.
In fact, the reason for the increase in the price of Bitcoin now after the adoption of spot BTC-ETFs is the cyclicality and halving of BTC. No matter how much they have distorted the history of BTC, what they have not drawn on price logarithmic charts, but the essence is the same - these are the expectations that this time everything will repeat exactly the same as it was in the past - growth after the BTC halving, at which everything will work with a 99% probability
The risks that something could go wrong, as it turns out, are much greater! - Briefly point by point:
🔹 The Fed may rush and start cutting interest rates too early, repeating its mistake of the 1970s
🔹 Risk of recession in Europe ➡️ Germany is already de facto in recession by the end of 2023.
🔹 Risks from Japan ➡️ Collapse of the carry trade in the Japanese Yen
🔹 Risks from China ➡️reduction in GDP growth ➡️escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will worsen the situation.
🔹 Russia-Ukraine conflict ➡️If US assistance is reduced, Washington’s reputation as a strong and reliable ally will suffer ➡️ The likelihood of new conflicts around the world and the escalation of existing ones will increase
🔹 Taiwan factor ➡️ new president is “undesirable” for China
- In the event of an armed conflict between China and Taiwan, the potential damage could be estimated at -10% of global GDP (with Covid19 -6%)
🔹 Potentially possible return of Donald Trump to the presidency ➡️ Dramatic change in US policy
__________________________________
⚠️ The information provided is more than enough for you to think and form your own opinion. Remember that your successful trading should not depend on long-term forecasts. The projection of price movement between key reference points on the chart is approximate and should not be exactly repeated in the future, unless one understands this.
Think for yourself, decide for yourself - good luck in making independent trading decisions and profits ✊
Goodbye!
I bring to your attention my long-term trading idea for Bitcoin. The idea is based on the theory of wave price fluctuations and physics. Price movement with variable acceleration generates gravitational waves, lines of force form extrema.
Also, in this trading idea, to make it easier to understand, for the first time I introduce a long-term bearish pattern, which I simply called “CAP”. You are unlikely to find anything like this in books, since this is my personal term. It vaguely resembles a round top, but the internal structure is completely different.
1️⃣ Technique:
🔹 Fibonacci ratios are not observed throughout the entire uptrend
🔹 With great difficulty, you can highlight a stretched impulse wave, neglecting all possible standards.
🔹 Alternation between waves 2-4 is not observed.
After conducting a deep analysis of the entire upward trend from November 2022 from the point of view of the classical VTE, I came to the conclusion that it has not been applicable to the BTC price chart for the last year and is not working as it should.
You can try to pull the classic Elliot onto this trend as much as you like, but you will always have much more alternative scenarios than you would like.
There is one simple logical explanation for this - the Bitcoin chart has evolved and moved away from classical technical analysis over the past year, in particular from the generally accepted Fibonacci ratios and the classical Elliott wave theory. Everything is done in order to confuse traders as much as possible and as few people as possible make money on this instrument, and on the cryptocurrency market as a whole.
👉 Conclusion: I believe that all the upward movement, the entire growth of BTC from November 2022 DOES NOT HAVE AN IMPULSE STRUCTURE, which means that this entire movement automatically becomes a correction, so that there is nothing inside. This is extremely important.
2️⃣ Fundamentally
I am a technician and in 95% of cases I consider the price chart first. Only some strong fundamental sudden events can unexpectedly hurt; everything else is already on the schedule.
So, making such a prediction in anticipation of the BTC halving in 2024, I thought about what could happen so that the Bitcoin price does not update its ATH and collapses to $10,000? - After all, after the start of a movement, the fundamental is magically located on the technical picture, and it can be anything that you didn’t even suspect before, and neither did I, when making a trading idea. I've been through this dozens, if not hundreds of times over the past 7 years in crypto.
In fact, the reason for the increase in the price of Bitcoin now after the adoption of spot BTC-ETFs is the cyclicality and halving of BTC. No matter how much they have distorted the history of BTC, what they have not drawn on price logarithmic charts, but the essence is the same - these are the expectations that this time everything will repeat exactly the same as it was in the past - growth after the BTC halving, at which everything will work with a 99% probability
The risks that something could go wrong, as it turns out, are much greater! - Briefly point by point:
🔹 The Fed may rush and start cutting interest rates too early, repeating its mistake of the 1970s
🔹 Risk of recession in Europe ➡️ Germany is already de facto in recession by the end of 2023.
🔹 Risks from Japan ➡️ Collapse of the carry trade in the Japanese Yen
🔹 Risks from China ➡️reduction in GDP growth ➡️escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will worsen the situation.
🔹 Russia-Ukraine conflict ➡️If US assistance is reduced, Washington’s reputation as a strong and reliable ally will suffer ➡️ The likelihood of new conflicts around the world and the escalation of existing ones will increase
🔹 Taiwan factor ➡️ new president is “undesirable” for China
- In the event of an armed conflict between China and Taiwan, the potential damage could be estimated at -10% of global GDP (with Covid19 -6%)
🔹 Potentially possible return of Donald Trump to the presidency ➡️ Dramatic change in US policy
__________________________________
⚠️ The information provided is more than enough for you to think and form your own opinion. Remember that your successful trading should not depend on long-term forecasts. The projection of price movement between key reference points on the chart is approximate and should not be exactly repeated in the future, unless one understands this.
Think for yourself, decide for yourself - good luck in making independent trading decisions and profits ✊
Goodbye!
Note
Hello everyone! I expect the local uptrend to reverse from the “magic” Fib 0.618. But as practice shows, the reversal most often occurs between 0.618-0.786.On my chart this is the zone 44,694 - $46,526 - If it doesn’t reverse here, then the price will test the highs of January and we will see $50,000-$52,000, which will not affect my long-term forecast.
Note
Hello everybody!I believe that the short-term growth will most likely continue and Bitcoin will update its January high at $48,969.
Current price $48,377 - target $50,000 - $52,000. You need to watch further!
Note
📣 Hello everyone!In the previous update, the forecast was as follows: Short-term growth will most likely continue and the price of Bitcoin will update its January high at $48,969. Current price $48,377 - target $50,000 - $52,000.
____________
On Thursday, February 15, Bitcoin set a local high at $52,816 - It is not surprising that Bitcoin met resistance near the extremum curve in the zone of $51,000 - $52,000 and now a sideways consolidation is forming at 4h, exit from which is expected this week .
There will be an update in the next post.
Note
📣 Hello everyone!I believe it will be difficult for the bulls to move forward further without a proper correction from current levels below $50,000. The probability of a false breakout is increasing; I believe that counter-trend strategies will in the near future be able to bring greater profit than trend ones.
⚠️ In any case, whatever scenario Bitcoin chooses now, according to this trading idea of mine, the bullish rally potential should be capped at $61,724 (3% margin of error)
Note
Hello everyone!In the last update, the forecast was as follows: "whatever scenario Bitcoin chooses now, according to this trading idea of mine, the potential for a bullish rally should be limited at $ 61,724 (3% margin of error)"
The reality is that the price of Bitcoin is rising higher and stronger than I had previously assumed. From $52,000 to $63,000, I was in a long position on BTC, after which I remain out of the market on this instrument. I prefer to wait and take a break now until I see good reasons to continue the long-term growth of the BTC price. All that I am currently observing from the masses is FOMO and the "New Bitcoin Paradigm" after the adoption of ETFs, but as my long-term experience suggests, this happens closer to the top of the bull market than at its beginning or middle.
Yes, I didn't earn anything by growing above $63,000, but I didn't lose anything either. I still believe that in the not so distant future, countertrend strategies will be able to bring more profit than trend ones. Altcoins will also be more profitable than Bitcoin.
________________
De jure, this trading idea can be considered invalid, since the margin of error of 3% has been exceeded and the level of disability for this trading idea has been broken, namely $67,525
________________
De facto, I will not close it yet today, since for the third week in a row the trend has been slowing down and at this point in time I see the formation of a reversal pattern on BTC. If this is true, then the new ATH may not be broken for 2-3 years!
________________
I expect that at least a medium-term peak will be formed within one month from today's update, otherwise THIS TRADING IDEA WILL LOSE ITS MEANING AND WILL BE CLOSED.
May prudence be with you - Observe RM and, as always, I wish you good luck in making independent trading decisions!
Goodbye!
Note
📣 Hello everyone!In the last update, the forecast was as follows: "I expect that at least a medium-term peak will be formed within one month from today's update, otherwise THIS TRADING IDEA WILL LOSE ITS MEANING AND WILL BE CLOSED"
_______________
A little over a month has passed and to date we have not seen any progress in the movement of the Bitcoin price. The assumption about the formation of the peak is currently impossible to confirm or deny - it will take even more time.
⚡️ The confirmation of the top will be a confident breakdown of support in the area of 60 000$. Within the framework of this trading idea, the historical level of 61 724$ is indicated, and I will refer to it further - a confident breakdown down this level in April-May will confirm the validity of this trading idea.
❌ If the price exceeds the level of 73 777$ - this trading idea will be considered invalid and will be closed - I will be forced to significantly reconsider my long-term views regarding Bitcoin.
⚠️ May prudence be with you - Observe RM and, as always, I wish you good luck in making independent trading decisions!
Goodbye!
Note
Hello everyone!In the last update, the forecast was as follows: " Confirmation of the top will be a confident breakdown of support in the area of $ 60,000. Within the framework of this trading idea, the historical level of $ 61,724 is indicated, and I will refer to it further - a confident breakdown down this level in April-May will confirm the validity of this trading idea."
_______________
Last week was the first to close below the previously indicated key level of $61,724. The top is formed by 65% - the next important significant step will be a bearish breakout of the round psychological level of $ 60,000, this movement should be the largest and fastest since March 2024.
If the price exceeds the level of $ 73,777 by even one tick - this trading idea will be considered invalid and will be closed - I will be forced to significantly reconsider my long-term views regarding Bitcoin.
May prudence be with you - Observe RM and, as always, I wish you good luck in making independent trading decisions!
Goodbye!
Note
Hello everyone!In the last update, the forecast was as follows: "The top is formed by 65% - the next important significant step will be a bearish breakthrough of the round psychological level of $ 60,000, this movement should be the largest and fastest since March 2024."
_______________
Confirmation in the form of a confident bearish break below $ 60,000 was not received! Now the third test of the extreme curve is the price is close to the level of disability of $ 73,777.
In my understanding, a strong medium-term trend should start from here. Further major movement will be determined by small frames in the near future, it is necessary to proceed to the point of entry into the market. As soon as a short/long setup is formed, I will speculatively enter either side again.
If the price exceeds the level of $ 73,777 by even one tick - this trading idea will be considered invalid and will be closed - I will be forced to significantly reconsider my long-term views regarding Bitcoin.
May prudence be with you - Observe RM and, as always, I wish you good luck in making independent trading decisions!
Goodbye!
Order cancelled
📣 Hello everyone!Two weeks have already passed since the last update, this time was enough for the price to move into a confident downward trend, but this did not happen.
When there is a price-time projection, and we do not see the desired condition, we should expect the start of consolidation. Bitcoin will enter the summer months and I believe that the broad flat zone of $56,000 - $74,000 will be the final choice for this time.
_______________
Since the price fall has not started, the upper boundary model has already been washed out sideways, and there is no point in pursuing this trading idea further and it is closed.
See you in new trading ideas! Goodbye!
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