Bitcoin from a TA perspective using Elliot Wave
Updated
Hello. I have been trading using Elliot Wave for about 5 years and i have been pretty successful. Ofc there is more to the market than counting waves, there are a lot of things that affect the price and TA should only be used as a tool to reduce risk and look at probabilities. Mr Market (another name for the market) does whatever he wants and there is no way to predict how something will go, TA will just help you to make a qualified guess on which way the market is heading, but at the end of the day Mr Market does whatever he wants and all you can do is adapt and make sure you dont get caught with your pants down. But lets get down to business!
As we look at this Elliot wave structure one can see that the symmetry is really pleasing to look at. We have a clear ABC down in late feb that bottoms out the wave 4. Followed by what looks like a new impulse wave (1) where we just hit the bottom of wave 2 the 25th of march and it bounced just above the so called "golden zone" near the 0.618. So what does this mean? And where are we heading? As i said before, TA should be used to reduce risk and combined with other tools one can make a pretty good qualified guess of where the market is heading. You simply trade the "most likely scenario" and make sure you have a backup plan in case Mr Market decides to go with the unlikely scenario.
In this case the most likely scenario is that we are currently in a wave 3 towards 85-88k$ (2.236-2.382 fib ext of wave 1) long term and one could expect a break of the ATH at the beginning of april. If the wave count is correct and we are currently entering a wave 3, ALT dominance will likely follow and one can expect an increase of ALT dominance by around 10%. So one should position them self after this fact and not having tunnel vision on BTC.
Short term we are probably looking at bit of retracement and then a break of the ATH in late march/start of april. This could be a good time to stack up on alts and put in some stop losses in case Mr Market doesn't agree with this wave count.
In retro perspective (excluding TA) there are a lot of bullish news regarding BTC and the crypto market in general. We have institutional investors pouring more money than ever into Bitcoin, we have companies like Tesla investing billion of dollars and more adaption than ever with both VISA and Mastercard bringing crypto into its network. The world adaption of crypto is happening at a tremendous pace right now and this is just the start.
And think about this, do you think all the institutions and company's who bought bitcoin around the 50k range, bought at the top? They have countless technical analysts with many years of experience at their disposal and a bunch other financial advisers. Would they really advice the company/institution to buy BTC near the ATH? There is about a 0% chance of that being the case.
So with all this in mind im very bullish on Bitcoin long term but as always, i do manage my risk (as should you!) according to how the market moves. As i said before, Mr Market does whatever he wants all you can do is adapt and dont fall for FOMO or Panic Sell.
Kind regards!
As we look at this Elliot wave structure one can see that the symmetry is really pleasing to look at. We have a clear ABC down in late feb that bottoms out the wave 4. Followed by what looks like a new impulse wave (1) where we just hit the bottom of wave 2 the 25th of march and it bounced just above the so called "golden zone" near the 0.618. So what does this mean? And where are we heading? As i said before, TA should be used to reduce risk and combined with other tools one can make a pretty good qualified guess of where the market is heading. You simply trade the "most likely scenario" and make sure you have a backup plan in case Mr Market decides to go with the unlikely scenario.
In this case the most likely scenario is that we are currently in a wave 3 towards 85-88k$ (2.236-2.382 fib ext of wave 1) long term and one could expect a break of the ATH at the beginning of april. If the wave count is correct and we are currently entering a wave 3, ALT dominance will likely follow and one can expect an increase of ALT dominance by around 10%. So one should position them self after this fact and not having tunnel vision on BTC.
Short term we are probably looking at bit of retracement and then a break of the ATH in late march/start of april. This could be a good time to stack up on alts and put in some stop losses in case Mr Market doesn't agree with this wave count.
In retro perspective (excluding TA) there are a lot of bullish news regarding BTC and the crypto market in general. We have institutional investors pouring more money than ever into Bitcoin, we have companies like Tesla investing billion of dollars and more adaption than ever with both VISA and Mastercard bringing crypto into its network. The world adaption of crypto is happening at a tremendous pace right now and this is just the start.
And think about this, do you think all the institutions and company's who bought bitcoin around the 50k range, bought at the top? They have countless technical analysts with many years of experience at their disposal and a bunch other financial advisers. Would they really advice the company/institution to buy BTC near the ATH? There is about a 0% chance of that being the case.
So with all this in mind im very bullish on Bitcoin long term but as always, i do manage my risk (as should you!) according to how the market moves. As i said before, Mr Market does whatever he wants all you can do is adapt and dont fall for FOMO or Panic Sell.
Kind regards!
Note
Part 2 
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