Could this be the most logical drawing ever made for #Bitcoin ?
#Bitcoin 1W chart;
As followers may remember, we have interpreted the Bitcoin chart from many different perspectives before, so let's look for different meanings from a different perspective;
The first thing I would like to draw your attention to is the RSI signal that formed at the top of 2021 before falling. These signals are valuable for charts because they foretell that the market can't move any further in that direction.
After the signal at the first top of 2021, there was a deep drop of around -50%. Fibonacci shows us here that after completing its decline in value between 0.5 and 0.618 (golden ratio value), it started to rise again. In fact, the bear cycle started after the same mismatch on the RSI side for the second time.
So we had 2 serious rises in the bull cycle in 2021.
Now... What do we see after the first drop in 2021?
We see that the 50 EMA (50-day moving average) yellow line was broken with a hard candle in the first place, then there were closures above and below this zone for 10 weeks, and then it experienced its second peak rise.
Now let's look at the current cycle, the 2nd Fibonacci values.
Here again, we can see signals on the pre-decline RSI, but they are more pronounced on the daily chart. With Bitcoin's decline, we see that it broke the 50 EMA with a hard candle pin, as it did in the previous cycle. Under normal circumstances, we should statistically expect it to rise after 10 weekly candles in total, as it did the previous time.
However, there is an important point here.
The Fed Rate Decision Meeting to be held on 18.09.2024, which I indicated with a yellow vertical dash line (it appears as 16.09 because the chart is weekly)
As I stated in my previous articles, I expect the first interest rate cut to be made on this date.
Accordingly, after the 50 EMA is broken, we have a total of 7 weeks until the meeting date. Accordingly, if Bitcoin will come back to the Fibonacci golden ratio range as in the previous cycle, then we should expect a sharp decline from the current level because time is running out.
I would like to add a footnote here; the previous Fibonacci took support from 0.618 (golden ratio) and created a balance in that region. In today's decline, it took this support at 0.5. Therefore, it may not want to see the 0.618 level. 0.5 levels point to around 48k.
If you remember, in another previous Bitcoin chart I drew a Bullish harmonic pattern starting from around
48K, you sometimes ask me if my bearish expectation is still valid. How can I be bullish when all the different perspectives I have drawn and tried to show you are all bearish.
Let's come to our 3rd Fibonacci levels.
I think that the highest level for #Btc in this cycle could be a level between 102k and 122k and I show you the reasons why I think so on the technical chart.
You will never see any imaginary and emotionally driven odds, rockets, flaming tweets from me. I think we will leave this market on time thanks to the bearish signals that Bitcoin will show when it reaches its peak in this cycle.
If you have read this far, you can support me by liking, commenting and sharing. Love ✨
As followers may remember, we have interpreted the Bitcoin chart from many different perspectives before, so let's look for different meanings from a different perspective;
The first thing I would like to draw your attention to is the RSI signal that formed at the top of 2021 before falling. These signals are valuable for charts because they foretell that the market can't move any further in that direction.
After the signal at the first top of 2021, there was a deep drop of around -50%. Fibonacci shows us here that after completing its decline in value between 0.5 and 0.618 (golden ratio value), it started to rise again. In fact, the bear cycle started after the same mismatch on the RSI side for the second time.
So we had 2 serious rises in the bull cycle in 2021.
Now... What do we see after the first drop in 2021?
We see that the 50 EMA (50-day moving average) yellow line was broken with a hard candle in the first place, then there were closures above and below this zone for 10 weeks, and then it experienced its second peak rise.
Now let's look at the current cycle, the 2nd Fibonacci values.
Here again, we can see signals on the pre-decline RSI, but they are more pronounced on the daily chart. With Bitcoin's decline, we see that it broke the 50 EMA with a hard candle pin, as it did in the previous cycle. Under normal circumstances, we should statistically expect it to rise after 10 weekly candles in total, as it did the previous time.
However, there is an important point here.
The Fed Rate Decision Meeting to be held on 18.09.2024, which I indicated with a yellow vertical dash line (it appears as 16.09 because the chart is weekly)
As I stated in my previous articles, I expect the first interest rate cut to be made on this date.
Accordingly, after the 50 EMA is broken, we have a total of 7 weeks until the meeting date. Accordingly, if Bitcoin will come back to the Fibonacci golden ratio range as in the previous cycle, then we should expect a sharp decline from the current level because time is running out.
I would like to add a footnote here; the previous Fibonacci took support from 0.618 (golden ratio) and created a balance in that region. In today's decline, it took this support at 0.5. Therefore, it may not want to see the 0.618 level. 0.5 levels point to around 48k.
If you remember, in another previous Bitcoin chart I drew a Bullish harmonic pattern starting from around
48K, you sometimes ask me if my bearish expectation is still valid. How can I be bullish when all the different perspectives I have drawn and tried to show you are all bearish.Let's come to our 3rd Fibonacci levels.
I think that the highest level for #Btc in this cycle could be a level between 102k and 122k and I show you the reasons why I think so on the technical chart.
You will never see any imaginary and emotionally driven odds, rockets, flaming tweets from me. I think we will leave this market on time thanks to the bearish signals that Bitcoin will show when it reaches its peak in this cycle.
If you have read this far, you can support me by liking, commenting and sharing. Love ✨
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.