28/04/25 Weekly Outlook

114
Last weeks high: $95,778.66
Last weeks low: $84,688.21
Midpoint: $90,233.44

Last week Bitcoin ETFs recorded their second highest net inflows ever, $3.06B between April 21st-25th. The result of this buyside volume is evident on the chart as BTC breaks up into the mid $90k's, and in doing so is now back at the level in which BTC fell from originally to hit $74,500. As a result it is fair to say this area will be a big resistance level, but where is new support after this rally?

The aggressive nature of last weeks move up has left a number of areas of imbalance that the market does tend to revisit. Just below midpoint we have the $89,000-$90,000 area just below a key S/R level at $91,000. Dipping below this area into the 88K's briefly to sweep the demand and reclaiming $91,000 would be ideal for the bulls and very healthy for the next rally.

A less appealing area of imbalance for the bulls would be towards weekly low of $85,300-$86,300, that would be very painful for anyone longing a retest of the $91,000 area and from a HTF perspective would be a lower high and a SFP of the range midpoint, both bearish signals. The 4H 200 EMA is currently around that area at $87,000 too which would mean losing the level after just climbing back above it.

This week I'm looking at that first imbalance area to be a level of support for the next leg up, that's the ideal bullish scenario in my mind. A move below midpoint with acceptance is a red flag on this move and would start to look like a lower high bearish continuation.

Good luck this week!

Note
Very tight range so far this week, last time we saw this BTC broke up above the weekly high.

Compression often leads to an impulse move, a loss of 0.75 line would be very bearish in the short term.
Note
Successful retest of the 0.75 line, this is looking very similar of a setup to week commencing 14th April, in that week we moved sideways within the top quarter the whole week with a retest of 0.75 line, as soon as the weekly candle closed there was an impulse move to the upside.

Could we see the same pattern this time?
Note
There's the break above the weekly high and into major HTF resistance. Should be an interesting end to the week...

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