Most Relevant Timeframe for a Trade
• Short-term swing trades (a few days):
• The 2H and 4H timeframes are showing early signs of a potential relief rally.
• Indicators such as Mason’s Satisfaction surpassing its SMA and RSI fluctuating around 50–57 suggest a possible short-term rebound.
• Mid-term swing trades (1–2 weeks):
• The 12H and 1D timeframes indicate potential exhaustion of selling pressure, as seen in Investor Satisfaction values approaching 0.1 (a historically significant buy signal zone).
• However, the MTFTI average remains bearish, suggesting that the overall market trend is still fragile and requires confirmation.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
• Major support zones:
• 77K–79K: Aligned with LoAVWAP across multiple timeframes (1D, 12H) and near the lower Bollinger Band.
• 75K–76K: A critical support area, corresponding to significant technical and psychological levels.
• Major resistance zones:
• ~84K–85K: An important level to watch for a potential gap fill and technical reaction.
• ~88K–89K: Significant resistance level seen in HiAVWAP from the 6H timeframe.
• 95K–96K: Strong resistance level from the 1D and 12H timeframes.
Potential Scenarios and Strategy
Bullish Scenario (Short to Mid-Term Rebound)
• A breakout above 84K–85K would confirm a short-term recovery.
• Target price range: 88K (HiAVWAP in 6H and 4H), followed by 95K–96K if momentum continues.
• Several indicators, including RSI Bollinger Bands and Mason’s Satisfaction, are signaling a potential short-term push.
Bearish Scenario (Further Decline)
• A break below 77K (LoAVWAP on the 1D chart) would likely accelerate downward movement, with a target towards 75K–76K or even lower.
• The overall MTFTI average remains bearish, suggesting that unless significant buying pressure emerges, any bounce could be temporary before further downside.
Trading Plan and Risk Management
• Partial entries (DCA) around 75K–78K for medium/long-term positioning, as several indicators suggest extreme oversold conditions.
• Stop-loss below 75K to manage risk in case of extended bearish momentum.
• Profit-taking near 84K–85K, followed by additional scaling out near 88K, given the technical confluence in those regions.
Final Thoughts
• Technical indicators across different timeframes suggest a potential relief rally, but the overall trend remains cautious.
• The 2H and 4H timeframes provide the first signs of recovery, while the 1D and 12H charts show broader selling exhaustion that could lead to a mid-term stabilization.
• Support zones between 75K–78K remain key for buying interest, while resistance at 84K–85K and 88K–96K will determine whether BTC can sustain a stronger uptrend.
• A tactical approach combining short-term trades and disciplined risk management is essential in the current market environment.
• Short-term swing trades (a few days):
• The 2H and 4H timeframes are showing early signs of a potential relief rally.
• Indicators such as Mason’s Satisfaction surpassing its SMA and RSI fluctuating around 50–57 suggest a possible short-term rebound.
• Mid-term swing trades (1–2 weeks):
• The 12H and 1D timeframes indicate potential exhaustion of selling pressure, as seen in Investor Satisfaction values approaching 0.1 (a historically significant buy signal zone).
• However, the MTFTI average remains bearish, suggesting that the overall market trend is still fragile and requires confirmation.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
• Major support zones:
• 77K–79K: Aligned with LoAVWAP across multiple timeframes (1D, 12H) and near the lower Bollinger Band.
• 75K–76K: A critical support area, corresponding to significant technical and psychological levels.
• Major resistance zones:
• ~84K–85K: An important level to watch for a potential gap fill and technical reaction.
• ~88K–89K: Significant resistance level seen in HiAVWAP from the 6H timeframe.
• 95K–96K: Strong resistance level from the 1D and 12H timeframes.
Potential Scenarios and Strategy
Bullish Scenario (Short to Mid-Term Rebound)
• A breakout above 84K–85K would confirm a short-term recovery.
• Target price range: 88K (HiAVWAP in 6H and 4H), followed by 95K–96K if momentum continues.
• Several indicators, including RSI Bollinger Bands and Mason’s Satisfaction, are signaling a potential short-term push.
Bearish Scenario (Further Decline)
• A break below 77K (LoAVWAP on the 1D chart) would likely accelerate downward movement, with a target towards 75K–76K or even lower.
• The overall MTFTI average remains bearish, suggesting that unless significant buying pressure emerges, any bounce could be temporary before further downside.
Trading Plan and Risk Management
• Partial entries (DCA) around 75K–78K for medium/long-term positioning, as several indicators suggest extreme oversold conditions.
• Stop-loss below 75K to manage risk in case of extended bearish momentum.
• Profit-taking near 84K–85K, followed by additional scaling out near 88K, given the technical confluence in those regions.
Final Thoughts
• Technical indicators across different timeframes suggest a potential relief rally, but the overall trend remains cautious.
• The 2H and 4H timeframes provide the first signs of recovery, while the 1D and 12H charts show broader selling exhaustion that could lead to a mid-term stabilization.
• Support zones between 75K–78K remain key for buying interest, while resistance at 84K–85K and 88K–96K will determine whether BTC can sustain a stronger uptrend.
• A tactical approach combining short-term trades and disciplined risk management is essential in the current market environment.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.