New BTC analysis - Lower highs and lower lows, what is next?
So, bulls recently missed a decent chance to gain control over the market by holding the 61k level but failed miserably. Now just want to put things into perspective, keep in mind, this analysis is NOT backed by usual TA rules, so this is rather a out-of-the-box approach on what is going on.
As you can see I tried to highlight the obvious series of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. The lines are curved which is by no means the standard approach but it makes sense looking at the overall market structure. So one could assume we are in a mid-term downtrend, given BTC has been trading like this for the last 6 months already.
One thing is certain: This structure is going to end at some point. The question now is, what are we going to see first: A lower low or a higher high to finally break out of this downtrend?
Few days ago I was convinced we are going to see a push towards ~68k but now things have changed drastically. I wouldn't even say it's 50/50 as I'm slowly starting to lose hope but to give you some levels I think we need to see a strong break of 65-66k to become bullish again. However, if BTC decides to go for another lower low it might go as low as 46k, probably shaking out >80% of leveraged traders.
Unfortunately this is how the market works and always has. Forcing people out of their positions by liquidating them, run their stops and the like. Another problem is, we have seen several agressive shakeouts past few weeks, so who is actually left to shook out? You'd be surprised how overleveraged this whole market is, so there is still room for another aggressive flush, probably 15-20% within a day.
IF this happens, we REALLY want to see a quick recovery and not print a bearish flag below ~50k for another 2-3 weeks.
As you can tell, I am leaning towards the lower low scenario but there is still a chance to prevent this from happening but the chances are slim, maybe 30%, but that's just a vague guess.
So basically, if you are a trader you should sit on your hands at this point. Alts are down brutally as we speak, so if you miss let's say 20-30% from the bottom that's totally acceptable.
For BTC if you are a bull either wait for the lower low or wait for a CLEAR break of current market structure. Keep in mind there are technically no limits to the upside, so no need to time the exact bottom, which is pretty much gambling anyway.
Will update if we have a clearer picture. I know this analysis is pretty vague but I'm not trying to create any false hopes for the clout. In the end, always do your own research and/or stay out of the market if there's uncertainty like now.
Stay safe!
As you can see I tried to highlight the obvious series of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. The lines are curved which is by no means the standard approach but it makes sense looking at the overall market structure. So one could assume we are in a mid-term downtrend, given BTC has been trading like this for the last 6 months already.
One thing is certain: This structure is going to end at some point. The question now is, what are we going to see first: A lower low or a higher high to finally break out of this downtrend?
Few days ago I was convinced we are going to see a push towards ~68k but now things have changed drastically. I wouldn't even say it's 50/50 as I'm slowly starting to lose hope but to give you some levels I think we need to see a strong break of 65-66k to become bullish again. However, if BTC decides to go for another lower low it might go as low as 46k, probably shaking out >80% of leveraged traders.
Unfortunately this is how the market works and always has. Forcing people out of their positions by liquidating them, run their stops and the like. Another problem is, we have seen several agressive shakeouts past few weeks, so who is actually left to shook out? You'd be surprised how overleveraged this whole market is, so there is still room for another aggressive flush, probably 15-20% within a day.
IF this happens, we REALLY want to see a quick recovery and not print a bearish flag below ~50k for another 2-3 weeks.
As you can tell, I am leaning towards the lower low scenario but there is still a chance to prevent this from happening but the chances are slim, maybe 30%, but that's just a vague guess.
So basically, if you are a trader you should sit on your hands at this point. Alts are down brutally as we speak, so if you miss let's say 20-30% from the bottom that's totally acceptable.
For BTC if you are a bull either wait for the lower low or wait for a CLEAR break of current market structure. Keep in mind there are technically no limits to the upside, so no need to time the exact bottom, which is pretty much gambling anyway.
Will update if we have a clearer picture. I know this analysis is pretty vague but I'm not trying to create any false hopes for the clout. In the end, always do your own research and/or stay out of the market if there's uncertainty like now.
Stay safe!
Note
Think it's happening already. If 56k gets taken out it could could become really nasty.
I didn't mention a possible target for this dump but it gould go as low as 45-46k.
Note
So, looks like we get our first daily close below 56k, still some hours left, but not looking good at all.
There is a SLIGHT chance that 54k could hold, but doubt it. It's almost weekend though so it might not drop below 50k straight away. However, if we see a weekly close below 54k would be a matter of time until we see 46-48k
Note
Looks like it wants to go lower. Much lower probably. So my gut-feeling seeing another lower low seemed to be right. Beforementioned levels are still valid, so 46k is on the cards now. 
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