BTC, 3-5 May
Updated
Let's start with the weekly and daily charts:
As we can see, the daily chart is MRI warning and May 4 will be MRI Top. This will most likely be followed by a 1-4 candle correction.
On the hourly chart (that is the first chart above) we see a triangle breakout. It is later than I estimated, but in the process of the pattern development it became clear that the bulls do not have enough strength. And therefore BTC needs one more touch down. It happened. The bears were not strong enough, so the triangle was broken through to the upside.
The price went to 57,800 and is trying to turn it into a support zone (I wrote all this yesterday).
What scenarios I assume (the probability of scenarios is low - no one knows what the market will do).
The bullish scenario: a moderate rise on March 3, an exit above 59,500 and a fix behind that price, and a rise to the 63k area on May 4. A big green candle is possible at the moment of the cross on the 4-hour MACD.
Then there will be a correction into the 59,500 area from May 5.
Less desirable scenario: consolidation around 59,500, fall to support areas of 56,350, 55k.
Have a good trades!
Disclamer: I'm sharing my thoughts and not giving financial advice. All decisions are your own and you are responsible for them.
Have a plan for the situation if something doesn't go your way.
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As we can see, the daily chart is MRI warning and May 4 will be MRI Top. This will most likely be followed by a 1-4 candle correction.
On the hourly chart (that is the first chart above) we see a triangle breakout. It is later than I estimated, but in the process of the pattern development it became clear that the bulls do not have enough strength. And therefore BTC needs one more touch down. It happened. The bears were not strong enough, so the triangle was broken through to the upside.
The price went to 57,800 and is trying to turn it into a support zone (I wrote all this yesterday).
What scenarios I assume (the probability of scenarios is low - no one knows what the market will do).
The bullish scenario: a moderate rise on March 3, an exit above 59,500 and a fix behind that price, and a rise to the 63k area on May 4. A big green candle is possible at the moment of the cross on the 4-hour MACD.
Then there will be a correction into the 59,500 area from May 5.
Less desirable scenario: consolidation around 59,500, fall to support areas of 56,350, 55k.
Have a good trades!
Disclamer: I'm sharing my thoughts and not giving financial advice. All decisions are your own and you are responsible for them.
Have a plan for the situation if something doesn't go your way.
------------------------------------------------------------------
>>> press "like" for ideas updates
>>> follow me for more ideas
Note
1 hr with levels:
I do not exclude the retest of 55k. And it will show what to expect next.
For the sma7 on the weekly chart, check out Tone Vays's latest video on YouTube. That's a very strong point.
youtube.com/watch?v=YhoN93prbGg
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The retest came too soon. So it's not a retest.I meant to write this about 15 minutes ago. By the time the opportunity arose, it had already become obvious.
Where does bitcoin fall? I think it's going toward 47. It'll be good if it reverses just above 47.
Below 47 there is support at 43.
Will it fall to 47 or will it turn before 47? I don't know yet. I think it will.
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Right now the chart looks not bad. But most likely there will be a retest. It all depends on how it goes.
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The daily candle closed below the desired boundary. I assume a retest of the sing low. If the price goes below 52,330, the fall will continue.
However, the bears are getting weaker. The distance between the lower points is decreasing, the magnitude of the bullish moves is increasing.
There is a chance that the retest will fail and growth will begin. For now, I would be cautious.
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It's usually a bearish signal. But the bears haven't made it yet.
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Observation. Perhaps another touch at the bottom of the triangle. The main thing is not to have a break down. But I do not believe in it. False break down is possible. The bears seem to have weakened. But I am not sure about the strength of the bulls yet.
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bitcoin is in the critical zone. There is a small hope that bitcoin makes a falling wedge on the 1h chart, but a break-down of the 47k level is an invitation for a retest to the 46k level.
There are several technical scenarios of falling into the 43-40k zone.
I did not believe in ihem 10 hours ago. Three hours ago I changed my mind.
Let's see if bitcoin manages to get out from the down-trend line.
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The market is undecided.
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daily chart, bearish
But in 2 days we may see MRI BUY on daily chart
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This explains the bounce.
But it doesn't mean anything :) Waiting for tomorrow's MRI buy
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It's a very difficult situation. From the MRI point of view you have to buy. Now or closer to 40, I wouldn't worry too much and buy in installments.
But what will happen then?
The market is scared. The fear index is very high.
Willie Wu writes about several months of market recovery.
Onchain analysts write about a large influx of bitcoins to exchanges and a small number of Stablecoins.
My guess is that pushing the price below 40k could trigger a wave of stop losses. If the price doesn't fall below 40k, the market will calm down.
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1 hr btc Binance: MRI Buy could appear in 2 hours. BTC is on the way to retest 42k, a few minutes ago the low was lower than the last swing low (42,500). This is probably the best scenario to buy if you trust on MRI.
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nope, no mri buy on 1hr chart
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just another idea
And there's the resistance zone MRI Daily and without the MRI indicator you can see the resistance in this area.
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The price is above the daily 200sma, which is not bad. But everything else is bad. If today's scenario had occurred yesterday, on the MRI Buy, I would have been more optimistic.
I have not yet developed a plan of further action for myself. The only thing I did - yesterday I deleted all buy orders, because I have no plan for the situation.
Perhaps the time of short trades is coming.
65k was definitely not a bubble. Probably Musk and altcoins. Hopefully the strength of Musk's tweets has gone down.
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As I understand the situation now:
- bitcoin price is above sma200
- There will be a retest of 42,800 and 38,550. More likely a retest of 38,550 first. And then it will become clear. If bitcoin goes above 42,800 and makes it into support, there will be a weak hope for recovery.
On the chart, I marked the historical support levels in orange.
I had one rule for shitcoins:
- if trading BCH, only short
Now I have a second one:
- if trading Doge, only short
The reasons are the same - the personalities behind these coins were trying to harm bitcoin. And that is what the whole ecosystem is built on. If two weeks ago I said about Doge that it was a stupid game, but money is money. Now it is a coin that is backed by a person who tried to harm the ecosystem.
Don't support these coins with long positions, we need to teach these people a lesson.
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Oh, shit!I wanted to write about 29k, but I thought it was too far away :)
Now the prediction of the trader I know about 17k doesn't seem so unrealistic. Bitcoin is down more than 10k today! Down 25%.
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Which line will be broken first? Right now the price is falling, but if the close of retest candle will be above 36,111, there will be an upward move and possibly a breakout of the upper boundary.
However, I don't believe it's over. I think we will still live in 30-35k and then we will see if the price goes up or down.
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It is high time to write a new post, but there is no time - I have a lot of important events in my life, so I analyze charts when I have time and have not yet developed a clear plan for myself. I assume the first purchase I will make below 30k. But I am only guessing and do not know, whether I will divide my deposit into 3 or 5 parts.
Okay, to the chart. The lower boundary is broken, then it was (is) a retest of the upper boundary, which has failed so far. The next 1-3 candles will show what to expect next.
1 The bullish scenario is a retest of the upper boundary with a breakout.
2 Undecided - price goes down, but reverses above the last low. Triangle formation begins.
3 Bearish scenario - the price goes below 34,850
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it's really hard. The hourly chart is bullish.
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also possible
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