Short

Bitcoin will plummet to 23k-28k

Updated

Bitcoin has struggled in recent days. The rest of the market may be delinking itself from Bitcoin, but in an early economy, I think we're seeing a huge 'warning zone' much like we did last year before the crypto crash. Fib Circles and a series of supports based on common price floors and Bollinger Band/EMA critical points. Stoch K and EMA are both going southward too. After plummeting to 26k (still over 250% gain in one year) I believe Bitcoin will stabilize in a 34k-40k range for a while. A different analysis put ETH at it's mythical 9k high in Nov '22, so read into that as you will. Maybe Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin marketcap this year ... ? *shrug*

Classic fib circle playing out in double drop outer ring.

Note

Our global economic system is teetering on a cliff. Inflation of the more stable currency, global supply chain bottlenecks. In general, the prognosis for the American economy is not great. Bitcoin is a risky asset. As economies contract investors will go to Bonds and lower risk investments. Forget the entire cryptosphere, Bitcoin is still seen as a wild-west investment (maybe Wyoming will be worth something in a hundred years...?) Investors are going to be less likely to speculate on the amount of gold there is in them there hills, but invest in the blue jeans industry instead, since that looks like a sure bet (see nVidia's stock price as an example of this concept.)

I think the purchase of crypto is essentially a short on America (or fiat currency in general). Ultimately this is a good bet (in my opinion), especially as the economies of the 'global south' develop more and collectively have more economic muscle. Divided they are easily exploited, but together they could start throwing their weight around and challenge our current global economic system.

Enter cryptocurrency. The inevitable 'earth credit' for goods and services rendered across borders is inevitable. Crypto not only allows code to eliminate meddling by institutions (like the Fed) but it adds utility to our currency. Money is no longer a tangible measurement of just economic resources, it can contain information as well.

Whether Bitcoin is our future 'earth credit' or a smart contract platform takes that moniker is something we'll need to wait and see. That said, crypto isn't going anywhere, but Bitcoin is going to tank while the world recovers from a two-year long fever dream.

Trade active

I do think BTC is going to 44k and whether it hovers there will determine whether it is starting its recovery or entering another cycle of up followed by deep declines. I've got mine in longs now, but I'm betting on the next 3-8 weeks BTC will be stumbling.

Given the pandemic's monumental spike, institutional investors are going to look to more secure assets. US Bond prices will be one of the leading indicators. US stocks are already starting to stumble, specifically tech.

The stumble may not be long lived, but my money is on a cold winter.

Note

Evening Jan 17 EST, settling into a decline to 42k levels. Real test is here, January 17 looks important. It's all infotainment/edutainment and all of this is coming from a dude who fancies himself a rat. The 20th through the end of the month will tell whether its time to move inside or not for the winter. My mischief will be sad.

BigSwifty

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