Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to my daily analysis of Bitcoin. Today I pulled up the daily just to get a good look at a time frame other than the 4hr. I really appreciate the 4hr as it is seemingly the happy medium between the daily which is very boring to watch and the 1 hour which is a little too busy for me. Dont get me wrong I think the daily is the most important time frame, but the 4hr is right after that and there is just a bit more action on the 4hr. The action on the daily is limited so you may not see the warning signs you would notice on smaller time frames. That is why cycling all the important time frames is crucial if you are trading. Anyways lets take a look at what the chart is trying to tell us.
First of all I can see that on the daily time frame we are firmly within the grasp of the daily cloud at the moment. That daily 50 MA has held the candles in check for approximately 10 days and the longer we stay below the daily 50 MA the more bearish traders are going to become. The 50 MA (on all time frames) is quite telling. While it acts as support and resistance often it also is an indication of whether the market is bearish or bullish. If you are above the 50 MA its bullish and below is obviously bearish. It works like this with the cloud as well (and the 200 MA for that matter) The longer we remain below the daily 50 MA the more that 50 MA will descend and we are getting rejected from the 50 MA which means our likely path is down. It is the path of least resistance at this point.
We are holding onto 9k by the hairs on our chinny chin chin. It is absolutely make or break time for the bulls. One last push to conquer the daily 50 MA or a drop further into the daily cloud. We also fell below the 4hr cloud as I suspected we would yesterday. The reason that I thought this was it was pretty evident the 4hr 50 MA was acting as resistance and it was descending towards the bottom of the 4hr cloud which any fool could see it would push the candles out of the bottom of the cloud eventually. Now we are below that 4hr cloud which is considered bearish. If we cannot retake the cloud (preferably above the cloud but even being inside the cloud is better than being below) Our most likely next stop would be 8800 approximately or the .236 fib on the chart.
Below that if we do free fall is the 200 MA on the daily which is close to being merged with the bottom of the daily cloud for the short term future. If (and that is a BIG "if" folks) we do fall that far I would expect the bottom border of the daily cloud to hold up the candles at least for a little while. There are no guarantees in trading folks. Everything I tell you is based on logic I have learned through 17 months of reading charts. Sure I get things wrong but that is the way trading works. The key is to minimize your losses and maximize your gains. If you do this the right way you can win 50% and lose 50% and still have more profit than losses. You can do this through setting a good stop loss and using smart trading tactics that will allow you to ride a pump til it peaks. You may not catch the top (most people dont catch the top) but you will still do very well. I dont mind missing the top. I typically walk that stop loss up during the pumps. Then when a dump shows up the stop loss will sell if I dont do it myself. I typically am not at my computer 24 hours a day so I allow my stop loss to do the work I am not always around to do.
Trading is not easy, but it is also not rocket science. If you want to learn how to trade trial and error is the best lessons but there are also tons of resources to get you started online. Some free and some paid. Just depends on the degree of learning you desire. If you desire hands on help from the instructor you will have to pay more. If you can learn from videos you can find free content online. Its really up to you. I did a mix. I paid for a few lessons and I learned from 51% crew and a few friends. I am happy with my progress but I still have miles and miles to go. Many traders have big egos and all it does is make the fall hurt that much worse when you get one wrong. I dont mind being wrong and I hope you all know I do get things wrong. But I will give you all my most honest analysis and I will take the L when I get one wrong. Just dont leverage you home away on account of what you read here today. Bitcoin is fickle and contrarian. Bitcoin will flip the script in the blink of an eye so stay on your toes traders. But then again WTFDIK???
TLDR: Happy 4th of July everyone. Bitcoin is the money of free people. Bitcoin = Freedom
First of all I can see that on the daily time frame we are firmly within the grasp of the daily cloud at the moment. That daily 50 MA has held the candles in check for approximately 10 days and the longer we stay below the daily 50 MA the more bearish traders are going to become. The 50 MA (on all time frames) is quite telling. While it acts as support and resistance often it also is an indication of whether the market is bearish or bullish. If you are above the 50 MA its bullish and below is obviously bearish. It works like this with the cloud as well (and the 200 MA for that matter) The longer we remain below the daily 50 MA the more that 50 MA will descend and we are getting rejected from the 50 MA which means our likely path is down. It is the path of least resistance at this point.
We are holding onto 9k by the hairs on our chinny chin chin. It is absolutely make or break time for the bulls. One last push to conquer the daily 50 MA or a drop further into the daily cloud. We also fell below the 4hr cloud as I suspected we would yesterday. The reason that I thought this was it was pretty evident the 4hr 50 MA was acting as resistance and it was descending towards the bottom of the 4hr cloud which any fool could see it would push the candles out of the bottom of the cloud eventually. Now we are below that 4hr cloud which is considered bearish. If we cannot retake the cloud (preferably above the cloud but even being inside the cloud is better than being below) Our most likely next stop would be 8800 approximately or the .236 fib on the chart.
Below that if we do free fall is the 200 MA on the daily which is close to being merged with the bottom of the daily cloud for the short term future. If (and that is a BIG "if" folks) we do fall that far I would expect the bottom border of the daily cloud to hold up the candles at least for a little while. There are no guarantees in trading folks. Everything I tell you is based on logic I have learned through 17 months of reading charts. Sure I get things wrong but that is the way trading works. The key is to minimize your losses and maximize your gains. If you do this the right way you can win 50% and lose 50% and still have more profit than losses. You can do this through setting a good stop loss and using smart trading tactics that will allow you to ride a pump til it peaks. You may not catch the top (most people dont catch the top) but you will still do very well. I dont mind missing the top. I typically walk that stop loss up during the pumps. Then when a dump shows up the stop loss will sell if I dont do it myself. I typically am not at my computer 24 hours a day so I allow my stop loss to do the work I am not always around to do.
Trading is not easy, but it is also not rocket science. If you want to learn how to trade trial and error is the best lessons but there are also tons of resources to get you started online. Some free and some paid. Just depends on the degree of learning you desire. If you desire hands on help from the instructor you will have to pay more. If you can learn from videos you can find free content online. Its really up to you. I did a mix. I paid for a few lessons and I learned from 51% crew and a few friends. I am happy with my progress but I still have miles and miles to go. Many traders have big egos and all it does is make the fall hurt that much worse when you get one wrong. I dont mind being wrong and I hope you all know I do get things wrong. But I will give you all my most honest analysis and I will take the L when I get one wrong. Just dont leverage you home away on account of what you read here today. Bitcoin is fickle and contrarian. Bitcoin will flip the script in the blink of an eye so stay on your toes traders. But then again WTFDIK???
TLDR: Happy 4th of July everyone. Bitcoin is the money of free people. Bitcoin = Freedom
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.