Stability and Volatility. BTC in Accumulation phase
Updated
Hi guys how are you all doing?
I'm picking up from my previous post last March 8, I apologize for not following it up right away but I too panicked below 7700. I needed a few days to calm down and formulate a new strategy.
ALL ASSETS took a beating, no safe haven was safe. Liquidity right now is the best commodity and in that regard Dollar is still king. I'm keeping an eye out how the US markets will react to the stimulus in the next 2 weeks when it really starts to sink in. The bloodbath was to be expected, regardless what the US government do, you have to understand, we are a global economy, the global supply chain is disrupted, travel is restricted and manufacturing plants are not producing. Most western countries and emerging economies have a sizable consumer based economy, and China had the industrial base to supply those economies, but COVID-19 stopped all that. Expect a paradigm shift if the upcoming hurt will have a profound impact in our collective consciousness.
I won't go into detail why Quantitative Easing and 0 interest rates will still fail (best to change it to crypto based digital assets- Decentralized please, NOT CENTRALIZED, otherwise same old shit wrapped in a new diaper), there are other economists who can explain it, instead I will dive into BTC and how our macro might look. Needless to say, not the outcome we were all expecting.
But it is what it is, so let us get down to it.
BTC Summary
Buying picked up after that drop to 3700 plus, to settle now into 4000 to 5000 range. Some say it was caused by Bitmex negative feedback loop of liquidations causing the auto deleveraging to do what it was supposed to- Liquidate all those HIgh Leverage Moon Boys. But that wouldn't be good for everyone so Bitmex shutdown and volume climbed up. Now CZ of Binance has reassured his twitter followers that so long he has a penny, price wont go down to $1000. That is the crypto circuit breaker right there. Thank you CZ and.. Arthur?
Up to you to decide if both are our saviors, they make money with our liquidations btw encouraging us this high leverage game that turns out is not sustainable, even with their INSURANCE FUND.
On the upside this will be healthy for the space because we get to start from a clean slate (for now while there is still fear) and an opportune time to buy (although NOT YET till we find bottom).
All those high leverage buys at 10000 to 7000 liquidated including mine.
IMO the following are the KEY indicators to watch out for (No price levels yet since we are accumulating imho) : -
1. Volume:
The volume remains higher, causing increased volatility . I demarcated the volume with horizontal line showing previous weeks and a broken line denoting our volume this week. Note the BIG GREEN BAR, whales and exchanges saving the price or accumulating at a bargain. Followed by a Red bar after the panic selling in all major markets (the race for liquidity is fast and without mercy, last sell order to be filled is sorry). The next two green bars show most investors wanting to buy at this price, which considering the CME gap to 9060 is a big lucrative bargain. I would wait for this week and see if my algo in W1 has touched bottom.
2. Sentiment:
The Sentiment is still Fear, the corona virus is yet to peak in the US and the 'curves have yet to flat in Italy and Western Europe). Until then investors will hold on to their capital. I would turn to the news to see how it unfolds. So far, future is still bleak with most economic estimates at 2 to 4 years before we can recover. But the tried and tested adage in crypto- BUY when everyone is fearful might be a hint. But my personal opinion, have we bottomed yet?
No one knows. For me its best to be late a few hundred bucks than hold a bag half the value (for investors with tight budgets at least, that's me).
3. WMA:
Weighted Moving Average in D1 is starting to show signs of bullish momentum, but it got rejected yesterday at 5525, short of the 5560. As of writing, D1 candle is midpoint of the WMA line, hence the POTENTIAL bullish momentum. I'll keep an eye on this.
4. Fib retracement from 7900 to 3700 drop , key levels (approx):
at 0.236= $4746
at 0.383= $5379
at 0.5= $5,843, if achieved in 1 week, Bullish till 7000 this month (up to .786 level) BUT this is Very Optimistic
MY Realistic view mid term (within this month): Ranging between 5,000 to 5,600.
5. The channels i have included the previous Bear Market before January and the latest from 10500 before COVID-19.
6. Bullish Divergence in D1 at RSI and Money Flow Indicator. Its getting weaker though and it is not breaking new highs. NOT A STRONG Buy signal as of yet, reflecting the Accumulation phase of BTC.
My personal opinion is, Buy if you have extra. But Buy the Dips, H4 is a good Time Frame to trade with H1 as entry.
Wait 2 weeks if you are short of cash. Can't eat bitcoin. WMA will be my guide for macro, I would be very picky with my trades H4 only.
DOWNSIDE to WAITING if price GOES UP: Being late a few hundred bucks is the worst case scenario if you wait. Peace of mind knowing our favorite asset isn't dead. We can always invest in good alt projects.
DOWNSIDE to Buying if Price Goes Down: Short on cash, plus holding a bag with lesser value, waiting till God knows when price will recover, psychologically taxing and more stressful.
Safe Trades Everyone and Stay Safe.
I'm picking up from my previous post last March 8, I apologize for not following it up right away but I too panicked below 7700. I needed a few days to calm down and formulate a new strategy.
ALL ASSETS took a beating, no safe haven was safe. Liquidity right now is the best commodity and in that regard Dollar is still king. I'm keeping an eye out how the US markets will react to the stimulus in the next 2 weeks when it really starts to sink in. The bloodbath was to be expected, regardless what the US government do, you have to understand, we are a global economy, the global supply chain is disrupted, travel is restricted and manufacturing plants are not producing. Most western countries and emerging economies have a sizable consumer based economy, and China had the industrial base to supply those economies, but COVID-19 stopped all that. Expect a paradigm shift if the upcoming hurt will have a profound impact in our collective consciousness.
I won't go into detail why Quantitative Easing and 0 interest rates will still fail (best to change it to crypto based digital assets- Decentralized please, NOT CENTRALIZED, otherwise same old shit wrapped in a new diaper), there are other economists who can explain it, instead I will dive into BTC and how our macro might look. Needless to say, not the outcome we were all expecting.
But it is what it is, so let us get down to it.
BTC Summary
Buying picked up after that drop to 3700 plus, to settle now into 4000 to 5000 range. Some say it was caused by Bitmex negative feedback loop of liquidations causing the auto deleveraging to do what it was supposed to- Liquidate all those HIgh Leverage Moon Boys. But that wouldn't be good for everyone so Bitmex shutdown and volume climbed up. Now CZ of Binance has reassured his twitter followers that so long he has a penny, price wont go down to $1000. That is the crypto circuit breaker right there. Thank you CZ and.. Arthur?
Up to you to decide if both are our saviors, they make money with our liquidations btw encouraging us this high leverage game that turns out is not sustainable, even with their INSURANCE FUND.
On the upside this will be healthy for the space because we get to start from a clean slate (for now while there is still fear) and an opportune time to buy (although NOT YET till we find bottom).
All those high leverage buys at 10000 to 7000 liquidated including mine.
IMO the following are the KEY indicators to watch out for (No price levels yet since we are accumulating imho) : -
1. Volume:
The volume remains higher, causing increased volatility . I demarcated the volume with horizontal line showing previous weeks and a broken line denoting our volume this week. Note the BIG GREEN BAR, whales and exchanges saving the price or accumulating at a bargain. Followed by a Red bar after the panic selling in all major markets (the race for liquidity is fast and without mercy, last sell order to be filled is sorry). The next two green bars show most investors wanting to buy at this price, which considering the CME gap to 9060 is a big lucrative bargain. I would wait for this week and see if my algo in W1 has touched bottom.
2. Sentiment:
The Sentiment is still Fear, the corona virus is yet to peak in the US and the 'curves have yet to flat in Italy and Western Europe). Until then investors will hold on to their capital. I would turn to the news to see how it unfolds. So far, future is still bleak with most economic estimates at 2 to 4 years before we can recover. But the tried and tested adage in crypto- BUY when everyone is fearful might be a hint. But my personal opinion, have we bottomed yet?
No one knows. For me its best to be late a few hundred bucks than hold a bag half the value (for investors with tight budgets at least, that's me).
3. WMA:
Weighted Moving Average in D1 is starting to show signs of bullish momentum, but it got rejected yesterday at 5525, short of the 5560. As of writing, D1 candle is midpoint of the WMA line, hence the POTENTIAL bullish momentum. I'll keep an eye on this.
4. Fib retracement from 7900 to 3700 drop , key levels (approx):
at 0.236= $4746
at 0.383= $5379
at 0.5= $5,843, if achieved in 1 week, Bullish till 7000 this month (up to .786 level) BUT this is Very Optimistic
MY Realistic view mid term (within this month): Ranging between 5,000 to 5,600.
5. The channels i have included the previous Bear Market before January and the latest from 10500 before COVID-19.
6. Bullish Divergence in D1 at RSI and Money Flow Indicator. Its getting weaker though and it is not breaking new highs. NOT A STRONG Buy signal as of yet, reflecting the Accumulation phase of BTC.
My personal opinion is, Buy if you have extra. But Buy the Dips, H4 is a good Time Frame to trade with H1 as entry.
Wait 2 weeks if you are short of cash. Can't eat bitcoin. WMA will be my guide for macro, I would be very picky with my trades H4 only.
DOWNSIDE to WAITING if price GOES UP: Being late a few hundred bucks is the worst case scenario if you wait. Peace of mind knowing our favorite asset isn't dead. We can always invest in good alt projects.
DOWNSIDE to Buying if Price Goes Down: Short on cash, plus holding a bag with lesser value, waiting till God knows when price will recover, psychologically taxing and more stressful.
Safe Trades Everyone and Stay Safe.
Note
i have opened a small position long from 5550 since we breached the 5525 previous high yesterday and we are almost past the WMA2pp with good momentum on D1 stochastic RSI and bullish divergence. as always oserve SL and TP when you can. suggested SL is 5460 and TP at 5800. If we lose momentum with stoch RSI in H4 time frame i will exit my trade. safe trades all 🙏
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