Short

BTC Bear pennant forming

Updated

Just an update on my overall view of where we are heading: There's a bear pennant forming right now. This means more downward movement is imminent. It also looks like it could be wave 1 of the last impulse wave down, forming the C sub-wave that completes the bigger E-wave down of the Cycle-wave 4 correction that started December. Again, if (only if) this count is correct, it would signal the end of the correction.

Note

Looks like just after I published this, the bear pennant actually broke down, but I would have expected a stronger push down. Well, the bottom trend-line rejected it nicely. Then came this erratic pump up last night, and now it looks like we want to test the smaller down-trend line. This all makes the EW count I have look quite ugly at this point, but I still can not discard its validity. Here's how it looks now:

OTOH, this places the 1:1 extension of wave (i) right at the $6000 level. Makes a nice fit. Since we bounced off the trend-line, if wave (iii) pushes down through it, it make for a nice resistance for wave (iv) to get rejected further downward.
Let's see how this develops.

Note

We are trending up in a channel, looking how far wave (ii) can go before we need to invalidate it. It looks like there is a ABC wave inside (ii) making a 5-3-5 structure. The 1:1 extension of this a to c wave looks a bit too long, so I'd think it might target a 0.786 fib extension of wave a, which pits it nicely at also a 0.786 fib retracement of (i) and touching the green trend-line which is a weak but still possible resistance to bounce off of.

Note

Are the subwaves of the ABC subwaves of a bigger ABCDE also possibly just ABC corrective waves? Can't find much info about it. Someone knowledgeable of EW theory can tell if the following modified count is still valid?

yope

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Related publications

3. End of Cycle wave 4

by yope

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