13/05/24 Weekly outlook
Updated
Are you getting bored yet? Another week of chop has elapsed, and in short there is not much else to say on the surface. BTC took out it's previous weeks high and then retraced roughly half of the progress made, filling the FVG left behind by the local move up and creating our range low for this week. As it so often does, the range perfectly shows the levels of which price action moves throughout the week. We had 1.1B worth of options expire on May 10th last week which gave BTC it's volatility on Friday creating the weeks low and creating an FVG. I believe it makers sense for price to work towards filling that FVG and retesting the MIDPOINT resistance. If price rejects then next stop is range low, if price accepts higher then range high is the target, simple as that on LTF.
In terms of the broader market, the ETF battle is still being won by the bearish GBTC Greyscale as their continued outflow of BTC with a outflow of 43M vs the net inflow of the 11 other US BTC spot ETFs totalling 32M. Resulting in a net outflow pf 11M
The altcoin market continues to weaken as BTC continues to chop, risk off on leverage continues until BTC can confidently regain the 4H 200EMA, until then spot and hold.
In terms of the broader market, the ETF battle is still being won by the bearish GBTC Greyscale as their continued outflow of BTC with a outflow of 43M vs the net inflow of the 11 other US BTC spot ETFs totalling 32M. Resulting in a net outflow pf 11M
The altcoin market continues to weaken as BTC continues to chop, risk off on leverage continues until BTC can confidently regain the 4H 200EMA, until then spot and hold.
Comment
sooner than expected we're at the MIDPOINT retest, lets see what happens here.Comment
first touch of the 4H 200EMA @ $63,300.Rejected for now, we'll see what happens at the NY open.
Comment
Second touch of the 4H 200EMA, this time the wick breaking through. Could we see a close above?Comment
Rejected for a second time, 3rd time lucky?Comment
PPI in 15 minutes. Could this event provide the push needed to overcome the 4H 200EMA resistance?Comment
CPI results are in:(YoY) As forecast
Previous: 3.5%
Forecast: 3.4%
Actual: 3.4%
(MoM) Better than forecast
Previous: 0.4%
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.3%
Bullish candle on the news, could this finally get BTC above the 4H 200EMA
Comment
Price now above 4H 200EMA, waiting for a close above in 2 hours time.Comment
First close above the 4H 200EMA for over a week but even then it was short lived and as resistance.BTC is still in a downtrend on the 4H as it has been for over a month. BTC needs to show strength from here, another fakeout/rejection would be a tough one to bare.
Comment
retesting range high as new support, very important level to hold if we're to continue the rally
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