1️⃣ Market Context
Time-frame: 4-hour chart (May 18 → May 21 2025 window).
Trend: Broad up-trend from 101 k, but momentum has flattened as price grinds into higher-time-frame supply between 107 k–108 k.
Narrative: After the post-halving rally, BTC is cooling off beneath fresh liquidity clusters. A tight rising-wedge often precedes a profit-taking flush before trend continuation.
2️⃣ Structure & Pattern
Component Observation Significance
Rising-wedge Converging higher-lows + marginally higher-highs Bearish reversal when printed near resistance
Resistance box (107 320 – 107 982) Three rejections, long top wicks, shrinking candle bodies Aggressive sellers parked overhead
Support box (101 600 – 102 000) Previous breakout base + wedge baseline First liquidity pocket below pattern
Measured-move Height of wedge ≈ 6.2 k → projects to 100 770 Aligns with daily imbalance & psychological 100 k handle
3️⃣ Trade Setup (Short Idea)
Parameters
Trigger 4 h close below the wedge’s lower trendline (≈ 104 800) or an impulsive wick-through with volume expansion
Entry zone 104 500 – 103 800 (retest of broken wedge support)
Initial stop-loss 108 050 (just above supply box + local HH)
Targets ♦ T1: 102 000 (cover 50 %) ♦ T2: 100 776 (full measured-move) ♦ Stretch: 98 600 (gap fill)
R-R ratio ≈ 1 : 2.4 to T1, 1 : 4+ to final target
4️⃣ Confluence & Indicators (optional to monitor)
RSI (14) printing lower-highs → early bearish divergence vs price.
OBV / Volume shows distribution spikes on each push into 107 k.
200-EMA (4 h) currently at 101 900 — sits inside the support box, adding magnetism to that level.
Fibs: 0.382 retrace of the last leg (97 400 → 107 982) lands at 103 800 — right at the anticipated breakdown retest zone.
5️⃣ Invalidation & Alternate Path
Bullish invalidation: 4 h candle closes above 108 100 with follow-through — wedges morph into ascending-triangle continuation.
Upside targets if invalidated: 110 900 swing high, then 112 500 macro resistance.
6️⃣Risk Management & Checklis
Wait for confirmation (break + retest) — no premature entries inside the wedge.
Size for ≤ 1 % account risk; widen stop only if volatility expands.
Move SL to breakeven once 102 k prints; trail above 1-hour lower-highs thereafter.
Mind macro news (Fed minutes, ETF flows) that can trigger whipsaws.
7️⃣ Takeaway
BTC is compressing inside a rising-wedge directly under multi-touch supply. Probability favours a downside flush to the 101 k–100 k pocket where fresh buyers likely await. Trade the break, respect invalidation, and let the measured-move do the heavy lifting.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.