BTC (Y20.P3.E24).Price Action explained + more
Updated
Hi All,
I had this chart and 1 other indicating that the rejected level would be as it did today as it had many reasons to justifying it.
(Note I moved the shadow to the right of the price action in order to give visibility to the chart otherwise the shadow would be directly over it)
How much it would drop, I did not go into detail except the fractal and surprising it was accurate.
Hence this particular chart I posted (below) is from the bigger picture (above), published under my last BTC post on the 30th some 3 days ago highlighting the fractal setup. The link is below.
Maybe I should have but I did not do a followup BTC specific post for I had other crypto that warranted my attention, Eg. LINK, ETH for they are better performing opportunities.
Having said that, this is what I updated that post on the 30th with this fractal.
The bigger picture
*************************************************
Now the explanation as to why we got a strong rejection at this level and the good news I still feel we will still have a higher level for impulse 5, but it has pre-conditions or a caveat.
*************************************************
The rejection case for 12k
a) The level has confluence with the Weekly resistance chart, level where the body of the weekly candle rejected this price indicated by the weekly resistance level (WR)
b) The sloping resistance has perfect confluence\cross over at the same point\level
c) Its a round number
d) Historically, July\August 2019, it was a rejection level a few times
Hence a strong rejection area.
My thoughts:
=====================================================================================================
Those who follow me know how much I put weight of the direction of BTC or more so its trajectory being linked to the general (stock, gold and currency) markets.
My previous post showed on many occasions BTC pegged with the SP500 and Gold. I also believe at time they are de-linked. Just depends as to what's happening across the board.
Eg. If BTC is flat and the USD is performing really well, people would tend to move their funds across platforms where its evident to make money.
Now the caveat I have is coming this week. How is the SP500 going to go this week as it too has made new highs. Come Monday and the market doors open, this will effect BTC as well.
If these markets don't lose much ground and move sideways, then I would stick to my original thoughts that BTC wave 5 impulse is equivalent to the Monthly resistance candle which equates to 13800.
I am not confident that 13800 will be wave 5 or this level because I don't know how the other markets will do.
Having assumed that there is no major drop in those markets, I am then of the opinion that for now, price is stumped and will consolidate above 10800 to 11500 and get a squeeze for the next level up to 13800. If this is to occur, then 13800 could still possibly be wave 5. What after that? I think the price will drop below 10K for the last time for a very long time (2 years) while BTC starts is bull run.
So my thoughts are that what we are seeing is impulse 1 of a large macro elliot wave.
These thoughts are not mine but borrowed from 1 person I think knows his stuff. But having a theory or idea doesn't make it so, we need to see the boxes ticked.
FYI, I'm not claiming to be good or right, just sharing my wins or successful calls because I also don't get many at the macro level but lately past 6 months, I'm doing well, better than the previous 2 years.
Why? I think I turned another corner so come with me on this journey and maybe you too will pick up some tips.
LAST BTC posting with the reject level of 12200 fractal.
WEEKLY Chart including monthly resistance and support
Please give me a tick or like for this post
Regards,
S.Sari
I had this chart and 1 other indicating that the rejected level would be as it did today as it had many reasons to justifying it.
(Note I moved the shadow to the right of the price action in order to give visibility to the chart otherwise the shadow would be directly over it)
How much it would drop, I did not go into detail except the fractal and surprising it was accurate.
Hence this particular chart I posted (below) is from the bigger picture (above), published under my last BTC post on the 30th some 3 days ago highlighting the fractal setup. The link is below.
Maybe I should have but I did not do a followup BTC specific post for I had other crypto that warranted my attention, Eg. LINK, ETH for they are better performing opportunities.
Having said that, this is what I updated that post on the 30th with this fractal.
The bigger picture
*************************************************
Now the explanation as to why we got a strong rejection at this level and the good news I still feel we will still have a higher level for impulse 5, but it has pre-conditions or a caveat.
*************************************************
The rejection case for 12k
a) The level has confluence with the Weekly resistance chart, level where the body of the weekly candle rejected this price indicated by the weekly resistance level (WR)
b) The sloping resistance has perfect confluence\cross over at the same point\level
c) Its a round number
d) Historically, July\August 2019, it was a rejection level a few times
Hence a strong rejection area.
My thoughts:
=====================================================================================================
Those who follow me know how much I put weight of the direction of BTC or more so its trajectory being linked to the general (stock, gold and currency) markets.
My previous post showed on many occasions BTC pegged with the SP500 and Gold. I also believe at time they are de-linked. Just depends as to what's happening across the board.
Eg. If BTC is flat and the USD is performing really well, people would tend to move their funds across platforms where its evident to make money.
Now the caveat I have is coming this week. How is the SP500 going to go this week as it too has made new highs. Come Monday and the market doors open, this will effect BTC as well.
If these markets don't lose much ground and move sideways, then I would stick to my original thoughts that BTC wave 5 impulse is equivalent to the Monthly resistance candle which equates to 13800.
I am not confident that 13800 will be wave 5 or this level because I don't know how the other markets will do.
Having assumed that there is no major drop in those markets, I am then of the opinion that for now, price is stumped and will consolidate above 10800 to 11500 and get a squeeze for the next level up to 13800. If this is to occur, then 13800 could still possibly be wave 5. What after that? I think the price will drop below 10K for the last time for a very long time (2 years) while BTC starts is bull run.
So my thoughts are that what we are seeing is impulse 1 of a large macro elliot wave.
These thoughts are not mine but borrowed from 1 person I think knows his stuff. But having a theory or idea doesn't make it so, we need to see the boxes ticked.
FYI, I'm not claiming to be good or right, just sharing my wins or successful calls because I also don't get many at the macro level but lately past 6 months, I'm doing well, better than the previous 2 years.
Why? I think I turned another corner so come with me on this journey and maybe you too will pick up some tips.
LAST BTC posting with the reject level of 12200 fractal.
WEEKLY Chart including monthly resistance and support
Please give me a tick or like for this post
Regards,
S.Sari
Note
I forgot to explain another compelling reason why we will go once more down below 10K, after impulse 5, be it 12120 or higher (13800 max).We have the CME gap at the 9200 range.
Note
Here was the other chart in that postNote
My SP500 chart with previous lines and forecasts. It looks like it will stay sideways which is good for BTC.Note
Looking at the previous chart indicators and looking at the current indicators, we are going down and likely find support between 10500 to 10800 for another attempt which will fall short and I now think we will slowly head below 10k.Note
I also expect another typical scenario where we have a symmetrical triangle to confuse the hell out of us.
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This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
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