Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to my daily analysis of Bitcoin. Today I have the 4hr pulled up again while my trading set up catches up to the candles on the daily. After big moves it takes a few days for my set up (50 MA, 200 MA, and the Ichimoku cloud). The 4hr time frame is jiving with my set up at this time so that is why Im sharing it again. There is still plenty to be bullish about but one should always be cautious. We all saw how quickly a drop can materialize the other night when we dropped like 10% or more in a single 4hr candle. Anyways lets take a look at the charts.
First thing I want to go over is the 4hr 50 MA . It seems to be the border between a possible drop and a possible spring board back to 12k. The 4hr 50 MA has held up well over the past 2 or 3 days and we have really been testing the hell out of the indicator. When traders notice support like this it gives the market confidence enough to invest. If traders see a possible drop on the horizon you cannot blame them for not buying in at that particular time. But if they see support holding and more support below it that could catch the candles if they did break through you can bet that traders will gain confidence. We just like seeing support below us. Its like a safety net. Do safety nets ever fail? Sometimes yes. But if you are walking a tight rope you definitely want that safety net. Even if there is the slightest chance it could fail. That safety net gives the tight rope walker the confidence he or she needs to confidently make it to the other side. Trading is no different.
The weekly looks good for now. We are above all the key indicators I throw onto my charts. When you are above the 50 MA, 200 MA, and the Ichimoku cloud that is all bullish in nature.. Traders and bots too notice when we were above the 50 MA, 200 MA, and the Ichimoku cloud on the major time frames (4hr daily and weekly). This coupled with breaking the 2.5 year resistance and the fact that the halving pump should be occurring right on schedule makes for a great recipe for bullish moves. We havent spent much time above the weekly cloud since December of last year. You can see that once we established support above the weekly cloud things really took off. I think a lot of factors contributed to this recent pump. Sort of like the perfect storm that created the fomo traders like to see.
I thought we would fill in the gap we just created this past weekend but it was not meant to be yesterday. Typically most gaps fill within the first few days of their existence. This gap very well could be the exception to the rule but I am optimistic none the less. We approached the lower part of the gap and got soundly rejected back to 11200 approximately. The gap is not big (only 40 dollars approximately) so it would not take much pump to kill the gap. I would say 97%-98% of all gaps fill within a week of forming. We do have 3 gaps below us that could see Bitcoin looking like Julius Cesar after Brutus and his crew wrecked shop. We have a recent gap between 9600 - 9900 USD and the next gap down is 7600 approximately and the final gap below us is at 3600 approximately. We could never fill these gaps. We may fill them this week? I can tell you I dont think we will fill them but this is BTC. You all need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If you do that you can limit your losses while maximizing your gains. That is my strategy ultimately. It may sound simple. But that is it.
One thing I believe we can all agree on is it is really REALLY nice to finally break away from 9200. We were seemingly at that level for decades! LOL. That consolidation allowed the bollinger bands to squeeze and that also added fuel to the camp fire and helped push that pump. I was bearish before we broke the 2.5 year resistance... Yes I was wrong. But that doesnt mean I lost money. I typically go long in that situation and set a strict stop loss. I actually got locked out of my coinbase recently (I got access back this past Friday). I was trying to grab a few hundred dollars worth of BTC to pay a bill or 2 and I couldnt get to the BTC because I goofed. (Long story that I dont want to get too deep into this a.m.) But when I tried to actually do the transaction I found out that I was locked out. I contacted CB and told them my situation and was told I was in line basically. This was when BTC was in the lower 9k range. Well 2 weeks later and Im frustrated as hell waiting for CB to fix the issue. They finally got it fixed this past Friday and the BTC I was trying to cash out had gained like 20% LOL. What a great accident!!! So I paid the bills and got some loud with the extra!
It is certainly exciting to see all the buzz around BTC and Im not saying a dump is imminent but you should always be prepared for one. Like skydiving. You could technically jump from the plane with just a regular parachute. You have a 99.9% chance of surviving. Those are great odds. But you still want that back up parachute. I know I would. That is my metaphor for a stop loss if you havent noticed. Stop losses help me sleep at night. There are definitely times where they dont trip due to high volatility and all I can say to that is yes it sucks. But that doesnt mean you should abandon a stop loss strategy. I have probably had this issue 3 times I imagine. Perhaps more. But I still think stop losses are a wonderful tool. Bitcoin has outperformed most investments this year. It looks like BTC is coming into its own. Gold has been doing very well too. In times of economic uncertainty gold is a go to for those afraid of mass inflation or economic turmoil. People trust gold. For good reason. Gold wont make you rich, but it can stop you from becoming a victim of inflation.
With all this stimulus talk in the US we all know how they make that money. BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR. That money printer will be working overtime inflating our currency even more so than it already is. This wont last forever. The United States printed more money in June than in the first two centuries after its founding. Incredible. This is scary to anyone that understands inflation. People look at the stimulus and think *I really need this money. And they do need the money. But its a short term bandaid. People dont realize how inflation works because at the end of the day that 20 dollar bill in your wallet is still a 20 dollar bill. But the purchasing power is what takes the hit, and its invisible to the average citizen. I dont think the USD will fail any time soon but I do think Bitcoin has everything going for it. 21 million Bitcoin. That is all that will be created. Ever. This fact alone shows that if BTC can avoid hacks and the minefield of govt overreach than we may see 6 figure BTC one of these days. Especially if BTC becomes the store of value I expect. People like to point out how slow BTC is but that is accompanied by the most secure chain in crypto. Do I think I will ever be able to buy my lunch at Mcdonalds with BTC? Probably not (barring a significant boost to lightning which has been very quiet lately) I expect BTC to resemble digital gold. It does not matter if its slow. What do you think? Will BTC become a reserve currency to the entire planet or will it become like Gold? Or will it die out completely? I love these discussions. Sorry to blab on so long. I hope you all have a great day. Make good choices! WTFDIK???
TLDR: Consolidation at the 11200 range. The 4hr 50 MA is supporting us at this time. Set that stop loss and lets see where this rocket ship takes us
First thing I want to go over is the 4hr 50 MA . It seems to be the border between a possible drop and a possible spring board back to 12k. The 4hr 50 MA has held up well over the past 2 or 3 days and we have really been testing the hell out of the indicator. When traders notice support like this it gives the market confidence enough to invest. If traders see a possible drop on the horizon you cannot blame them for not buying in at that particular time. But if they see support holding and more support below it that could catch the candles if they did break through you can bet that traders will gain confidence. We just like seeing support below us. Its like a safety net. Do safety nets ever fail? Sometimes yes. But if you are walking a tight rope you definitely want that safety net. Even if there is the slightest chance it could fail. That safety net gives the tight rope walker the confidence he or she needs to confidently make it to the other side. Trading is no different.
The weekly looks good for now. We are above all the key indicators I throw onto my charts. When you are above the 50 MA, 200 MA, and the Ichimoku cloud that is all bullish in nature.. Traders and bots too notice when we were above the 50 MA, 200 MA, and the Ichimoku cloud on the major time frames (4hr daily and weekly). This coupled with breaking the 2.5 year resistance and the fact that the halving pump should be occurring right on schedule makes for a great recipe for bullish moves. We havent spent much time above the weekly cloud since December of last year. You can see that once we established support above the weekly cloud things really took off. I think a lot of factors contributed to this recent pump. Sort of like the perfect storm that created the fomo traders like to see.
I thought we would fill in the gap we just created this past weekend but it was not meant to be yesterday. Typically most gaps fill within the first few days of their existence. This gap very well could be the exception to the rule but I am optimistic none the less. We approached the lower part of the gap and got soundly rejected back to 11200 approximately. The gap is not big (only 40 dollars approximately) so it would not take much pump to kill the gap. I would say 97%-98% of all gaps fill within a week of forming. We do have 3 gaps below us that could see Bitcoin looking like Julius Cesar after Brutus and his crew wrecked shop. We have a recent gap between 9600 - 9900 USD and the next gap down is 7600 approximately and the final gap below us is at 3600 approximately. We could never fill these gaps. We may fill them this week? I can tell you I dont think we will fill them but this is BTC. You all need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If you do that you can limit your losses while maximizing your gains. That is my strategy ultimately. It may sound simple. But that is it.
One thing I believe we can all agree on is it is really REALLY nice to finally break away from 9200. We were seemingly at that level for decades! LOL. That consolidation allowed the bollinger bands to squeeze and that also added fuel to the camp fire and helped push that pump. I was bearish before we broke the 2.5 year resistance... Yes I was wrong. But that doesnt mean I lost money. I typically go long in that situation and set a strict stop loss. I actually got locked out of my coinbase recently (I got access back this past Friday). I was trying to grab a few hundred dollars worth of BTC to pay a bill or 2 and I couldnt get to the BTC because I goofed. (Long story that I dont want to get too deep into this a.m.) But when I tried to actually do the transaction I found out that I was locked out. I contacted CB and told them my situation and was told I was in line basically. This was when BTC was in the lower 9k range. Well 2 weeks later and Im frustrated as hell waiting for CB to fix the issue. They finally got it fixed this past Friday and the BTC I was trying to cash out had gained like 20% LOL. What a great accident!!! So I paid the bills and got some loud with the extra!
It is certainly exciting to see all the buzz around BTC and Im not saying a dump is imminent but you should always be prepared for one. Like skydiving. You could technically jump from the plane with just a regular parachute. You have a 99.9% chance of surviving. Those are great odds. But you still want that back up parachute. I know I would. That is my metaphor for a stop loss if you havent noticed. Stop losses help me sleep at night. There are definitely times where they dont trip due to high volatility and all I can say to that is yes it sucks. But that doesnt mean you should abandon a stop loss strategy. I have probably had this issue 3 times I imagine. Perhaps more. But I still think stop losses are a wonderful tool. Bitcoin has outperformed most investments this year. It looks like BTC is coming into its own. Gold has been doing very well too. In times of economic uncertainty gold is a go to for those afraid of mass inflation or economic turmoil. People trust gold. For good reason. Gold wont make you rich, but it can stop you from becoming a victim of inflation.
With all this stimulus talk in the US we all know how they make that money. BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR. That money printer will be working overtime inflating our currency even more so than it already is. This wont last forever. The United States printed more money in June than in the first two centuries after its founding. Incredible. This is scary to anyone that understands inflation. People look at the stimulus and think *I really need this money. And they do need the money. But its a short term bandaid. People dont realize how inflation works because at the end of the day that 20 dollar bill in your wallet is still a 20 dollar bill. But the purchasing power is what takes the hit, and its invisible to the average citizen. I dont think the USD will fail any time soon but I do think Bitcoin has everything going for it. 21 million Bitcoin. That is all that will be created. Ever. This fact alone shows that if BTC can avoid hacks and the minefield of govt overreach than we may see 6 figure BTC one of these days. Especially if BTC becomes the store of value I expect. People like to point out how slow BTC is but that is accompanied by the most secure chain in crypto. Do I think I will ever be able to buy my lunch at Mcdonalds with BTC? Probably not (barring a significant boost to lightning which has been very quiet lately) I expect BTC to resemble digital gold. It does not matter if its slow. What do you think? Will BTC become a reserve currency to the entire planet or will it become like Gold? Or will it die out completely? I love these discussions. Sorry to blab on so long. I hope you all have a great day. Make good choices! WTFDIK???
TLDR: Consolidation at the 11200 range. The 4hr 50 MA is supporting us at this time. Set that stop loss and lets see where this rocket ship takes us
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.