weekly outlook
Updated
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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
It appears to be breaking upward through the 0.886 (56227.18) to 1 (61338.93) range, which was considered a resistance range.
Accordingly, it has become important to be able to maintain the price above 1 (61338.93).
The next target is around 1.618 (89050.0).
The key is whether it will rise like this and touch, or whether it will create a pull back pattern and rise.
To date, the maximum period for which the StochRSI indicator remained at the top of the overbought zone was two months.
(1W chart)
Looking at the 1W chart, the maximum resistance area is around 66401.82.
Therefore, it is judged that the upward trend will continue only when it breaks above 66401.82.
If it fails to break above 66401.82 and falls below 59035.55, it is likely to turn into a downtrend.
However, there is a possibility that the downtrend will continue only if it falls further below 53256.64, so you should think about a response plan for the 53256.64-59035.55 range.
If the downtrend that started like this is truly a downtrend, it is expected to fall below 44200-47600 and show resistance.
Otherwise, if it receives support around 44200-47600 and rises, it is expected to create a pull back pattern and continue the upward trend.
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(BTC.D 1M chart)
In order to achieve a big bull market, BTC dominance must show a decline.
Otherwise, if it becomes a bull market in which only BTC and ETH rise, or if BTC appears to be about to fall slightly, altcoins will see a large decline.
Therefore, it is believed that BTC dominance must fall below 50 and be maintained to create a stable bull market.
(USDT.D 1M chart)
USDT dominance is expected to remain below 4.97 for the coin market to remain bullish.
However, if it falls below 4.16 and then rises above 4.16 to around 4.97, the coin market as a whole is expected to see a large decline.
At this time, you need to check whether BTC dominance has risen to the 55.01-62.47 range or higher, or is maintained around 50.
This is because it is thought that if BTC rises in the 55.01-62.47 range or higher and is supported around 44200-47600 and rises, there is a high possibility that a major bull market will begin.
If BTC dominance remains around 50 and then declines, the coin market will also see a large increase.
Unlike previous BTC halvings, this time BTC and ETH are maintaining an upward trend alternately.
Accordingly, it is believed that BTC dominance shows no direction and shows sideways movements.
However, it is thought that it is unlikely that the bull market will continue while maintaining the current level of BTC dominance, so it is necessary to check the direction of BTC dominance.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
We talked about the mid- to long-term perspective with the 1M chart and 1W chart, but the immediate movement, that is, the short-term perspective, may be more important.
The reason is that it rose near the new high (ATH).
It is currently supported around 1 (61338.93) and is showing an upward trend.
However, since StochRSI < StochRSI EMA, I think we need to hold the price above 63660.11 to break out of this situation.
If it shows resistance around 63660.11, it will fall back to around 1 (61338.93).
Therefore, from a short-term perspective, the key is which direction it deviates from the 1 (61338.93) to 63660.11 range and maintains it.
If it breaks above 63660.11, it can be purchased through day trading and the target is around 66401.82.
If it falls below 1 (61338.93), you should check for support around 59053.55.
The next period of volatility will be around March 10 (March 9-11).
Have a good time.
thank you
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- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting area, you should check the movement when this area is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-----------------
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-------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
It appears to be breaking upward through the 0.886 (56227.18) to 1 (61338.93) range, which was considered a resistance range.
Accordingly, it has become important to be able to maintain the price above 1 (61338.93).
The next target is around 1.618 (89050.0).
The key is whether it will rise like this and touch, or whether it will create a pull back pattern and rise.
To date, the maximum period for which the StochRSI indicator remained at the top of the overbought zone was two months.
(1W chart)
Looking at the 1W chart, the maximum resistance area is around 66401.82.
Therefore, it is judged that the upward trend will continue only when it breaks above 66401.82.
If it fails to break above 66401.82 and falls below 59035.55, it is likely to turn into a downtrend.
However, there is a possibility that the downtrend will continue only if it falls further below 53256.64, so you should think about a response plan for the 53256.64-59035.55 range.
If the downtrend that started like this is truly a downtrend, it is expected to fall below 44200-47600 and show resistance.
Otherwise, if it receives support around 44200-47600 and rises, it is expected to create a pull back pattern and continue the upward trend.
--------------------------------------------
(BTC.D 1M chart)
In order to achieve a big bull market, BTC dominance must show a decline.
Otherwise, if it becomes a bull market in which only BTC and ETH rise, or if BTC appears to be about to fall slightly, altcoins will see a large decline.
Therefore, it is believed that BTC dominance must fall below 50 and be maintained to create a stable bull market.
(USDT.D 1M chart)
USDT dominance is expected to remain below 4.97 for the coin market to remain bullish.
However, if it falls below 4.16 and then rises above 4.16 to around 4.97, the coin market as a whole is expected to see a large decline.
At this time, you need to check whether BTC dominance has risen to the 55.01-62.47 range or higher, or is maintained around 50.
This is because it is thought that if BTC rises in the 55.01-62.47 range or higher and is supported around 44200-47600 and rises, there is a high possibility that a major bull market will begin.
If BTC dominance remains around 50 and then declines, the coin market will also see a large increase.
Unlike previous BTC halvings, this time BTC and ETH are maintaining an upward trend alternately.
Accordingly, it is believed that BTC dominance shows no direction and shows sideways movements.
However, it is thought that it is unlikely that the bull market will continue while maintaining the current level of BTC dominance, so it is necessary to check the direction of BTC dominance.
----------------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
We talked about the mid- to long-term perspective with the 1M chart and 1W chart, but the immediate movement, that is, the short-term perspective, may be more important.
The reason is that it rose near the new high (ATH).
It is currently supported around 1 (61338.93) and is showing an upward trend.
However, since StochRSI < StochRSI EMA, I think we need to hold the price above 63660.11 to break out of this situation.
If it shows resistance around 63660.11, it will fall back to around 1 (61338.93).
Therefore, from a short-term perspective, the key is which direction it deviates from the 1 (61338.93) to 63660.11 range and maintains it.
If it breaks above 63660.11, it can be purchased through day trading and the target is around 66401.82.
If it falls below 1 (61338.93), you should check for support around 59053.55.
The next period of volatility will be around March 10 (March 9-11).
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting area, you should check the movement when this area is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-----------------
Note
(BTCUSDT.P 1D chart)It appears that we have reached a point where we can catch SHORT with multiplayer.
However, it is recommended that the investment proportion be set to less than half of the LONG position.
The entry time is around 63725.4 or 66395.1.
The target is around 59100.0-59409.3.
(1h chart)
In order to enter a SHORT position, it is basically recommended to proceed when the price falls below 5EMA on the 1D chart.
Otherwise, it is likely to touch around the 5EMA on the 1D chart and rise.
The 5EMA on the 1D chart has risen to around 62260.3, so it is expected to touch it soon.
At this time, check if the price is maintained by falling below the 5EMA on the 1D chart and buy with a SHORT position.
It is recommended to check if the StochRSI indicator falls from the overbought zone and becomes StochRSI < StochRSI EMA.
The stop loss point is the entry price.
Note
(BTCUSDT 1W chart)It has risen to the highest resistance zone I mentioned.
If the price holds above 66401.82, it is expected to hit a new high (ATH).
The next target is 1.618 (89050.0).
If it falls below 66401.82,
1st: 56950.56 ~ 1 (61338.93)
2nd: 53256.64
3rd: 44200-47600
You need to check if you receive support around the 1st to 3rd levels above.
As before, I think it needs to fall below 44200-47600 for the real downtrend to begin.
Until then, even if it falls, there is a possibility of creating a pull back pattern, so you need to think about a plan to respond to this.
The next period of volatility will be around March 10 (March 9-11).
Note
(BTCUSDT.P 1h chart)If it falls below 5EMA on the 1D chart, you can enter into a SHORT position.
Currently, the 5EMA on the 1D chart is rising to around 64K.
1st: 63725.4
2nd: 59100-61066.2
You need to check if you receive support near the 1st and 2nd levels above.
If it receives support and rises, the SHORT position will be closed.
Note
(BTCUSDT.P 1h chart)A decline below 66395.1 is increasing the chances of touching the 5EMA on the 1D chart.
You need to check the movement for about 1 to 3 days to check whether it is supported or resisted around 66395.1.
To do that, we need to prepare for a decline.
Please refer to the article above.
Note
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
As BTC appears to be supported near important support and resistance points, ETH is rising, showing signs of maintaining the uptrend in the coin market.
It is necessary to confirm whether BTC can continue its upward trend again by following ETH's current upward trend.
The volatility period for ETH is around March 7 (March 6-8).
As we move through this period of ETH volatility, the key will be which direction BTC will move in around 66401.82-67168.12.
(BTCUSDT.P 1h chart)
If BTC sideways around 66395.1, it is expected to touch the 5EMA on the 1D chart.
At this time, if it falls below the 5EMA on the 1D chart and shows resistance, it is expected to show a short-term downward trend.
Otherwise, if it touches the 5EMA on the 1D chart and shows support, it will be an opportunity to buy additional.
This additional purchase should be made from a day trading perspective.
Therefore, if it appears to be falling, it is recommended to confirm the profit by selling the amount of additional coins purchased or by selling the number of coins additionally purchased.
Note
Should we hold on to SHORT or switch to LONG...
Movement around 63725.4 is key.
The StochRSI indicator on the 1D chart has reached the midpoint, showing the start of a shakeout.
From a day trading perspective, SHORT entry occurs when there is resistance below the 5EMA on the 1D chart.
If support is confirmed around the 5EMA on the 1D chart, it is time to enter LONG from a day trading perspective.
If BTC closes at its current position, there is a possibility that the 5EMA on the 1D chart and the HA 5EMA will cross.
At this time,
If 5EMA < HA 5EMA, SHORT
If 5EMA > HA 5EMA, LONG
You must select a position as above.
If you touch the M-Signal on the 1D chart and it rises, you can enter a LONG position from a short-term perspective.
Accordingly, the area around 59100.0-59409.3 is expected to be an important area to select a position.
USDT gap rose and funds inflowed.
USDC is holding its current level.
Accordingly, we can see that the coin market is maintaining an upward trend.
However, since USDT dominance is showing support around 4.16-4.35, it is expected that the upward trend will continue by falling below this range.
Since BTC dominance has not been able to turn into a downward trend, altcoins are likely to react greatly to the decline of BTC.
Altcoins require a quick response, but for BTC or ETH, you need to be careful not to lose your holdings.
If you feel psychological anxiety, it is recommended to secure the number of coins equivalent to the profit by selling the amount equivalent to the purchase principal in installments.
To sell in installments, it is recommended to divide the purchase principal into 3 to 5 equal parts and sell them.
In order for the coin market to begin a downward trend, USDT must first continue its downward gap.
Therefore, until then, you can respond from a day trading perspective or a short-term perspective.
The standard of response is determined by whether you can make your own psychology stable.
Note
The 63725.4 point is an important point, but in order to turn into an upward trend, it is expected to rise above 64429.3.
Since the StochRSI indicator has fallen below the midpoint, even if BTC rises, there is a possibility that it will fall again if the StochRSI indicator enters the oversold zone.
Therefore, if it falls, you need to check if it is supported in the 59100-61066.2 range.
If support is confirmed when the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart rises to the 59100-61066.2 range, it is time to make additional purchases.
If not, it is likely to lead to a further decline.
1st: 56K
2nd round: 53K
You need to check if you receive support near the 1st and 2nd levels above.
Please refer to the previous content for more details.
Note
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)It appears that a new HA-High indicator is about to be created.
If the HA-High indicator is generated, it is expected to fall around it.
Therefore, we need to check whether the HA-High indicator is generated at point 61895.62.
If the price falls near the HA-High indicator, the important thing is whether it receives support or resistance.
Note
(BTCUSDT.P 1h chart)It showed an upward trend, rising above 63725.4-64429.3.
Accordingly, please refer to the information below.
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The 66401.82 point is an important support and resistance point.
Accordingly, if the price holds above 66401.82, further rise is likely.
If the price fails to maintain above 66401.82 and falls, it is likely to fall to around 59053.55-61202.17, so a countermeasure should be sought.
(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
This currently corresponds to a period of volatility for ETH.
Accordingly, we need to see what kind of movement we see by March 8th.
At this time, if it fails to rise above 3900.73, it is expected to fall below 0.618 (3548.07).
Since the BTC volatility period is around March 10th (March 9th-11th), I think it is likely that we will see a big move after the ETH volatility period.
The key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above 69000 during this period of BTC volatility, or whether it will fall to or below the 59053.55-61202.17 range.
If the StochRSI > StochRSI EMA on the BTCUSDT 1D chart does not reach, it will eventually fall, so you need to prepare for this.
Therefore, the most important question is whether it receives support around 66401.82.
Note
The StochRSI indicator is showing signs of entering the oversold zone.
Accordingly, whether it receives support or resistance around 66401.82 has become an important issue.
In trading, it is a good idea to set the oversold range of the StochRSI indicator to 30.
Therefore, the current trading situation has entered the oversold zone.
Therefore, a rise above 66401.82 is likely to lead to a further rise.
If not, it is expected to eventually fall below 63660.11.
It is expected that there will be a buying opportunity when the StochRSI indicator turns positive and StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
If it falls to around 63660.11, the situation should be judged by referring to the movement of the StochRSI indicator.
Note
Price Channel indicators have converged.
Accordingly, it is necessary to check whether the price will rise by following the previous movement and breaking upward through the rising line of the Price Channel indicator.
If the 5EMA on the 1D chart falls, it is likely to touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, so caution is required.
This is the last day of the volatility period for ETH.
If support is found around 3900.73-3962.19, it is expected to rise along the uptrend line.
If it falls below 3900.73, it is expected to fall to around 0.618.
The volatility period for BTC is around March 10 (March 9-11).
Accordingly, we need to see if it can receive support around 66401.82-67031.36 and rise above 69000.
If not, it is expected to fall to around 61202.17.
Since USDT and USDC are maintaining a rising gap, there is a high possibility that you will have an opportunity to buy when the price falls.
Therefore, when it falls, you should check whether it is supported at important support points and seize the opportunity to buy.
In order for the coin market to turn into a downward trend, USDT must show a gap decline, so caution is needed in response.
Note
When BTC appears to be sideways after rising, ETH has been rising and trying to maintain its upward trend.(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
The key is whether it can receive support and rise around 3900.73.
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The volatility period for BTC is March 9-11.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can be supported by rising above 69000 before and after the volatility period.
If ETH fails to rise above 3900.73 or BTC fails to rise above 69000.0, I think the coin market is likely to face volatility.
However, when BTC's StochRSI indicator leaves the oversold range and becomes StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, there is a possibility that it will rise above 69000.0, so you should check the movement.
If prices continue to trend upward or downward, there are limits to using secondary indicators.
To overcome these limitations, it is important to find and draw support and resistance points on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
If the new high (ATH) is being updated, you need to be careful when trading because support and resistance points cannot be found.
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