Bitcoin - Can You Fade the Bear Trap for $34,000?
Updated
It's very dangerous to be bullish on digital currencies. Although the idea that there's some kind of "decentralized" alternative to the central bank fiat and credit card system of monetary control is very romantic, the reality is that mining cartels, which are heavily concentrated in the hands of entities associated with the Chinese Communist Party, run the game.
BTC's development is also centralized in the hands of a corporation. Sure, you can fork, but only the main branch is ever going to be recognized by all the miners, exchanges, developers, and the media. Nobody is going to list your forkcoin, and no one on Wall Street is going to set up a futures market or an ETF around your forkcoin.
This is how it is. In reality, Bitcoin has, since before it was worth much, been in the grasps of a multi-year co-opt, control, and demolish program that is about to come to the final moment of its demolish phase.
The idea is to replace your "legacy" crypto with the much more widely adopted and chic U.S.-backed Central Bank Digital Currency that will underpin the future CCP-emulating social credit system that revolves around rationing and lockdowns "because saving the world from climate change."
For humanity, this is a kind of "reaping what you sow" retribution for decades of failing to reject and eliminate the CCP's Marxist-Leninism and the atheism and degeneracy that come with making yourself a slave to the red regime and failing to tell good from bad and right from wrong.
Bitcoin and Ethereum will exist for a long time after this happens, but you're going to see prices like $90 ETH and $750 BTC again, and they won't be buys for the next moon mission.
There isn't going to be another moon mission. The top is already in. All you have left are bear market rallies.
Even the Universe you're living in one day comes to an end, let alone the first generation of digital currencies that only exist on the computer and were a false prophet that never, at all, intended to "save you" from anything.
Monthly bars show that Bitcoin's second run to
65K and its following behaviour is indicative that we are far, far into a Bump and Run Reversal pattern. This means that $65,000 was the all time high, and is never coming back.
You might not like to hear that. But what a person doesn't like to hear is usually exactly what they need to hear.
The October-November-December dumping-consolidation around $17,000 was also telling. Bitcoin had significant price levels it should have cleared out at $15,000 and(or) $12,000 if a bullish accumulation was to be identified.
The fact that the market makers left this range of a gap and then bounced it back to sweep the August '22 highs tells me that we're going up, for the ultimate purpose of going down, forever.
Weekly bars show us this $25,250 sweep of the August highs and scissor bar pivot is now concrete.
The top of the bullish order block, which is composed from monthly bars, also happens to be right where the daily pivots where sell stops sit under resides. A clever arrangement by the MMs, indeed.
This is a really noticeable area, and gives you a nice short from $23,000 if you can keep the leverage low and fade the weekend chaos, and an even better place to go for a long.
Think about it, when the market sees prices that are 19xxx again, everyone is going to "have confirmation" that "we're going down" because Tether, because Binance, because Nexo, Because Silvergate Bank, because Signature Bank New York, because Circle, because Elvis.
You know, all the things you hear from the effete leftists on Twitter and Reddit will appear to be finally coming true. But they aren't. It's too early for that.
Really, just because the overarching narrative is highly bearish. In equities everyone is expecting a 3,300 point SPX this early in the year, more or less just because the Federal Reserve is going to hike interest rates for a few more months.
Also "because channel." This so-called "technical analysis" stuff gives a lot of convincing ways to lose money.
You're dealing with a psychological "story" on the markets at large, both bearish and bullish, that doesn't make a lot of sense.
So what I propose is about to happen is that the MMs will sweep the $20,000 level and you might see a number as good as 18xxx. This will get longs to capitulate and trap a lot of bears who go hard leveraged short.
I expect the bounce to unfold around the second half of March.
After that, the target is $34,000, which is a healthy sweep of the $32,000 level, determined by monthly bars. I expect this to manifest around June or July.
This gives you an 83% trade long with a time horizon to manifest of only a few months. The key thing is, you need to sell, and never go long on Bitcoin or digital currencies again, if you see this unfold.
What comes next are widespread market crashes that come from the Fed cutting off fiat banks from crypto transactions and the U.S. Treasury putting the boots to every single stablecoin, which also means that Tether will finally be taken down by the DOJ.
First comes $15,000, then $12,000, then $9,000.
This time, you might not see a bounce from $9,000 for a few months, and when you get one, you'll only get fleeting sweeps over $10,000.
This is the situation. Everything comes to its fated end, including the Universe whose air you're relying on to breathe right now, so it's foolish to think that Bitcoin is any different, and it's foolish to think that the "new paradigm" of $25,000+ BTC was going to last.
Seriously, you can buy a pretty nice car for $25,000 USD. Why would anyone who lives in the real world trade that much money for "1 BTC" that only exists as a digit on a wallet app?
This is only what the people who are trapped on Reddit and Discord and aren't working real jobs in the real world with healthy mainstream people believe to be true.
Everyone who lives in reality thinks digital currency is total vaporware.
If the public is going to be interested in digital currency, it's going to be because it has the backing of the Fed, the Treasury, and all the corporations that Blackrock, Vanguard, JP Morgan, Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, etc, happen to have significant ownership of.
So, you get a trade. Very short term, the target is bulls. Short term, the target is bears. Medium term, bears are going to get liquidated, and hard.
Once everyone is bullish again, that's when the guillotine drops.
BTC's development is also centralized in the hands of a corporation. Sure, you can fork, but only the main branch is ever going to be recognized by all the miners, exchanges, developers, and the media. Nobody is going to list your forkcoin, and no one on Wall Street is going to set up a futures market or an ETF around your forkcoin.
This is how it is. In reality, Bitcoin has, since before it was worth much, been in the grasps of a multi-year co-opt, control, and demolish program that is about to come to the final moment of its demolish phase.
The idea is to replace your "legacy" crypto with the much more widely adopted and chic U.S.-backed Central Bank Digital Currency that will underpin the future CCP-emulating social credit system that revolves around rationing and lockdowns "because saving the world from climate change."
For humanity, this is a kind of "reaping what you sow" retribution for decades of failing to reject and eliminate the CCP's Marxist-Leninism and the atheism and degeneracy that come with making yourself a slave to the red regime and failing to tell good from bad and right from wrong.
Bitcoin and Ethereum will exist for a long time after this happens, but you're going to see prices like $90 ETH and $750 BTC again, and they won't be buys for the next moon mission.
There isn't going to be another moon mission. The top is already in. All you have left are bear market rallies.
Even the Universe you're living in one day comes to an end, let alone the first generation of digital currencies that only exist on the computer and were a false prophet that never, at all, intended to "save you" from anything.
Monthly bars show that Bitcoin's second run to
65K and its following behaviour is indicative that we are far, far into a Bump and Run Reversal pattern. This means that $65,000 was the all time high, and is never coming back.You might not like to hear that. But what a person doesn't like to hear is usually exactly what they need to hear.
The October-November-December dumping-consolidation around $17,000 was also telling. Bitcoin had significant price levels it should have cleared out at $15,000 and(or) $12,000 if a bullish accumulation was to be identified.
The fact that the market makers left this range of a gap and then bounced it back to sweep the August '22 highs tells me that we're going up, for the ultimate purpose of going down, forever.
Weekly bars show us this $25,250 sweep of the August highs and scissor bar pivot is now concrete.
The top of the bullish order block, which is composed from monthly bars, also happens to be right where the daily pivots where sell stops sit under resides. A clever arrangement by the MMs, indeed.
This is a really noticeable area, and gives you a nice short from $23,000 if you can keep the leverage low and fade the weekend chaos, and an even better place to go for a long.
Think about it, when the market sees prices that are 19xxx again, everyone is going to "have confirmation" that "we're going down" because Tether, because Binance, because Nexo, Because Silvergate Bank, because Signature Bank New York, because Circle, because Elvis.
You know, all the things you hear from the effete leftists on Twitter and Reddit will appear to be finally coming true. But they aren't. It's too early for that.
Really, just because the overarching narrative is highly bearish. In equities everyone is expecting a 3,300 point SPX this early in the year, more or less just because the Federal Reserve is going to hike interest rates for a few more months.
Also "because channel." This so-called "technical analysis" stuff gives a lot of convincing ways to lose money.
You're dealing with a psychological "story" on the markets at large, both bearish and bullish, that doesn't make a lot of sense.
So what I propose is about to happen is that the MMs will sweep the $20,000 level and you might see a number as good as 18xxx. This will get longs to capitulate and trap a lot of bears who go hard leveraged short.
I expect the bounce to unfold around the second half of March.
After that, the target is $34,000, which is a healthy sweep of the $32,000 level, determined by monthly bars. I expect this to manifest around June or July.
This gives you an 83% trade long with a time horizon to manifest of only a few months. The key thing is, you need to sell, and never go long on Bitcoin or digital currencies again, if you see this unfold.
What comes next are widespread market crashes that come from the Fed cutting off fiat banks from crypto transactions and the U.S. Treasury putting the boots to every single stablecoin, which also means that Tether will finally be taken down by the DOJ.
First comes $15,000, then $12,000, then $9,000.
This time, you might not see a bounce from $9,000 for a few months, and when you get one, you'll only get fleeting sweeps over $10,000.
This is the situation. Everything comes to its fated end, including the Universe whose air you're relying on to breathe right now, so it's foolish to think that Bitcoin is any different, and it's foolish to think that the "new paradigm" of $25,000+ BTC was going to last.
Seriously, you can buy a pretty nice car for $25,000 USD. Why would anyone who lives in the real world trade that much money for "1 BTC" that only exists as a digit on a wallet app?
This is only what the people who are trapped on Reddit and Discord and aren't working real jobs in the real world with healthy mainstream people believe to be true.
Everyone who lives in reality thinks digital currency is total vaporware.
If the public is going to be interested in digital currency, it's going to be because it has the backing of the Fed, the Treasury, and all the corporations that Blackrock, Vanguard, JP Morgan, Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, etc, happen to have significant ownership of.
So, you get a trade. Very short term, the target is bulls. Short term, the target is bears. Medium term, bears are going to get liquidated, and hard.
Once everyone is bullish again, that's when the guillotine drops.
Note
Right now I think the idea is to run back towards $24,000 either near CME open or for Monday.It may sweep out $23,000 in the meantime.
Note
Run to $23,900 was as anticipated. Things look bad. Last day of February tomorrow.News drivers all week. Bearish markets into mid-March is what I anticipate
Note
Crypto and equities breaking down heading into February close is what you want to see for a trade model that's based on the idea of a 25% correction leading into a new bull run.Is very hard with all the time things take to unfold though. Patience is a virtue, I suppose.
Note
Well, that was sudden. Seems like on no news as well.Painful for hopium longs.
Note
PS, Coinbase has scheduled maintenance Saturday at 11.I'm thinking the weekend will be a total blood dumpster to take advantage of trapped longs.
Note
Big Jerome Powell testifies before US Congress for two days starting tomorrow. In my opinion, this is a very likely window for the crypto market to really start its correction.Every month the FOMC minutes are more and more hawkish on stablecoins and Powell's comments are more and more hawkish on stablecoins.
He will beak about destroying them before the Legislature.
Note
Three days of compressed range on both ETH and BTC.Big move is coming.
Note
Bitcoin to take the $20,000 psychological mark imo.I really do believe it's time to fade the bears, precisely because the MMs are about to fade the bulls.
Note
Hit the buy area and then 20% in two days, killing bears positioned short on futures over the weekend.I have reservations though with the bottom being a mere sweep under $20,000 and the daily candle over the old $18,500 pivot being untested.
So there may be a short setup here if you've stayed out of the trade the whole time.
Note
There's a non-zero danger for longs that the breakout is a turtle soup and will reverse.MMs haven't done this kind of move in a while, but it's somewhat concerning that BTC only swept under 20k briefly and stayed away from the old order block.
Note
Watch out for big ass corrections on cryptos.The narrative on a 40% pump over a few days was that these pieces of crap were some kind of hedge against international economic and banking system collapse (top lol, sirs), but now there's no international economic and banking system collapse, is there?
Note
Worth noting that BTC CME Futures printed a shooting star.Generally pretty bearish short term.
Note
With Binance getting hit by the CFTC while price is high, you really should start thinking about selling the pops instead of buying the dips.If crypto is really going to exit pump in the next few months, the opportunity should be used to kill early longers.
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