Good morning everyone and welcome to my daily analysis of Bitcoin. Today I have the 4hr pulled up after a pretty dismal Saturday. We took a little plunge but we have recovered some of that ground over night. But things are looking heavy as far as the candles are concerned. We have been on a steady down trend since we peaked a few weeks ago at 10400. The bulls are likely pretty exhausted after 3 months of ruling the chart. I mean we went to 10400 from 3800 in a few months. That is something to be proud of. We have been in consolidation between the 8200 and 10400 for nearly 2 months. The longer we remain at this level the more indicators will catch up to the candles. Its already happening on the daily and other time frames. I will touch on a few in this analysis.
The first thing I will discuss on the 4hr is the fact that we have been steadily making lower highs over the past month. That is not a bullish signal folks. We all know Bitcoin can surprise us and pump like a bat our of hell. But with the current situation growing more bearish as time passes I would prepare myself for a dip if I were playing this. I see signals that suggest we may recover all the way to 9200-9300 but if you ask me that is the best case scenario. I believe a dip will materialize after the rejection at the 4hr cloud or 4hr 50 MA. That is if we do move up. The 4hr cloud (bottom border) and the 4hr 50 MA is in the 9200 - 9350 range and I imagine one or the other will reject the candles if the bulls try to jump that hurdle.
We touched 8840 yesterday which is exactly where the .236 fib is on the chart. I mentioned yesterday we may find some support on this fib and it showed up. Im not sure it will hold for long though. Things look bearish as the more time passes the more likely we head down as that is currently the path of least resistance on the chart. The 50 MA on the daily is now reversing and on a downward trajectory. This will likely escort the candles down with it if we can even get that high. This also means that the golden cross will reverse and that isnt bullish either. Golden crosses are really hit and miss anyways but a death cross may still deflate an already exhausted market. Only time will tell if that will materialize.
We descended into the weekly cloud in our dip to 8840 yesterday. We have since retaken the top border of the weekly cloud as support but it isnt looking good. Right now the weekly cloud (top border) is support and it is at 9k (approximately) but after the close tonight that border drops to around 8850 and that will likely be support briefly. That is if we can keep the cloud under us. There is no guarantee that will happen either. If we do lose the weekly clouds support that will be a blow to confidence and we will likely see some sell off as a result.
If the bulls want to set off a fomo run they need to reverse this descent and fast. I am looking at the 2.5 year resistance and I see it is around 10150 - 10250 and dropping with each candle. Last time we tested it was when we climbed to 10400. We got rejected by the descending resistance. So the resistance is still active and if we want to see some fomo buying the bulls need to take us to around 10500 or more. This would be like a domino effect if you ask me. Im not holding my breath but I like to be aware of my surroundings so to speak. We still have gaps at 11800 and 7600 so keep that in mind folks. Speaking of gaps there might just be a gap above us after this weekend which could be filled Monday. Nothing is 100% certain as far as that is concerned so if you do want to play the gap game set you a stop loss and be ready to take the profit. I hope you all enjoy your Sunday and I wish you luck on your trades! But WTFDIK right?
TLDR: Wash your hands for the love of GOD
The first thing I will discuss on the 4hr is the fact that we have been steadily making lower highs over the past month. That is not a bullish signal folks. We all know Bitcoin can surprise us and pump like a bat our of hell. But with the current situation growing more bearish as time passes I would prepare myself for a dip if I were playing this. I see signals that suggest we may recover all the way to 9200-9300 but if you ask me that is the best case scenario. I believe a dip will materialize after the rejection at the 4hr cloud or 4hr 50 MA. That is if we do move up. The 4hr cloud (bottom border) and the 4hr 50 MA is in the 9200 - 9350 range and I imagine one or the other will reject the candles if the bulls try to jump that hurdle.
We touched 8840 yesterday which is exactly where the .236 fib is on the chart. I mentioned yesterday we may find some support on this fib and it showed up. Im not sure it will hold for long though. Things look bearish as the more time passes the more likely we head down as that is currently the path of least resistance on the chart. The 50 MA on the daily is now reversing and on a downward trajectory. This will likely escort the candles down with it if we can even get that high. This also means that the golden cross will reverse and that isnt bullish either. Golden crosses are really hit and miss anyways but a death cross may still deflate an already exhausted market. Only time will tell if that will materialize.
We descended into the weekly cloud in our dip to 8840 yesterday. We have since retaken the top border of the weekly cloud as support but it isnt looking good. Right now the weekly cloud (top border) is support and it is at 9k (approximately) but after the close tonight that border drops to around 8850 and that will likely be support briefly. That is if we can keep the cloud under us. There is no guarantee that will happen either. If we do lose the weekly clouds support that will be a blow to confidence and we will likely see some sell off as a result.
If the bulls want to set off a fomo run they need to reverse this descent and fast. I am looking at the 2.5 year resistance and I see it is around 10150 - 10250 and dropping with each candle. Last time we tested it was when we climbed to 10400. We got rejected by the descending resistance. So the resistance is still active and if we want to see some fomo buying the bulls need to take us to around 10500 or more. This would be like a domino effect if you ask me. Im not holding my breath but I like to be aware of my surroundings so to speak. We still have gaps at 11800 and 7600 so keep that in mind folks. Speaking of gaps there might just be a gap above us after this weekend which could be filled Monday. Nothing is 100% certain as far as that is concerned so if you do want to play the gap game set you a stop loss and be ready to take the profit. I hope you all enjoy your Sunday and I wish you luck on your trades! But WTFDIK right?
TLDR: Wash your hands for the love of GOD
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.