Bitcoin / TetherUS
Updated

07/04/25 Weekly Outlook

112
Last weeks high: $88,502.90
Last weeks low: $77,786.89
Midpoint: $83,144.89

Never a dull moment in this game, last week we saw a relatively flat move from Bitcoin as traditional markets continued their heavy sell-offs thanks to the tariff trade war. The high of the week coming from the run up to Trumps tariff announcement, that then retraced as the speech went on and as the week closed a heavy capitulation move down.

As the week begins BTC's price hit as low as $74,500 barely frontrunning the HTF goal of $73,500 to close the inefficiency wick from the US election 6 months ago. For me this is where I start to pay attention to where buyers may be stepping into the market at this HTF support area. Obviously the worry is still in Tradfi, just how low will the SPX, DJI etc go? That's hard to tell but there is certainly a huge amount of fear in the market and fear brings opportunity.

The NY open should be an interesting one and should set the tone for the week, A reclaim of the weekly low sets up yet another SFP long opportunity to then go and test the midpoint, acceptance under the weekly low may provide one last push to close tout the move to $73,000.

The Federal Reserve is having am emergency closed board meeting today too, if an emergency cut to interest rates comes of this to boost growth then BTC will definitely see the benefits of this.

Good luck for the week ahead!
Note
The volatility so far this today has been insane, liquidations left right and center.
Fake news causing the tall wick into $81k before retracing back down but for now the weekly low has been reclaimed.
Headline news in completely controlling of the market at the moment so just keeping an eye on it.
Note
Weekly low reclaimed and 0.25 is resistance, wouldn't be surprised if we trade Mondays range of $81,200 - $74,600 for a little while until the SPX gets a foothold and some form of strength returns.
Note
Looks like a double bottom overnight at $74,600 and now weekly low is being tested as resistance. A V-shaped recovery would be too easy wouldn't it...
Note
Are you not entertained?!
Trump pauses 10% tariffs for 90 days while he takes the fight to China, truly historic stuff.

Your main job in this environment is to survive, do that and opportunities will present themselves,
good luck out there!

Trade closed: target reached
Midpoint hit!

After reclaiming the weekly low now that Trump has paused 10% tariffs for 90 days, BTC has retested the midpoint and for now is resistance. The pre-market is down again so where BTC goes from here is uncertain, I'm not convinced we are out of the woods yet.
Note
Midpoint flipped, can BTC hit 0.75 by the end of the week?

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