Future Outlook with StochRSI and OBV
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I used TradingView's index chart to see the overall flow of BTC.
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(BTCUSD 1M chart)
OBV is showing an upward breakout of the High Line.
Accordingly, we should look at how the High Line is expressed when the candle of the next month is created.
The StochRSI indicator has risen above 50 points, and has changed to a state where StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
Accordingly, we should look at whether it will maintain the current state and show an upward trend.
Looking at the movement of the indicators on the 1M chart, I think it is highly likely that the uptrend will continue.
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(1W chart)
There is some ambiguity in analyzing BTC due to the movement of the 1W chart.
The StochRSI indicator is maintained at the 100 point, and the StochRSI EMA indicator is approaching the 100 point.
As of now, the StochRSI EMA has never touched the 100 point.
Accordingly, I think the pressure for a decline is increasing as time goes by.
The OBV indicator has risen above the high line.
Accordingly, if a high line is created next week, we should see if it enters the high line.
If so, BTC is expected to show a downward trend.
However, the StochRSI and OBV indicators cannot tell the extent of the decline.
Therefore, if the decline begins, there is a possibility that the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1W chart) indicator will be touched.
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(1D chart)
BW(100) indicator is created at 101197.25.
Accordingly, in order to continue the uptrend, the price must rise above 101197.25 to maintain it.
The OBV indicator is near the high line.
Accordingly, when it rises above 101197.25, we need to see if the OBV indicator breaks through the high line upward.
The StochRSI indicator is below 50, and StochRSI < StochRSI EMA.
Accordingly, we need to see if it rises above 50 points and switches to a state where StochRSI > StochRSI EMA and is maintained.
If not, and BTC falls below 95961.82, there is a possibility that it will touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
At this time, if the HA-Low indicator or BW(0) indicator is generated, then the important issue is whether there is support near that indicator.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
After the volatility period around December 3, it is important to see whether the price can be maintained near the important support and resistance area of 95904.28-98892.0 until the next volatility period.
Therefore, the point to watch is whether it can reset the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart while moving sideways unless it falls below 95904.28.
The key point is what I said on the BTCUSDT 1D chart.
If it rises above the BW(100) indicator point of 101109.59 and maintains the price, and if the StochRSI indicator rises above the 50 point and changes to the state of StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, there is a possibility that it will rise further.
However, as I mentioned earlier on the 1W chart, the StochRSI EMA indicator on the 1W chart is approaching the 100 point, so it will eventually show a downward trend.
As explained in the big picture below, the coin market is expected to maintain an upward trend until the end of 2025.
Therefore, I think that even if there is a short-term decline or a downward trend this time, it will eventually rise above the current price.
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Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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Note
If USDT and USDC maintain a gap uptrend, it means that funds are continuously flowing into the coin market.
USDT dominance is expected to rise after falling to around 2.84.
The rise in USDT dominance is likely to be reflected in the fall of the coin market.
The key is whether BTC dominance can fall below 55.01.
To do so, it must fall below the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1M chart) indicator.
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