After yesterday's false start, Bitcoin's long anticipated ETF is finally here. However, it remains to be seen whether this ETF approval will be bullish or not.
In the long-term, definitely. Price action over the next few weeks/months is likely bearish. As mentioned before, I'm expecting a short swift pump towards 48,000$ before hitting two major resistances and dump.
Reasons for this bearish view:
- Strong pump into news. Buy the rumor, sell the news?
- Top yellow resistance of the channel
- 48k resistance, last major resistance before the ATH.
- The ETF approval is a perfect bull-trap for retail traders. Whales have already bought their Bitcoin's in the last year.
The bottom support of the channel seems like a decent bearish target. Potentially even 30k.
I will switch from bear to bull if we can get a weekly close above 50k. This indicates that the 48k resistance has been broken and will decrease the probability of a fake out. Happy to be proven wrong.
For now, be careful for high volatility.
In the long-term, definitely. Price action over the next few weeks/months is likely bearish. As mentioned before, I'm expecting a short swift pump towards 48,000$ before hitting two major resistances and dump.
Reasons for this bearish view:
- Strong pump into news. Buy the rumor, sell the news?
- Top yellow resistance of the channel
- 48k resistance, last major resistance before the ATH.
- The ETF approval is a perfect bull-trap for retail traders. Whales have already bought their Bitcoin's in the last year.
The bottom support of the channel seems like a decent bearish target. Potentially even 30k.
I will switch from bear to bull if we can get a weekly close above 50k. This indicates that the 48k resistance has been broken and will decrease the probability of a fake out. Happy to be proven wrong.
For now, be careful for high volatility.
Note
Previous analyses
Note
BTC hit 49k on the first pump during live ETF trading. Hard rejection for now. Long-term trend is still bullish, but my expectation is playing out relatively well. A weekly close above 50k will invalidate my bearish narrative.Note
BTC looks like it has rejected the 48k-49k resistance area. The two resistances in my analysis have held thus far. A daily close below 40k would in my eyes be a valid confirmation of the reversal.Note
And note the wick to 49k. Exactly as predicted: retail buys the news, whales dump on retailers and push the price back down.Note
Update
Note
BTC below 40k for the first time since December.
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✅Monster Signals: t.me/monster_cryptosignals
🔥Premium Signals: fierytrading.com
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✅Monster Signals: t.me/monster_cryptosignals
🔥Premium Signals: fierytrading.com
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.