Sideways price movement for days can make trading quite boring but also hard to predict where the next move is going to go. Every time the price makes a higher high since the drop down from 9.7k, it’s unable to make a move up to re-test that price point and instead falls to make a higher low.
What I’m seeing out of all this is a rising wedge formation taking place. I could be wrong about this and we are instead forming a larger symmetrical triangle with 9.7k included in the formation.
But if you draw this triangle, it looks like we are already running out of room to complete both the D and E movement of an ABCDE pattern. I won’t totally rule this out however and keep it in the back of my head as we move forward.
For now, sticking with my rising wedge prediction, we can see that bitcoin is due for one more rise up to finally test the 9.7k price again. It’s absolutely possible we break through 9.7k if there is enough bullish momentum but if you look at the CMF and the MACD, both are showing bearish divergences as of right now. Price is making higher highs while both indicators are showing lower highs, so a big drop could be in the works as long as neither of the indicators making a higher high as price makes another higher high. I drew orange lines on both indicators to create this boundary.
Finally, the purple bar pattern you see in the background is the price action that I copied from the second move up to 11.7k back in early March. The fractal just fit price action too nicely to ignore, and the MACD and CMF are also showing the same divergences now as they did in March. If it continues to follow this fractal, then the rising wedge formation makes even more sense here. I’m still sticking to my earlier prediction of a drop down to 8.4-8.5k range, it just seems like it might take a bit longer than I expected. I wouldn’t depend on the fractal playing out the same way once the wedge breaks (if the wedge breaks) to the downside, but I’m hoping it will at least follow it to wave 5 and then continue down to 8.4k. If at any point the 9.7k is broken to the upside with high volume, this entire pattern/prediction is invalidated.
Please remember to hit like if you found this analysis useful! Thanks :)
What I’m seeing out of all this is a rising wedge formation taking place. I could be wrong about this and we are instead forming a larger symmetrical triangle with 9.7k included in the formation.
But if you draw this triangle, it looks like we are already running out of room to complete both the D and E movement of an ABCDE pattern. I won’t totally rule this out however and keep it in the back of my head as we move forward.
For now, sticking with my rising wedge prediction, we can see that bitcoin is due for one more rise up to finally test the 9.7k price again. It’s absolutely possible we break through 9.7k if there is enough bullish momentum but if you look at the CMF and the MACD, both are showing bearish divergences as of right now. Price is making higher highs while both indicators are showing lower highs, so a big drop could be in the works as long as neither of the indicators making a higher high as price makes another higher high. I drew orange lines on both indicators to create this boundary.
Finally, the purple bar pattern you see in the background is the price action that I copied from the second move up to 11.7k back in early March. The fractal just fit price action too nicely to ignore, and the MACD and CMF are also showing the same divergences now as they did in March. If it continues to follow this fractal, then the rising wedge formation makes even more sense here. I’m still sticking to my earlier prediction of a drop down to 8.4-8.5k range, it just seems like it might take a bit longer than I expected. I wouldn’t depend on the fractal playing out the same way once the wedge breaks (if the wedge breaks) to the downside, but I’m hoping it will at least follow it to wave 5 and then continue down to 8.4k. If at any point the 9.7k is broken to the upside with high volume, this entire pattern/prediction is invalidated.
Please remember to hit like if you found this analysis useful! Thanks :)
Note
So this is beginning to look more like an ascending channel than a rising wedge. Price fell last night and fell outside of the fractal a bit, but the price did bounce off the bottom of this new channel. So it is assumed as of now that price will still follow up to wave 5, I just had to re-adjust where it begins. If a breakdown out of this channel happens before wave 5, then we focus on my original target I've had for the past week which is 8.5k. And obviously a breakout above the .618 fib (9.7k) area will invalidate this idea.
I'll update if anything changes.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.