What If We Are in A Bear Market and Don’t Know It?
When a partner cheats, the spouse is the last to know. Could the “Composite Man” is cheating, and we don’t realize it yet?
Let’s look at the evidence. “Facts Not Feelings.”
1. A complete Wyckoff distribution pattern.
2. M.S. confirms we are in a downtrend.
So, why is everyone still expecting an uptrend?
1. Traders and investors are relying on historical patterns such as the four-year cycle.
2. Traders and investors hope the FED will cut rates and boost liquidity.
We need Objective tools
The most objective tool we have is the price. The chart doesn’t lie.
We have two main levels that will serve us to determine if the current trend is still on the downside:
1. The Last LL. The last LL was 49K. If Bitcoin loses the 49K support, it is a point in favor of the Bears. If it finds support above 49K, it is a HL and a point in favor of the Bulls.
2. The Last LH. The ultimate LH is 70K. If the price remains below 70K, we will still be in the bear market.
62.8K Is an intermediate level. This means that if the price breaks above 62.8K, it will increase confidence in a trend change. However, let’s assume that the price will find support at the 45k level and then fail to break above 62.8K it will be all the proof you need that the bear market is here.
What should we do?
The safest course of action is to operate as if we are in a bear market.
What does it mean?
This means that you only trade long when it is obvious that the sellers are exhausted. And you treat every LH as a short opportunity.
Bear markets are Bull markets in reverse. Instead of “buy the dip,” “short the rally.”
Best Wishes
Let’s look at the evidence. “Facts Not Feelings.”
1. A complete Wyckoff distribution pattern.
2. M.S. confirms we are in a downtrend.
So, why is everyone still expecting an uptrend?
1. Traders and investors are relying on historical patterns such as the four-year cycle.
2. Traders and investors hope the FED will cut rates and boost liquidity.
We need Objective tools
The most objective tool we have is the price. The chart doesn’t lie.
We have two main levels that will serve us to determine if the current trend is still on the downside:
1. The Last LL. The last LL was 49K. If Bitcoin loses the 49K support, it is a point in favor of the Bears. If it finds support above 49K, it is a HL and a point in favor of the Bulls.
2. The Last LH. The ultimate LH is 70K. If the price remains below 70K, we will still be in the bear market.
62.8K Is an intermediate level. This means that if the price breaks above 62.8K, it will increase confidence in a trend change. However, let’s assume that the price will find support at the 45k level and then fail to break above 62.8K it will be all the proof you need that the bear market is here.
What should we do?
The safest course of action is to operate as if we are in a bear market.
What does it mean?
This means that you only trade long when it is obvious that the sellers are exhausted. And you treat every LH as a short opportunity.
Bear markets are Bull markets in reverse. Instead of “buy the dip,” “short the rally.”
Best Wishes
Note
Supporting Evidence:
If wave four retraces past 49K which is the 0.5 retracement of wave 3, the likelihood of continuation in wave 5 is reduced.
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