Does BTC go down even more? And what would that do with ALTS
Did BTC make it bottom yet or will we see more red?
If we look at the charts and the strong rejection of the current lows we would like to think we have seen the bottom.
Relative Unrealized Profit
That made me look into the RUP chart (Relative Unrealized Profit) on Chainexposed. If we analyse that chart we can see that the RUP in the green zone has been bottom signs. If we look in the red zon ther was always a top if we got there.
The in the big circle we see a mirror image of 2022 vs 2024 and both can be seen as a H&S structure. Both have the same TT in the green zone. If we take this chart as leading sign we can sugest a uptrend from the current lows to form the right shoulder as drawn in the chart.
The break of the shoulder and neckline would be the sign that we will go down towards the liquidity below the lows. Now this is nothing special in a regular bullmarket. But what if i was too tell you that the first real liquidity for BTC is as far down as 32k...
Yes you did read it correctly. Almost all liquidity between the 56k and 42k where it was for a week or two ago is gone now. So in my opinion there ar two main scenarios possible here.
Scenario 1:
We will see new liquidity from retail investors building up just below the current lows and that will bring enough fuel for the bulls to proceed with the bull run and break the ATH.
Scenario 2:
Retail is so affraid (by FUD and the loses on alts) that they will not have the believe in the uptrend now. Then that would mean they are not likely to buy or go long now. Then the liquidity range below stays rather thin and there is lack of fuel for the bulls. Will that trigger a flash sale all the way down towards the 32k?
What are your thoughts on these scenarios? Please let me know in the comments.
If we look at the charts and the strong rejection of the current lows we would like to think we have seen the bottom.
Relative Unrealized Profit
That made me look into the RUP chart (Relative Unrealized Profit) on Chainexposed. If we analyse that chart we can see that the RUP in the green zone has been bottom signs. If we look in the red zon ther was always a top if we got there.
The in the big circle we see a mirror image of 2022 vs 2024 and both can be seen as a H&S structure. Both have the same TT in the green zone. If we take this chart as leading sign we can sugest a uptrend from the current lows to form the right shoulder as drawn in the chart.
The break of the shoulder and neckline would be the sign that we will go down towards the liquidity below the lows. Now this is nothing special in a regular bullmarket. But what if i was too tell you that the first real liquidity for BTC is as far down as 32k...
Yes you did read it correctly. Almost all liquidity between the 56k and 42k where it was for a week or two ago is gone now. So in my opinion there ar two main scenarios possible here.
Scenario 1:
We will see new liquidity from retail investors building up just below the current lows and that will bring enough fuel for the bulls to proceed with the bull run and break the ATH.
Scenario 2:
Retail is so affraid (by FUD and the loses on alts) that they will not have the believe in the uptrend now. Then that would mean they are not likely to buy or go long now. Then the liquidity range below stays rather thin and there is lack of fuel for the bulls. Will that trigger a flash sale all the way down towards the 32k?
What are your thoughts on these scenarios? Please let me know in the comments.
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